FLASH UPDATE #1 – Tropical Cyclone TRAMI (Kristine)
Country under monitoring: Philippines
OVERVIEW: According to PAGASA, Tropical Cyclone TRAMI (local name Kristine), at tropical depression level, entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility on 21 October. On 22 October, Tropical Cyclone TRAMI intensifies into a tropical storm level. As of 1000 HRS UTC+7, the centre of the eye was estimated based on all available data at 335 km East of Virac, Catanduanes, the Philippines.
STRENGTH & MOVEMENT: According to PAGASA as of 1000 HRS UTC+7, TRAMI moving west-northwestward 10 km/h. Maximum sustained winds of 65 km/h near the centre, gustiness of up to 80 km/h, central pressure of 994 hPa, and strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 720 km from the centre.
FORECAST: According to PAGASA as of 1000 HRS UTC+7:
TRACK
- TRAMI is forecast to move generally northwestward until it makes landfall over Isabela or northern Aurora, the Philippines, on 23 Oct evening or 24 Oct early morning.
- TRAMI will then cross the mountainous terrain of Northern Luzon and emerge over the waters west of Ilocos Region on 24 Oct afternoon or evening.
INTENSITY:
- TRAMI is forecast to gradually intensify into a severe tropical storm before making landfall. Then, TRAMI will slightly weaken while crossing Northern Luzon.
- Over the West Philippine Sea, TRAMI may reach typhoon category before exiting the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on 25 Oct.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS: At most TCWS No. 2 was raised over Catanduanes, Luzon. TCWS No. 1 raised over the most of Luzon, Visayas (Eastern Samar, Northern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, and Southern Leyte), and Mindanao (Dinagat Islands and Surigao del Norte including Siargao – Bucas Grande Group).
IMPACTS: as of the reports from NDRRMC on 22 Oct at 0700 HRS UTC+7
- A total of 8 seaports were affected over CALABARZON
- A total of 81 cities / municipalities with class suspension over CALABARZON and Region 6
HAZARDS:
Heavy Rainfall
- Intense to torrential rain (>200 mm) over Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar.
- Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm) over Masbate, Samar, Eastern Samar, Isabela, and Quezon.
- Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards with significant antecedent rainfall.
Severe Winds
- Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where TCWS no. 2 is hoisted.
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under TCWS No. 1.
- The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of TRAMI is TCWS No. 3 (moderate to significant), considering the possibility of rapid intensification of TRAMI
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- On 21 October at 1600HRS UTC+7, NDRRMOC alert level is on RED (Immediate Emergency Response).
- NDRRMC has *activated the Charlie protocol (the highest level of emergency preparedness and response) in 7 regions (CAR, Regions 2, 3, 5, 8, Calabarzon, and MIMAROPA – high-risk areas in the event of an emergency) in response to the potential impacts of TRAMI.
- NDRRMC also activated virtual EOC on 21 October.
- NDRRMC conducted Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) Analyst and Core Group Meetings on 21 October.
- The Philippine Ports Authority (PPA) and the Philippine Coast Guard (PCG) are on high alert for the potential impact of TRAMI
- The NDRRMC-OCD actively disseminates weather advisories and monitors the status of the Dam, as well as major river systems and tributaries.
- PAGASA continues to monitor and release advisories and early warning information about these weather disturbances
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS);
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA;
Verified news media agencies
