FLASH UPDATE #1 – Tropical Cyclone “Crising” (INVEST 96W)
Countries under monitoring: Philippines and Viet Nam
OVERVIEW: On 16 July 2025, the low pressure area LPA 07f (INVEST 96W) east of Catanduanes strengthened into a tropical depression with local name “CRISING.” According to PAGASA, CRISING slightly intensified as it moved northwestward. As of 0400 hrs UTC+7 today, the centre of TC CRISING was estimated based on all available data at 535 km East of Juban, Sorsogon (13.1°N, 128.9°E). CRISING maintained its strength while tracking west northwestward over the waters east of Bicol Region.
STRENGTH, EXTENT, & MOVEMENT: According to PAGASA’s Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 4, 17July at 0400H UTC+7,
- Maximum sustained winds at 55 km/h with gustiness up to 55 km/h, minimum central pressure at 1000 hPa, moving west northwestward at 15 km/h. Strong winds extend outwards up to 300 km from the centre
FORECAST & ANALYSIS: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin 4:
- TRACK – CRISING will move generally northwestward over the next 48 hours. A landfall scenario over mainland Cagayan tomorrow evening to Saturday (19 July) early morning is possible. Afterwards, it will move west northwestward traversing the northern portion of Northern Luzon and may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Saturday (19 July) evening or Sunday (20 July) morning.
- INTENSITY – CRISING is forecast to reach Tropical Storm category today. It is forecast to continue intensifying over the Philippine Sea and may reach Severe Tropical Storm category tomorrow afternoon or evening before its approach to Northern Luzon.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT: As of 0400 hrs UTC+7,
- TCWS No. 1 Warning lead time 36 hours, range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7) is raised over the following areas: Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, the northeastern portion of Aurora (Dilasag, Casiguran, Dinalungan, Dipaculao), Quirino, Kalinga, the eastern portion of Mountain Province (Sadanga, Barlig, Paracelis, Natonin), the eastern portion of Ifugao (Alfonso Lista, Aguinaldo, Mayoyao, Banaue, Hingyon, Lagawe, Lamut), the northeastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya (Kasibu, Quezon, Bagabag, Diadi) and Apayao.
HAZARDS:
- Severe Winds – The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1. The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of CRISING is Wind Signal No. 3.
- The Southwest Monsoon will bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
- Today: Batangas, Quezon, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, Davao Oriental, and Sarangani.
- Tomorrow: Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Basilan, Sulu, Tawi-Tawi, Misamis Occidental, Lanao del Norte, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Dinagat Islands, Davao Occidental, and Davao Oriental
- Heavy Rainfall – Heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone & Southwest Monsoon is issued for the following areas:
- Today (July 17): 100-200 mm in Occidental Mindoro, Antique, and Negros Occidental; 50-100 mm: Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Palawan, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Oriental, Cebu, and Siquijor.
- Tomorrow (July 18): 100-200 mm in Batanes, Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, Kalinga, Isabela, Palawan, Occidental Mindoro, Antique, and Negros Occidental; (50-100 mm) in Metro Manila, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Iloilo, Guimaras, and Negros Oriental
- Saturday (July 19): 100-200 mm in Batanes, Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, La Union, Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Occidental Mindoro, and Antique; 50-100 mm in Kalinga, Mountain Province, Metro Manila, Benguet, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Rizal, Palawan, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Iloilo, Guimaras, and Negros Occidental
- According to PAGASA, the amount of rainfall may cause the following potential impacts:
- 100-200mm rainfall: Numerous flooding events are likely especially in moderate to highly susceptible areas. Landslide likely in moderate to highly susceptible areas
- 50-100mm rainfall: Localised flooding is possible mainly in areas that are urbanised, low-lying, or near rivers. Landslide possible in highly susceptible areas.
- Coastal Inundation
- There is a minimal to moderate risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 2.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands and Isabela.
ANTICIPATED RISK: Current model track guidance (ECMWF) suggest that the tropical depression may follow a westward track towards the Viet Nam East Sea and Northern Viet Nam.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- PHILIPPINES: NDRRMCOC has raised the Alert Status to BLUE ICOW Tropical Depression CRISING. PAGASA continues close monitoring, releases Tropical Cyclone Bulletins, advisories, and conducts regular press briefings on TC CRISING. DENR-MGB has released list of cities, municipalities, and barangays susceptible to rain-induced landslides along the areas with heavy rainfall outlook.
- VIET NAM: VDDMA and NCHMF are closely monitoring the tropical depression, providing news and regular advisories to warn and prepare for its potential impacts
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA;
Viet Nam: NHCMF, VDDMA;
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