OVERVIEW: Tropical Cyclone RAGASA, currently at Super Typhoon strength, has continued to intensify in the last 24 hours. According to PAGASA, as of 0400H UTC+7, the centre of Tropical Cyclone RAGASA has been located based on all available data at 245 km east of Calayan, Cagayan, maintaining its strength as it moves closer to Babuyan Islands.
STRENGTH, EXTENT, AND MOVEMENT: According to PAGASA’s Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 20 issued at 0400H UTC+7 :
- Maximum sustained winds at 205 km/h with gustiness up to 250 km/h, minimum central pressure at 915 hPa, moving west northwestward at 20 km/h. Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 600 km from the centre
FORECAST: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 20 issued at 0400H UTC+7:
- TRACK: RAGASA will begin to turn westward today towards Babuyan Islands. On the forecast track, the center of RAGASA may pass close or may make landfall over Babuyan Islands between noon and early afternoon today. It may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow (23 September) morning.
- INTENSITY: RAGASA may maintain its strength or further intensify before it approaches the Babuyan Islands.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS):
- TCWS No. 5 Warning lead time 12 hours, range of wind speeds: 185 km/h (Beaufort 12) is raised over the following areas: The northern portion of Babuyan Islands (Babuyan Isl., Didicas Isl., Panuitan Isl., Calayan Isl.)
- TCWS No. 4 Warning lead time 12 hours, range of wind speeds: 118 to 184 km/h (Beaufort 12) is raised over the following areas: The southeastern portion of Batanes (Basco, Mahatao, Ivana, Uyugan, Sabtang), the rest of Babuyan Islands, and the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan (Santa Ana).
- TCWS No. 3 Warning lead time 18 hours, range of wind speeds: 89 to 117 km/h (Beaufort 10 to 11) is raised over the following areas: The rest of Batanes, the northern and central portions of mainland Cagayan, the northern and central portions of Apayao, and the northern and central portions of Ilocos Norte.
- TCWS No. 2 Warning lead time 24 hours, range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9) is raised over the following areas: The rest of Cagayan, Isabela, the rest of Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the northern portion of Benguet, the northeastern portion of Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and the northern portion of La Union
- TCWS No. 1 Warning lead time 36 hours, range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7) is raised over the following areas: Quirino, the rest of Nueva Vizcaya, the rest of Benguet, the rest of La Union, Pangasinan, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Tarlac, Pampanga, Zambales, and the northern portion of Quezon (General Nakar) including Polillo Islands.
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HAZARDS:
Severe Winds
The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
- Extreme impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 5.
- Significant to severe impacts from typhoon-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 4 is hoisted.
- Moderate to significant impacts from storm-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 3 is hoisted.
- Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted.
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
The Southwest Monsoon will bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
- Today: Metro Manila, Central Luzon (areas not under wind signal), CALABARZON, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Visayas, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, Zamboanga Peninsula, BARMM, SOCCSKSARGEN, and Davao Region.
- Tomorrow (23 September): Metro Manila, Central Luzon (areas not under wind signal), CALABARZON, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Dinagat Islands.
- Wednesday (24 September): Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Bicol Region, MIMAROPA, and Panay Island.
Heavy Rainfall
Heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone RAGASA and the Southwest Monsoon is issued for the following areas today:
- >200 mm: Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Abra, and Apayao
- 100-200 mm: La Union, Kalinga, Isabela, and Occidental Mindoro
- 50-100 mm: Pangasinan, Benguet, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Pampanga, Bulacan, Zambales, Metro Manila, Bataan, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Rizal, Oriental Mindoro, and Palawan.
According to PAGASA, the amount of rainfall may cause the following impacts:
>200mm rainfall: Widespread incidents of severe flooding and landslides expected.
100-200mm rainfall: Numerous flooding events are likely especially in moderate to highly susceptible areas. Landslide likely in moderate to
highly susceptible areas.
50-100mm rainfall: Localised flooding is possible mainly in areas that are urbanised, low-lying, or near rivers. Landslide possible in highly
susceptible areas.
Coastal Inundation
There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights exceeding 3.0 m within the next 24 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, and Ilocos Sur.
ANTICIPATED RISK:
- PAGASA is also monitoring another low pressure area, LPA 09f (INVEST 92W) located about 1,485 km east of Northeastern Mindanao (at 0100H UTC+7). According to PAGASA, this low pressure area has medium potential of developing into a tropical depression within the next 24 hours.
- Forecast rainfall may be higher in mountainous and elevated areas. Moreover, impacts in some areas may be worsened by significant antecedent rainfall.
- Based on extended track forecasts, after crossing the waters of extreme Northern Luzon, RAGASA may continue moving generally westward and may reach Northern Viet Nam and Northern Lao PDR between 25-27 September 2025 (PAGASA, NCHMF).
- According to PAGASA, most climate models combined with expert judgements suggest 70% chance of La Niña forming in October-December (OND) 2025 season and is likely to persist until December 2025 – February 2026 (DJF 2025-26) season.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- On 19 September 2025, the NDRRMCOC raised the Alert Status from BLUE to RED to closely monitor, consolidate and to ensure prompt coordination with concerned agencies and offices.
- Food and non-food items, mobile kitchens, and mobile command centres have been prepositioned strategically in preparation for the possible impacts of TC RAGASA.
- The Department of Local and Interior Government has directed local government units to implement preemptive evacuations in areas highly susceptible to storm surges, flooding, and landslides, to strictly enforce no-sail policy to protect fisherfolk and travelers, and to ensure that evacuation centers are powered, stocked, and safe for evacuees. Other measures include enforcement of liquor bans in high-risk areas, and clearing of waterways, monitoring dams and quarry sites, and securing critical infrastructure.
- NDRRMC and PAGASA conducts regular press briefings to update the public about the developments of the weather conditions and preparations for the potential impacts of the tropical cyclone.
- PAGASA and relevant science agencies closely monitors the weather conditions and associated hazards and provides regular advisories and warnings to the public
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA;
Viet Nam: NCHMF;
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