FLASH UPDATE #1 – Tropical Cyclone TORAJI (Nika)
Country under monitoring: Philippines
OVERVIEW: On 9 November 2024, the Low Pressure Area east of Southern Luzon developed into a Tropical Depression which further intensified into a tropical storm with international name “TORAJI.” According to PAGASA, at 1900 HRS UTC+7, the centre of Tropical Cyclone TORAJI (local name Nika), currently a severe tropical cyclone, was estimated based on all available data including Baler and Daet Weather Radar, at 335 km East Northeast of Infanta, Quezon or 330 km East of Baler, Aurora (15.4°N, 124.7°E). On PAGASA’s track forecast, TORAJI may make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora tomorrow (11 November) morning or early afternoon.
STRENGTH & MOVEMENT: According to PAGASA as of 1900 HRS UTC+7, TORAJI has maximum sustained winds of 110 km/h near the centre, gustiness of up to 135 km/h, and central pressure of 980 hPa. Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 340 km from the centre. TORAJI is moving west northwestward at 15 km/h.
FORECAST: According to PAGASA as of 1900 HRS UTC+7:
- TRACK: TORAJI is forecast to move generally west northwestward throughout the forecast period. On the track forecast, it may make landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora tomorrow (11 November) morning or early afternoon. Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone. The tropical cyclone will then traverse the landmass of mainland Northern Luzon and emerge over the West Philippine Sea tomorrow evening. Afterwards, TORAJI will continue moving west northwestward over the West Philippine Sea and exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday (12 November) afternoon.
- INTENSITY: TORAJI is forecast to reach typhoon category today and may reach its peak intensity of around 130 km/h prior to landfall. A short period of weakening is expected as TORAJI traverses the landmass of Luzon due to land interaction. Re-intensification may occur over the West Philippine Sea.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS: According to Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 8 released at 1900 HRS UTC +7, PAGASA has raised TCWS in the following areas:
- TCWS No. 3 in the southeastern portion of Isabela and the northern portion of Aurora
- TCWS No. 2 in the southern portion of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, the northeastern portion of Pangasinan, the central portion of Aurora, the southern portion of mainland Cagayan, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, and the northern portion of Nueva Ecija
- TCWS No. 1 for the rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the rest of Apayao, the rest of Ilocos Norte, the rest of Pangasinan, the rest of Aurora, Tarlac, the northern and central portions of Zambales, the rest of Nueva Ecija, Pampanga, Bulacan, Metro Manila, Rizal, the eastern portion of Laguna, the eastern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, and the northeastern portion of Albay
HAZARDS:
- Heavy Rainfall
- Tonight to tomorrow evening (11 November): Heavy to intense (100-200 mm) in Aurora and Isabela; moderate to heavy (50-100 mm) in Cagayan, Apayao, Abra, Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, Quezon, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur.
- Tomorrow evening to Tuesday (12 November): Intense to torrential (>200 mm) in Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Kalinga, and Aurora; heavy to intense (100-200 mm) in Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, Abra, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Quirino, and Nueva Vizcaya; moderate to heavy (50-100 mm) in Quezon, Tarlac, Pangasinan, La Union, and Nueva Ecija
- Severe Winds
- Moderate to significant impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under TCWS No. 3.
- Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where TCWS no. 2 is hoisted.
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under TCWS No. 1.
- The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of TORAJI is Wind Signal No. 4.
- Coastal Inundation
- There is a moderate to high risk of storm surge may occur in the next 48 hours in the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, La Union, Pangasinan, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Zambales, Aurora, Quezon including Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.
ANTICIPATED RISKS:
- Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in areas with significant antecedent rainfall.
- Forecast rainfall may be higher in mountainous and elevated areas. Moreover, impacts in some areas maybe worsened by significant antecedent rainfall.
- PAGASA is also closely monitoring a low pressure area (INVEST 94W). At 1300 HRS UTC+7, it was located 2,020 km east of Eastern Visayas. As of this reporting time, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has upgraded INVEST 94W into a tropical depression with forecast track similar to TC TORAJI.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- The NDRRMCOC is on RED Alert Status ICOW TC TORAJI, in addition to the impacts of Tropical Cyclones TRAMI, KONG-REY, and YINXING.
- Relief and preparedness efforts are being intensified as series of tropical cyclones and low pressure areas are monitored by PAGASA.
- The NDRRMC urges LGUs to use geohazard maps to better prepare for disasters and guide evacuations.
- The Mines and Geoscience Bureau and NDRRMC-OCD have disseminated the list of barangays that are highly susceptible to rain-induced landslides and flood in provinces along the path of TC TORAJI.
- PAGASA releases regular bulletins and conducts press briefings to inform the public about the updates and developments on TC TORAJI and other active weather disturbances.
- PAGASA, relevant agencies, and concerned local governments continue to closely monitor the weather disturbances and associated hazards and issues regular advisories.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: As of reporting, the NDRRMC is also responding to the impacts of the following tropical cyclones:
- Tropical Cyclones TRAMI (Kristine) and KONG-REY (Leon): Latest NDRRMC Situation Report recorded 9.6M affected persons (2.4M families), 617K displaced persons, 160 dead, 21 missing persons, and 135 injured.
- Tropical Cyclone YINXING (Marce): Latest NDRRMC Situation Report recorded 261.8K affected persons (76.6K families), 26.8K displaced persons, 1 dead, 1 missing, and 1 injured.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global);
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA;
Verified news media agencies
