OVERVIEW: According to PAGASATropical Cyclone Bulletin #6, Tropical Cyclone MATMO (local name “Paolo”), currently at tropical storm category, maintains its strength while westward over the Philippine Sea. At 1200H UTC+7, the centre Tropical Cyclone MATMO was estimated based on all available data at 530 km East of Infanta, Quezon (15.1°N, 126.6°E).
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT:According to PAGASA, MATMO has maximum sustained winds of 75 km/h near the centre, gustiness of up to 90 km/h, and central pressure of 998 hPa, moving west northwestward at 20 km/h. Strong to gale force winds extend outwards up to 350 km from the centre.
FORECAST: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #6:
- TRACK: MATMO is forecast to move westward over the next 12 hours then generally west northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the forecast track, MATMO may make landfall over southern Isabela or northern Aurora tomorrow (03 October) morning. Further southward shift of track is possible depending on the strength of the high pressure area located north of MATMO. After crossing the landmass of Northern Luzon, it will emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow afternoon and will continue moving west northwestward until it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Saturday (04 October) morning.
- INTENSITY: MATMO will continue to intensify while over the Philippine Sea and may reach severe tropical storm category tonight. Further intensification into a typhoon prior to landfall is not ruled out. However, based on the intensity forecast, intensification into typhoon is highly likely once MATMO emerges over the West Philippine Sea.
- PAGASA emphasizes that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS):
- TCWS No. 2 (Warning lead time of 24 hours; Minor to moderate threat to life and property): The central and southern portions of Isabela, the northern portion of Quirino, the northern portion of Nueva Vizcaya, the eastern portion of Mountain Province, Ifugao, and the northern portion of Aurora.
- TCWS No. 1 (Warning lead time of 36 hours; Minimal to minor threat to life and property): Cagayan, the rest of Isabela, the rest of Quirino, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, the rest of Mountain Province, Benguet, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, the northern portion of Zambales, Tarlac, Nueva Ecija, the rest of Aurora, the northern portion of Bulacan, the northern portion of Pampanga, the northern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, the northern portion of Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.
HAZARDS:
- Heavy Rainfall: According to PAGASA Weather Advisory No. 4, the following areas are forecast to receive significant rainfall from today until Saturday noon (4 October):
- >200mm: Today to 3 October noon – Aurora; 3 October noon to 4 October noon – La Union and Benguet. Widespread incidents of severe flooding and landslides expected.
- 100-200mm: Today to 3 October noon – Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, and Nueva Ecija ; 3 October noon to 4 October noon – Aurora, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Pangasinan, Ilocos Sur, and Zambales. Numerous flooding events are likely, especially in areas that are highly urbanized, low-lying, or near rivers. Landslide likely in moderate to highly susceptible areas
- 50-100mm: Today to 3 October noon – Apayao, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Rizal, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, and Sorsogon ; 3 October noon to 4 October noon – Cagayan, Apayao, Ilocos Norte, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Bataan, Pampanga, and Bulacan. Localised flooding is possible mainly in areas that are urbanized, low lying, or near rivers. Landslide possible in highly susceptible areas.
- Coastal Inundation: According to PAGASA Storm Surge Warning No. 5:
- There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 3.0 m within 36 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.
ANTICIPATED RISK:
- Forecast track will pass through areas affected by recent tropical cyclones. Increased vulnerabilities may exacerbate impacts of MATMO.
- According to PAGASA, since the possibility of reaching typhoon category before landfall is not ruled out, the worst case scenario is TCWS Wind Signal No. 4 (Significant to severe threat to life and property).
- Forecast track indicate that MATMO may make another landfall over Northern Viet Nam.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- NDRRMOC maintains RED alert status as response operations continue in 16 Regions affected by TCs MITAG, RAGASA, BUALOI, and the Southwest Monsoon, while also coordinating response for the M6.9 Earthquake in Cebu and conducting preparedness measures for the anticipated effects of Tropical Cyclone MATMO.
- NDRRMC has convened its Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment Core Groups to assess impending impacts of Tropical Cyclone MATMO.
- The Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) has released the list of 2,586 barangays susceptible to rain-induced landslides and flooding based on PAGASA Rainfall Data GSM (100mm) and WRF (150mm) 72 hour model to inform the public and local authorities, supporting localised preparedness and response for the incoming tropical cyclone. OCD emphasizes that proper identification of high-risk zones is critical in facilitating timely response actions in ensuring the safety of residents.
- PAGASA conducts regular press briefings and issues regular warnings and advisories to
- NDRRMC and PAGASA continue to monitor and release advisories and early warning information Tropical Cyclone MATMO.
The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor developments in coordination with NDRRMC-OCD, and remains on standby should the Government of the Philippines welcome assistance from ASEAN.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS);
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA, MGB;
Verified news media agencies
