OVERVIEW: PAGASA is currently monitoring Tropical Cyclone KALMAEGI which developed east of the Philippines and has now intensified into a severe tropical storm. As of 1500H UTC+7, the centre of Tropical Cyclone KALMAEGI has been located at 805 km east of Eastern Visayas.
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT: According to PAGASA, KALMAEGI has maximum sustained winds of 95 km/h near the centre, gustiness of up to 115 km/h, and central pressure of 990 hPa, moving westward at 30 km/h. Strong to gale force winds extend outwards up to 240 km from the centre.
FORECAST: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2 at 1600H UTC+7:
- TRACK: On the track forecast, KALMAEGI will move generally westward over the next three days and make its initial landfall over Eastern Samar or Dinagat Islands tomorrow (03 November) late evening or on Tuesday (04 November) early morning. Afterwards, KALMAEGI will traverse Visayas and northern Palawan before emerging over the West Philippine Sea on Wednesday (05 November) morning or afternoon.
- INTENSITY: KALMAEGI is forecast to continuously intensify and may reach typhoon category within the next 24 hours. Furthermore, it will likely make its initial landfall at or near peak intensity (currently forecasted around 150-165 km/h maximum winds with higher gustiness). Rapid intensification within the next 48 hours is likely. The possibility of reaching super typhoon category is not ruled out based on alternate scenarios and climatological data. While the passage over country will trigger a slight weakening, KALMAEGI is expected to remain as a typhoon throughout its passage over the country.
- PAGASA emphasizes that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS):
- TCWS No. 1 (Warning lead time of 36 hours; Minimal to minor threat to life and property): Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Camotes Islands, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte.
HAZARDS: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2 :
- Severe Winds: In addition to the threats associated with TCWS, the surge of the Northeast Monsoon coinciding with the passage of KALMAEGI will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas not under Wind Signal:
- Tomorrow (03 November) – Most of Cagayan Valley, most of Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Norte, Aurora, Bulacan, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, and Bicol Region;
- Tuesday (04 November) – Most of Cagayan Valley, most of Cordillera Administrative Region, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, most of Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, and Bicol Region.
- Heavy Rainfall: According to PAGASA Weather Advisory No. 5, the following areas are forecast to receive significant rainfall from today until Wednesday afternoon (5 November) due to TC KALMAEGI:
- 100-200mm: 3 November afternoon to 4 November afternoon – Eastern Samar, Southern Leyte, Leyte, Samar, Biliran, Cebu, Bohol, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Negros Occidental, Guimaras, Iloilo, and Capiz; 4 November afternoon to 5 November afternoon – Cebu, Negros Occidental, Guimaras, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, and Palawan.
- 50-100mm: Today to 3 November afternoon – Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Southern Leyte, and Leyte ; 3 November afternoon to 4 November afternoon – Catanduanes, Albay, Masbate, Sorsogon, Northern Samar, Negros Oriental, Aklan, Antique, Romblon, Siquijor, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Bukidnon, Agusan del Sur, and Surigao del Sur; 4 November afternoon to 5 November afternoon – Albay, Masbate, Sorsogon, Marinduque, Occidental Mindoro, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Siquijor, Bohol, Agusan del Norte, Negros Oriental, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Lanao del Sur, Maguindanao del Norte, Maguindanao del Sur, Sultan Kudarat, and Zamboanga del Norte.
- Coastal Inundation: According to PAGASA Storm Surge Warning No. 1: There is a high risk of life-threatening and damaging storm surge within the next 48 hours over the low-lying coastal communities of Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Siquijor, Negros Oriental, Negros Occidental, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, Misamis Oriental, and Camiguin.
ANTICIPATED RISKS:
- Earthquake-affected communities in Northern Cebu will be exposed to typhoon force winds and heavy to very heavy rainfall. Displaced families in tent cities are at high risk of typhoon-associated hazards.
- Ground subsidence, landslides, debris flow, and structural collapse in earthquake affected areas (Northern Cebu) may be triggered by heavy rainfall.
- Lahar may be triggered by heavy rainfall in the vicinities of active volcanoes. PHIVOLCS has reported increased unrest of Mt. Kanlaon in Negros Island Region which is within the cone of TC KALMAEGI’s forecast track.
- PAGASA is currently on La Nina Alert. According to PAGASA, La Nina effects include strong monsoon activity and above-normal rainfall.
- Forecast track indicates that KALMAEGI may make another landfall over Viet Nam on 6 or 7 November 2025.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- NDRRMC has convened its Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment Core Groups to assess impending impacts of Tropical Cyclone KALMAEGI.
- The Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) has released the list of 9,113 barangays susceptible to rain-induced landslides and flooding based on PAGASA Rainfall Data GSM (100mm) and WRF (150mm) 72 hour model to inform the public and local authorities, supporting localised preparedness and response for the incoming tropical cyclone. OCD emphasizes that proper identification of high-risk zones is critical in facilitating timely response actions in ensuring the safety of residents.
- The DSWD has pre-positioned adequate supplies of family food packs (FFPs) and non-food items (NFIs) in all its Field Offices across the country, and ready for augmentation requests from local government units (LGUs) that may be affected by TC KALMAEGI.
- PAGASA conducts regular press briefings and issues regular warnings and advisories.
- The Province of Cebu, in coordination with NDRRMC, has activated a special disaster preparedness and response plan for earthquake-affected Northern Cebu, which includes relocation of families in tent cities to secure evacuation sites, pre-emptive evacuation of families in vulnerable areas and prepositioning of resources to ensure essential services are sustained in evacuation sites.
- NDRRMC and PAGASA continue to monitor and release advisories and early warning information Tropical Cyclone KALMAEGI.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates. The AHA Centre stands ready to support NDRRMC Philippines and other Member States should the need arises.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, MGB, PHIVOLCS, DSWD;
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