FLASH UPDATE #1 – Tropical Cyclone KAJIKI
Countries under monitoring: Lao PDR, Thailand, Philippines, Viet Nam
OVERVIEW: On 19 August 2025, INVEST 90W was monitored east of Eastern Visayas, Philippines. By 20 August, it had intensified into Tropical Depression and made landfall in Casiguran, Aurora, with Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No. 1 raised over parts of Northern Luzon (PAGASA). On 22 August, the Tropical Depression crossed Luzon and re-emerged over the West Philippine Sea, where it strengthened further. By 23 August, the system had intensified into Tropical Storm KAJIKI and later into a Typhoon, tracking west-northwestwards. As of 1000H UTC+7, Tropical Cyclone KAJIKI was centred at 17.4°N, 110.9°E, in Northwest Hoang Sa sea, approximately 580 km from Nghe An and 560 km east of Ha Tinh, Viet Nam (NCHMF).
STRENGTH & MOVEMENT: Strongest wind level 12-13 (118–149 km/h), gust level 15, moving west at 20 km/h (NCHMF).
FORECAST: According to NCHMF update at 1100H UTC+7 today:
- On 24 August 2025 at 2200H UTC+7: Tropical Cyclone KAJIKI will move west-northwest at ~20 km/h, located south of the Bac Bo Gulf (~300 km from Nghe An, 270 km from Ha Tinh). Winds will reach level 13–14, gusts 16.
- On 25 August 2025 at 1000H UTC+7: KAJIKI will be over the sea from Thanh Hoa to Quang Tri, with wind strength at level 12–13, gusts 15.
- On 26 August 2025 at 1000H UTC+7: KAJIKI will move west-northwest, gradually weakening near the Lao PDR–Thailand border (18.9°N, 102.9°E). Winds will be level 6, gusts 8.
- On 26 August 2025 at 2200H UTC+7: KAJIKI will weaken into a low-pressure system over upper Laos (19.2°N, 101.0°E).
HAZARDS:
- LAO PDR – According to the DMH of Lao PDR, KAJIKI is expected to cross central Viet Nam and move into central and northern Lao PDR between the evening of 25 August and the morning of 26 August. The system will bring widespread thunderstorms, with moderate to heavy rainfall and strong winds affecting central and southern provinces, including Vientiane Capital. Hazards include flash floods, river flooding, landslides in upland areas, and localised wind damage. Estimated wind impacts include swaying of small to large trees and breaking of branches in parts of Northern and Central provinces (DMRS).
- THAILAND – According to the TMD, KAJIKI is expected to bring increased rainfall, with heavy to very heavy rain in many areas, along with strong winds, to the upper Northeast, the North, the Central, the East, and the western coast of the South, including Bangkok and its vicinity. TMD further warns of the dangers of heavy to very heavy rain and accumulated rainfall, which could lead to flash floods and landslides, especially in hillside areas near waterways and lowlands. Estimated wind impacts include swaying of small to large trees, some breaking of branches in Northeastern Region (DMRS).
- VIET NAM – From the night of 24 August, NCHMF warns that strong winds will affect Thanh Hoa to Quang Tri (up to level 12, gusts 14–15), and heavy rainfall will be widespread from the Northern Delta to Hue. Rainfall totals are expected at 100–150 mm, with localised extremes exceeding 700 mm in Thanh Hoa–North Quang Tri, creating high risk of flash floods and landslides. Ha Noi and Da Nang are forecast to receive heavy rainfall on 25–26 August, while thunderstorms are likely in Ho Chi Minh City. Rainfall will also extend into upper and Northern Lao PDR, where accumulations of 100–250 mm, locally over 500 mm, are anticipated. Gale to typhoon-force winds (levels 8–13, gusts up to 15) and very rough seas with waves up to 7–9 metres are expected over the Northwest East Sea, including the Hoang Sa archipelago. Hazardous conditions are also expected in the Gulf of Tonkin and along the Thanh Hoa–Hue coast, with storm surges of 0.5–1.5 metres from Hai Phong to Ha Tinh, heightening the risk of flooding in low-lying and coastal areas. Estimated wind impacts include swaying of small to large trees, falling trees, power loss, and moderate wind damage on land, and storm surge (0.3 to 2.7 metres) in coastal areas of heavy rain over 300mm. In Nghe An, there will be moderate rain, heavy rain and thunderstorms with common rainfall of 20-40mm, and some areas with very heavy rain over 80mm.
ANTICIPATED RISK:
- SOUTHWEST MONSOON – Tropical Cyclone KAJIKI is influencing the prevailing Southwest Monsoon. The interaction of these weather systems is anticipated to bring more rainfall across mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines over the coming days.
- INVEST 93W – PAGASA is currently monitoring another low pressure area that formed east of Mindanao. At 0700H UTC+7, it was located about 405 km east of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur. According to PAGASA, its potential to develop into a tropical depression within 24 hours is high.
IMPACTS: As of 23 August 2025, 1900H UTC+7, NDRRMC Situation Report No. 2 on the flooding from the combined effects of the Tropical Cyclone KAJIKI (“Isang”) and the Southwest Monsoon recorded the following impacts:
- 25.7K affected population (6.4K families) in Regions II, V, and XII
- Up to 1.6K displacements and 3 evacuation centres have been activated (445 currently displaced, of which 407 remain in 3 evacuation centres)
- 1 damaged house (partially damaged); 10 road sections and 1 bridge affected (5 road sections already passable)
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- LAO PDR: The DMH and NDMO of Lao PDR are closely monitoring the weather systems. Warnings and regular advisories have been issued to prepare relevant agencies and the public for the effects of Tropical Cyclone KAJIKI.
- PHILIPPINES: NDRRMOC raised its ALERT Status to BLUE for the effects of the Tropical Cyclone and the Southwest Monsoon. Authorities conducted Pre-Disaster Risk Assessments and pre-emptive evacuation prior to the Tropical Cyclone’s impact. NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA, and relevant agencies and partners continue to monitor the weather condition, including the developing low pressure area east of Mindanao.
- THAILAND: The TMD and DDPM are closely monitoring the tropical cyclone and southwest monsoon with regular warning and advisories disseminated to the public to prepare for the effects of the Tropical Cyclone KAJIKI.
- VIET NAM: NCHMF and VDDMA are closely monitoring the tropical cyclone and issue regular warnings and advisories to the public. Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha chaired a meeting to prepare for response to KAJIKI while the VDDMA issued official dispatches to proactively respond to its effects.
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The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Lao PDR: NDMO Lao PDR, DMH;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NHCMF;
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