FLASH UPDATE #1 – Tropical Cyclone KRATHON (JULIAN)
Country under monitoring: Philippines
OVERVIEW: On 27 September 2024 the area of convection INVEST 97W east of Batanes has developed into tropical depression and was given local name JULIAN by PAGASA. On 28 September, it further intensified into a tropical storm and was given the international name KRATHON. Further intensification occurred as KRATHON reached typhoon category on 29 September. At 0400H UTC+7 today, Batanes and northeastern Babuyan Islands were already experiencing violent winds as KRATHON continued to move over the Balintang Channel. At 1000H UTC+7, The centre of the eye of TC KRATHON was estimated based on all available data over the coastal waters of Sabtang Is., Batanes (20.2°N, 121.8°E).
STRENGTH, EXTENT, & MOVEMENT: According to PAGASA’s Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 18, 30 September at 1000H UTC+7, KRATHON has maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 240 km/h, and central pressure of 940 hPa, moving north northwestward at 10 km/h. Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 580 km from the center.
FORECAST: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin 18
- TRACK: KRATHON is forecast to move generally west northwestward over the Bashi Channel today and will begin recurving tomorrow (1 October) while moving slowly, then turn generally north northeastward to northeastward on Wednesday (2 October) towards the southwestern coast of Taiwan, where it is forecast to make landfall on Wednesday. KRATHON may briefly leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) during this period but bulletins are expected to continue. The typhoon will then cross the rugged terrain of Taiwan and emerge over the waters east of Taiwan by Thursday (3 October) morning. Afterwards, the typhoon will gradually accelerate northeastward towards the East China Sea and exit the PAR region on Thursday.
- INTENSITY: KRATHON will continue intensifying and may reach super typhoon category this afternoon or evening. Interaction with the rugged terrain of Taiwan will trigger a weakening trend prior to landfall, although KRATHON is forecast to remain as a typhoon until it exits the PAR region.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT:
- TCWS No. 4 Warning lead time 12 hrs, range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12) is raised over the following areas: Batanes and the northern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Is., Calayan Is.)
- TCWS No. 3 Warning lead time 18 hrs, range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11) is raised over the following areas: The rest of Babuyan Islands and the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana)
- TCWS No. 2 Warning lead time 12 hrs, range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12) is raised over the following areas: The rest of mainland Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, and the northern and central portions of Ilocos Sur (Sinait, Cabugao)
- TCWS No. 1 Warning lead time 12 hrs, range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12) is raised over the following areas: The rest of Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Benguet, Isabela, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Aurora, the northern and eastern portions of Nueva Ecija (Cuyapo, Rizal, Laur, Pantabangan, Science City of Muñoz, Gabaldon, Carranglan, San Jose City, Lupao, Talugtug, Bongabon, Llanera, Talavera, Palayan City, General Mamerto Natividad), and Polillo Islands
HAZARDS:
- Severe Winds – The wind signals (TCWS) warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are weaker in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction. The peak of devastating typhoon-force winds will be felt over areas under Wind Signal No. 4 between this morning and afternoon. Furthermore, the possibility of hoisting Wind Signal No. 5 is not ruled out.
- Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 4 is hoisted.
- Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted.
- Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted.
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
- Heavy Rainfall
- 30 Sept to 1 Oct noon: Intense to torrential (>200 mm) in Batanes, Babuyan Islands and Ilocos Norte; heavy to intense (100-200 mm) in Mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Apayao, Abra, and Benguet; and moderate to heavy (50-100 mm) in Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, and the rest of Cordillera Region.
- 1 Oct noon to 2 Oct noon: Heavy to intense (100-200 mm) in Babuyan Islands and Batanes; Moderate to heavy rainfall over Ilocos Norte and Ilocos Sur
- 2 Oct noon to 3 Oct noon: Moderate to heavy (50-100 mm) in Batanes and Babuyan Islands
- Coastal Inundation
- There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes, Cagayan, and Ilocos Norte.
Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in areas with significant antecedent rainfall.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- NDRRMCOC has raised the Alert Status to BLUE ICOW TC KRATHON.
- NDRRMC conducted PDRA Analyst Meetings on 27 and 28 September 2024 and PDRA Core Group Meeting on 28 September, and Activated Virtual EOC on 28 September 2024, 1800H UTC+7
- PAGASA conducted press briefings in connection with TC KRATHON.
- PAGASA advises the public and disaster risk reduction and management offices concerned to take all necessary measures to protect life and property. Persons living in areas identified to be highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards are advised to follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
- PAGASA issues localised heavy rainfall warnings, thunderstorm/rainfall advisories, and other severe weather information products issued through PAGASA Regional Services Division.
- DENR-MGB has released list of areas susceptible to rain-induced landslides along the areas with heavy rainfall outlook.
- PAGASA continues to monitor and release advisories and early warning information about these weather disturbances
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA;
Verified news media agencies
