FLASH UPDATE #1 – Tropical Cyclone MAWAR (Betty)
Country under monitoring: Philippines
OVERVIEW: The AHA Centre through the DMRS is monitoring Super Typhoon MAWAR (Local Name Betty) which entered PAR on Saturday, 27 May 2023, at 01:00 UTC+7. Currently MAWAR is equivalent to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
MOVEMENT & INTENSITY: According to PAGASA, MAWAR maintains its strength while moving west-northwestward at 30 km/h with maximum sustained winds of 195 km/h near the centre and gustiness of up to 240 km/h.
FORECAST:
Track – MAWAR is forecasted to track generally west-northwestward. MAWAR will turn northwestward and decelerate as it moves over the waters east of Extreme Northern Luzon on 29 May. MAWAR may eventually become almost stationary when it will be closest to Batanes islands (i.e., within 250-300 km) on 30-31 May. Meteorological models do not expect a landfall in the Philippines.
Intensity – MAWAR is forecast to remain as a super typhoon over the weekend. MAWAR may begin weakening on 29-30 May.
TCWS: At most TCWS no. 1 – Wind threat Strong Winds (minimal to minor threat to life and property): The eastern portion of Cagayan including Babuyan and Camiguin Islands and the eastern portion of Isabela.
HAZARDS:
Accumulated Rainfall
At most more than 200mm over Batanes,; 100-200 mm over Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union; 50-100 mm over Apayao, over CAR and the northern portion of mainland Cagayan. Forecast rainfall are generally higher in elevated or mountainous areas
Severe winds – Strong winds (strong breeze to near gale strength) will be experienced within the areas where Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal No.1 is currently in effect.
Rough Seas – In the next 24 hours, the eastern seaboards of Luzon and Visayas will experience moderate to rough (1.5 to 3.5 m) seas, which may become rough to very rough (2.5 to 5.0 m). The northern seaboard of Luzon may also experience moderate to rough seas (1.5 to 3.0 m) this morning through afternoon and rough seas (2.5 to 4.0 m) beginning tonight.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- On 27 May 2023, NDRRMC-OCD is on ALERT Status RED Day 2 for TC MAWAR
- NDRRMC-OCD conducted Weather Update and Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) to assess the potential risk and discuss the preparations for TC MAWAR.
- NDRRMC-OCD has activated 9 response clusters (Logistics; Food and NFI; Health; Law and Order; Emergency Telecoms; IDP Protection; Camp Coordination and Camp Management; Shelter; and Education), and put 3 response clusters on standby
- The AHA Centre is already in close coordination with NDRRMC.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS);
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA;
Verified news media agencies.
