FLASH UPDATE #1 – Tropical Cyclone MAN-YI
Country under monitoring: Philippines
OVERVIEW: According to PAGASA, Tropical Cyclone MAN-YI (local name “Pepito”), has intensified into a super typhoon today. PAGASA warns of potentially catastrophic and life-threatening situation in Northeastern Bicol Region as MAN-YI further intensifies. MAN-YI is the fourth super typhoon to hit the Philippines in the last three weeks, and the 6th super typhoon in the ASEAN Region for 2024. According to PAGASA ‘s most probable scenario, MAN-YI will make an initial landfall in Catanduanes tonight or early morning tomorrow possibly at super typhoon strength, and a second landfall over Quezon-Aurora area. MAN-YI will traverse the Luzon landmass, with winds and rainfall also to affect parts of Visayas and Mindanao. At 1200 HRS UTC+7 today, PAGASA has located the centre of the eye of MAN-YI at 200 km East of Juban, Sorsogon or 180 km East Southeast of Virac, Catanduanes (13.1 °N, 125.8°E).
STRENGTH & MOVEMENT: According to PAGASA as of 1200 HRS UTC+7, MAN-YI Maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h near the centre, gustiness of up to 240 km/h, and central pressure of 920 hPa. Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 300 km from the centre.
FORECAST: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 10 issued at 1300 HRS UTC+7:
- TRACK: MAN-YI is forecast to move generally west northwestward within the next three days before turning generally westward to west southwestward from Monday (18 November) afternoon to Thursday (21 November) early morning. On the track forecast, MAN-YI is more likely to make landfall in the vicinity of Catanduanes tonight or tomorrow (17 November) early morning. However, considering the limits of the forecast confidence cone, a landfall scenario over the eastern coast of Camarines Sur or Albay during the same time frame (if it moves slightly south of forecast track), or along the eastern coast of Quezon or Aurora tomorrow afternoon or evening remains (if it moves slightly north of forecast track) not ruled out. MAN-YI is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on Monday. Regardless of the landfall point, the MAN-YI will move generally west northwestward over the weekend and pass over or near the localities of Bicol Region, Central Luzon, Quezon, and the southern portions of Ilocos Region and Cordillera Administrative Region before emerging over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow evening or Monday morning. PAGASA emphasizes that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
- INTENSITY: MAN-YI is approaching its peak intensity. With radar imagery showing signs of eyewall replacement, the intensity of MAN-YI may begin to maintain or slightly decrease in the next coming hours. However, if the eyewall replacement finishes prior to its passage over Catanduanes, the super typhoon will resume intensifying as forecasted. Nevertheless, MAN-YI will likely make landfall over Catanduanes as a super typhoon at or near peak intensity, and as a super typhoon or typhoon over the Quezon-Aurora area. Significant weakening will occur during the passage of MAN-YI over mainland Luzon tomorrow, but it will likely remain as a typhoon until it reaches the West Philippine Sea.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS: PAGASA has raised TCWS in the following areas:
- TCWS No. 5 (highest warning): Catanduanes
- TCWS No. 4: The northeastern portion of Camarines Sur and the northeastern portion of Albay
- TCWS No. 5: Polillo Islands, the southeastern portion of mainland Quezon, Camarines Norte, the rest of Camarines Sur, the rest of Albay, and the northern portion of Sorsogon, the eastern and central portions of Northern Samar and the northern portion of Eastern Samar
- TCWS No. 2: The southern portion of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, the eastern portion of Pangasinan, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, the southern portion of Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, Rizal, the rest of Quezon, Laguna, Cavite, Marinduque, Burias Island, and Ticao Island, the central portion of Eastern Samar, the northern portion of Samar, and the rest of Northern Samar
- TCWS No. 1: Mainland Cagayan, the rest of Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, the rest of Pangasinan, the rest of Zambales, Batangas, the northern portion of Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, the northern portion of Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, and the rest of Masbate, the rest of Eastern Samar, the rest of Samar, Biliran, the northern and central portions of Leyte, the northeastern portion of Southern Leyte, the northernmost portion of Cebu including Bantayan Islands, and the northernmost portion of Iloilo, the northern portion of Dinagat Islands
HAZARDS:
- Heavy Rainfall
- Today to tomorrow noon (17 November): Intense to torrential (>200 mm) in Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, and Camarines Norte; heavy to intense (100-200 mm) in Albay, Quezon, Northern Samar, and Eastern Samar; moderate to heavy in Sorsogon, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, and Masbate.
- Tomorrow afternoon to Monday afternoon (18 November): Intense to torrential (>200 mm) in Quezon, Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Rizal, Benguet and Pangasinan; heavy to intense (100-200 mm) in La Union, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bataan, Bulacan, Zambales, Metro Manila, Cavite, Laguna, and Camarines Norte; moderate to heavy in Marinduque, Camarines Sur, Batangas, Cagayan, Isabela, Ifugao, Mountain Province, Kalinga, Abra, and Ilocos Sur.
- Severe Winds
- Extreme impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 5
- Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 4.
- Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 3.
- Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where TCWS no. 2 is hoisted.
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under TCWS No. 1.
- Storm Surge
- A high risk of storm surge may occur within the next 48 hours. There is a possibility of life-threatening inundation from rising sea water along with high waves in the low-lying coastal communities that may reach more than 3 metres in Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes; 2.1-3 metres in Isabela, La Union, Pangasinan, Aurora, Batangas, Quezon, Marinduque, Albay, Camarines Sur, Masbate, Sorsogon, Biliran, Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar; and 1-2 metres in Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Bataan, Bulacan, Pampanga, Zambales, Metro Manila, Cavite, Batangas, Sorsogon, and Samar.
PRELIMINARY ANALYSIS: According to NDRRMC Situation Briefing on 15 November:
- About 2M possible affected population due to storm surge.
- About 10.9M people to be affected by flooding and rain-induced landslides.
- Provinces with the highest percentage of barangays to experience rainfall in the next 5 days are Batanes (100%), Catanduanes (98.41%), and Camarines Norte (96.81%).
- Comparable tropical cyclones in terms of intensity and track are Super Typhoon GONI (Rolly) and Typhoon MOLAVE (Quinta) in 2020, and Typhoon RAMMASUN (Glenda) in 2014
ANTICIPATED RISKS: Based on the risk analysis of NDRRMC :
- There is an expected increase in water level for dams within the forecast track.
- Urban areas with waterways traversing settlements are advised to be in high alert for flooding and/or flashfloods.
- Prolonged rains, heightening the risk of severe flooding, river overflow, and landslides, especially in the mountainous or saturated areas, especially in Northern Luzon.
- Coastal and maritime activities will be further disrupted due to rough sea conditions.
- Ongoing response and recovery efforts may be hampered by the forecast weather condition.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- The NDRRMC heightens the relief and preparedness efforts which are being intensified following the series of tropical cyclones that are affecting the Philippines.
- On 15 November, President Ferdinand R. Marcos, Jr. and the NDRRMC conducted a situation briefing ICOW with the effects of TC TORAJI and TC USAGI, and the preparations for TC MAN-YI.
- The national and local governments are taking advantage of the one day window of calm between TC USAGI and TC MAN-YI to continue with ongoing response (for TC YINXING and TC TORAJI) and preparations for TC MAN-YI including the conduct of pre-emptive/forced evacuation starting 15 November, and information dissemination in forms of alerts and warnings to the public utilizing national and local media platforms, and replenishment and prepositioning of emergency relief supplies.
- NDRRMC-OCD instructs its regional offices to maintain real-time communication with PAGASA and ensure the immediate dissemination of critical information from the national government.
- PAGASA continues to urge residents of Northern Luzon to exercise caution on risk of landslides in areas where the ground is already saturated due to consecutive tropical cyclones.
- PAGASA releases regular tropical cyclone bulletins and conducts press briefing to inform the public about the updates and developments on the weather disturbance.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: As of reporting, the NDRRMC is also responding to the impacts of the recent tropical cyclones. According to the NDRRMC, the combined effects of the five tropical cyclones, that affected the Philippines in the past three weeks resulted in 2.6M affected families, 752.2K displaced families, 163 fatalities, 25 missing persons, and 140 injuries. In addition, 140K houses have been damaged and 262 cities and municipalities have been placed under State of Calamity.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global);
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA;
Verified news media agencies
