OVERVIEW: According to PAGASA, INVEST 96W strengthened into a Tropical Depression with local name “RAMIL.” As of 1000H UTC+7, the centre of Tropical Depression RAMIL was estimated based on all available data at 760 km East of Virac, Catanduanes (13.2°N, 131.2°E). According to Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2 at 1200H UTC+7, RAMIL slightly intensified while moving over the Philippine Sea.
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT: Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the centre, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa, moving southwestward at 25 km/h. Strong to gale force winds extend outwards up to 350 km from the centre.
FORECAST: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2,
- TRACK: RAMIL is forecast to move generally westward for the next 24 hours before turning west northwestward towards the area of Central-Southern Luzon. On the forecast track, the center of RAMIL may make landfall over Catanduanes tomorrow (18 October) afternoon. It will continue moving west northwestward and may make landfall in Aurora or Quezon on Sunday (19 October) morning. After landfall, RAMIL may traverse the rugged terrain of Northern or Central Luzon and will emerge over the West Philippine Sea by Sunday afternoon or evening and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Monday (20 October) morning or afternoon. A southward shift of the track could lead to a different landfall area and inclusion of more localities under Wind Signal.
- INTENSITY: RAMIL will continue to intensify while over the Philippine Sea and may reach tropical storm category tomorrow within the next 12 hours. Further intensification into a severe tropical storm prior to landfall is not ruled out. As RAMIL exits the Luzon landmass, further intensification is likely as it traverses the West Philippine Sea.
- PAGASA emphasizes that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS):
- TCWS No. 1 (Warning lead time of 36 hours; Minimal to minor threat to life and property): The eastern and southern portions of Quezon including Pollilo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias Island, and Ticao Island, Northern Samar, the northern portion of Eastern Samar, the northern portion of Samar.
HAZARDS:
- Heavy Rainfall: According to PAGASA Weather Advisory No. 2, the following areas are forecast to receive significant rainfall from today until Sunday noon (20 October):
- 100-200mm: Tomorrow noon to 19 October noon – Isabela, Aurora, Quezon, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes. Numerous flooding events are likely, especially in areas that are highly urbanized, low-lying, or near rivers. Landslide likely in moderate to highly susceptible areas
- 50-100mm: Today to 18 October noon – Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar; 18 October noon to 19 October noon – Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Cagayan, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, Laguna, Marinduque, Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar; 19 October noon to 20 October noon – Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales.
- Coastal Inundation: According to PAGASA Storm Surge Warning No. 1, there is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 2.0 m within 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar.
ANTICIPATED RISK:
- According to PAGASA, the highest Wind Signal that will likely be hoisted throughout its passage is Wind Signal No. 2. However, the possibility of reaching severe tropical storm category before landfall is not ruled out, the worst case scenario is Wind Signal No. 3.
- According to PAGASA, La Nina conditions are present in the Tropical Pacific. Higher chances of above normal rainfall in October 2025 to February 2026 are expected, most especially along the eastern section of the country. This can be due to increased chance of tropical cyclone activity within the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) and combinations of rain-bearing weather systems, which may cause floods, flashfloods and rain-induced landslides in susceptible areas.
- Forecast track indicate that RAMIL may continue moving generally westward toward the Viet Nam East Sea.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- NDRRMOC maintains RED alert as response operations continue for M6.8 Earthquake in Cebu and M7.4 and M6.8 Earthquakes in Davao Oriental, while also leading and coordinating preparedness activities for the incoming tropical cyclone.
- NDRRMC–OCD Regional Offices along the forecast influence of TC RAMIL are conducting pre-disaster risk assessments and preparedness measures.
- PAGASA conducts regular press briefings and issues regular warnings and advisories.
- NDRRMC and PAGASA continues to monitor and release advisories and early warning information Tropical Cyclone RAMIL
The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor developments, in coordination with NDRRMC-OCD, and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA;
Verified news media agencies
