FLASH UPDATE #1 – Tropical Cyclone “QUERUBIN” (INVEST 96W) and Shear Line
Countries under monitoring: Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines
OVERVIEW: PAGASA has upgraded the area of convection (INVEST 96W) east of Mindanao into a tropical depression with local name “QUERUBIN.” At 1000 HRS UTC+7, the centre of the eye of QUERUBIN was estimated at 195 km East of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur (08.5 °N, 128.1 °E ). In addition, the Shear Line continues to affect eastern sections of the Philippines since the first week of December. According to PAGASA, the Shear Line and QUERUBIN (and their interaction) will potentially bring heavy or intense rainfall over several areas in Visayas and Mindanao, even those far from the projected path of the tropical depression.
STRENGTH & INTENSITY: According to PAGASA’s Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 4
- Maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the centre and gustiness of up to 55 km/h
- Moving north northeastward at 10 km/h
FORECAST: According to PAGASA,
- TRACK: Generally, QUERUBIN is forecast to north northwestward or northward over the waters east of Mindanao within the next 24 hours.
- INTENSITY: QUERUBIN is forecast to weaken into a remnant low pressure area. Tomorrow through Sunday (22 December), the remnant low pressure area of QUERUBIN will traverse Mindanao, Sulu Sea, and Palawan. Due to the weak nature of its circulation, the track forecast of QUERUBIN may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone. Although a weakening scenario is expected, possible re-development into a tropical depression may occur once the remnant low of QUERUBIN reaches the West Philippine Sea.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS IN EFFECT: As of 18 Dec, 1000 HRS UTC+7, TCWS No. 1 (Warning lead time 12 hrs, range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h) is raised in Surigao del Sur.
HAZARDS:
Indonesia
- According to BMKG, indirect impacts are moderate to heavy rainfall, strong winds, and high waves (rough seas) in North Maluku and North Sulawesi.
Malaysia
- JMM forecasts thunderstorms in Sabah.
Philippines
- Severe Winds – Minimal to minor threat to life and property in areas under TCWS No. 1. The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of QUERUBIN is Wind Signal No. 1.
- Heavy Rainfall – Heavy or intense rainfall over several areas in Visayas and Mindanao, even those far from the projected path of the tropical depression, due to the combined effects of the Shear Line and QUERUBIN:
- Today to 19 Dec noon: Heavy to intense (100-200 mm) in Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, and Surigao del Sur; Moderate to heavy (50-100 mm) in Bicol Region, Quezon, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Bohol, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Misamis Oriental, Davao Oriental
- 19 Dec noon to 20 Dec noon: Heavy to intense (100-200 mm) in Eastern Visayas, Sorsogon, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte; Moderate to heavy (50-100 mm) in Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Albay, Catanduanes, Masbate, Romblon, Aklan, Capiz, Negros Occidental, Cebu, Bohol, Camiguin, Misamis Oriental, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, and Surigao del Sur
- 20 Dec noon to 21 Dec noon: Heavy to intense (100-200 mm) in Eastern Visayas, Catanduanes, Albay, and Sorsogon; Moderate to heavy (50-100 mm) in Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Masbate, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Western Visayas, Negros Island Region, Central Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Agusan del Norte, Dinagat Islands, and Surigao del Norte.
ANTICIPATED RISK:
- Flooding – In the Philippines, numerous flooding events are likely, especially in areas that are urbanized, low lying, or near rivers. The effects of QUERUBIN and the shearline may exacerbate the impacts in areas already affected by the shear line. In Indonesia (North Sulawesi and North Maluku) and Malaysia (Sabah), flooding and rainfall associated hazards may be triggered if significant rainfall occurs
- Rain-induced Landslides – significant rainfall may induced landslides in susceptible areas.
- Lahar Flow – In the Philippines, heavy rainfall is expected in areas near Kanlaon in Negros Island, increasing the risk of lahar flow alongside volcanic hazards from ongoing unrest. As of 17 Dec, the NDRRMC reports that 44.1K people have been affected by the eruption, with 18K displaced, including 15.4K in 32 evacuation centers.
EFFECTS OF SHEAR LINE IN THE PHILIPPINES: Since 1 Dec, the shear line has been affecting Regions II, V, VI, and VII. To date, the DSWD has recorded the following impacts:
- 208K affected persons (50.6K families).
- 2.39K persons are still displaced, of which 2.26K are staying in 22 evacuation centres
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
Indonesia
- BMKG closely monitors and releases advisories.
Malaysia
- JMM closely monitors and provides advisories.
Philippines
- PAGASA continues to provide regular advisories and conduct press briefings about TC QUERUBIN and the Shear Line.
- DENR-MGB and NDRRMC-OCD released the list of areas susceptible to rain-induced landslides and floods in the regions affected by TC QUERUBIN.
- PHIVOLCS has also released lahar flow warning for the communities surrounding Mt. Kanlaon. The NDRRMC-OCD has ordered the complete evacuation of residents within Kanlaon’s danger zone due to ongoing volcanic activity and increased lahar flow risks from expected rainfall from QUERUBIN.
- Authorities are providing assistance to affected communities and displaced individuals. DSWD has delivered USD 79K in aid.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Indonesia: BMKG;
Malaysia: JMM;
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Verified news media agencies;
Verified news media agencies