FLASH UPDATE #1 – Tropical Cyclone PABUK
Countries under monitoring: Brunei Darussalam, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam
OVERVIEW: In the afternoon of 23 December, Tropical Depression 28W, located northwest of the Truong Sa Archipelago, intensified into Tropical Storm “PABUK.” Previously INVEST 98W, the system moved northeast from the waters north of Sarawak, Malaysia, passed over the sea north of Brunei Darussalam, and then curved north-northwest into the West Philippine Sea. It continued to develop as it shifted westward toward the Viet Nam East Sea. According to NCHMF, at 1600 HRS UTC+7, the centre of the TC PABUK was located at about 11.3 N, 112.4 E in the northwest area of Truong Sa archipelago.
STRENGTH & INTENSITY: According to NCHMF
- Maximum sustained winds of 62-74 km/h near the centre and gustiness of up to level 10
- Moving west northwest at 5-10 km/h
FORECAST: According to NCHMF
- In the next 24 hours, PABUK is forecast to move westward at 5-10 km/h with level 8 winds and gusts up to level 10 on the southwestern sea of the Central East Sea.
- In the next 48 hours, it will move west southwest at 5-10km, gradually weakening into a tropical depression on the sea from Phu Yen to Ba Ria-Vung Tau.
- In the next 60 hours, it will continue moving west southwest at 10-15 km/h and gradually weakening into a low pressure area on the sea from Binh Thuan to Tra Vinh.
HAZARDS:
- Brunei Darussalam – BDMD released an advisory on occasional heavy showers with risk of flash flood at low-lying and flood prone areas.
- Malaysia – According to JMM, rain and thunderstorms are expected in several areas in Sabah and Sarawak.
- Philippines – According to PAGASA, severe winds and rough seas will persist in the coasts and waters of northern and western Luzon.
- Viet Nam – NCHMF cautions of strong winds, rough seas, and high waves in the sea area from Phu Yen to Ba Ria-Vung Tau (including Phu Quy island).
ANTICIPATED RISK:
- Viet Nam – According to DMRS, at most, the winds from TC PABUK may cause small trees to sway in the coastal areas from Qui Nhon to Phan Thiet. At most, 25 mm – 76 mm of rainfall may be expected over the Central and Southern Regions under the influence of TC PABUK.
IMPACTS:
- Philippines – Heavy rainfall brought by TC PABUK resulted to flooding in MIMAROPA Region. As of 23 December, the DSWD recorded 36.9K affected persons (12.2K families) in Oriental Mindoro and Palawan, including Puerto Princesa City and Kalayaan Islands. Of these, 799 have been displaced and 610 are being served in 8 evacuation centres
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- Brunei Darussalam – The BDMD closely monitors and releases advisories about risks associated with heavy rainfall and gusty thunderstorms.
- Malaysia – JMM closely monitors and releases regular updates and advisories on the weather situation and risks of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms.
- Philippines
- Viet Nam
- NCHMF closely monitors and releases regular updates and advisories about the weather situation.
- On 21 December, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development issued Official Dispatch No. 9764/CD-BNN-DD on responding to tropical depression in the East Sea. The VDDMA organizes a serious duty shift (24/7); monitors and transfers disaster forecasts and warnings to localities for proactive prevention and response.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Brunei Darussalam: BDMD;
Malaysia: JMM;
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA, DSWD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
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