OVERVIEW:According to PAGASA as of 16 September 2025 at 1600H (UTC+7), the area of convection INVEST 99W east of Quezon has developed into tropical depression and was given local name “Mirasol” or internationally named as 23W. The centre of the eye was estimated based on all available data 210 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon, the Philippines.
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT: According to PAGASA, maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central pressure of 1,006 hPa, moving north northwestward at 25 km/h. Strong winds extend outwards up to 180 km from the center.
FORECAST: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #1:
- TRACK: 23W is forecast to continue moving northwestward and will slightly decelerate as it approaches Isabela-Aurora area. On the forecast track, the center of 23W may make landfall in Isabela or northern portion of Aurora, the Philippines, by tomorrow morning (16 September 2025). However, a more north northwestward or northward movement will likely result to no landfall scenario and will just move over the coastal waters of Northern and Central Luzon, the Philippines. By Thursday (18 September) morning, 23W will re-emerge over the Luzon Strait and will continue moving north northwestward until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility between afternoon and evening.
- INTENSITY: 23W will slightly weaken as it traverses the Northern Luzon landmass. Once it is over the West Philippine Sea, it is forecast to intensify and reach tropical storm category by Thursday afternoon or evening.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS):
- TCWS No. 1 (minimal to minor threat to life and property: Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Quirino, the northeastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya, the northern and central portions of Aurora, the northeastern portion of Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.
HAZARDS:
Heavy Rainfall
- 16-17 September afternoon: Moderate to heavy (50-100 mm) in Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, and Aurora
- 17 Sep afternoon -18 September afternoon: Moderate to heavy (50-100 mm) in Batanes, Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte
Severe Winds
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under TCWS No. 1.
- The Southwest Monsoon will bring strong to gale-force gusts (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds) over the southern portion of Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Panay Island, Palawan, Mindoro Provinces,, Camarines Norte, Isabela, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, and Pangasinan.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- PAGASA issues heavy rainfall warnings due to Tropical Cyclone 23W ( “Mirasol”).
- NDRRMC and PAGASA continues to monitor and release advisories and early warning information Tropical Cyclone 23W (“Mirasol”).
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA;
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