FLASH UPDATE #1 – Tropical Cyclone USAGI (Ofel)
Country under monitoring: Philippines
OVERVIEW: According to PAGASA, Tropical Cyclone USAGI (local name Ofel), currently at typhoon level, continues to intensify over the Philippine Sea east of Aurora. At 1900 HRS UTC+7, the centre of the eye of Tropical Cyclone USAGI was estimated based on all available data including from Daet Weather Surveillance Radar at 425 km East of Baler, Aurora (16.0°N, 125.6°E).
STRENGTH & MOVEMENT: According to PAGASA as of 1900 HRS UTC+7, USAGI has maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the centre, gustiness of up to 160 km/h, and central pressure of 970 hPa. It is currently moving west northwestward at 20 km/h.
FORECAST: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 8 issued at 1900 HRS UTC+7:
- TRACK: USAGI is forecast to move west northwestward to northwestward over the Philippine Sea before making landfall along the eastern coast of Cagayan or Isabela tomorrow (14 November) afternoon. It will then emerge over the Luzon Strait on Friday (15 November), pass close to or make landfall over Babuyan Islands, then turn northeastward on Saturday (16 November) towards the sea east of Taiwan. Regardless of the position of the landfall point, it must be emphasized that hazards on land and coastal waters may still be experienced in areas outside the landfall point or forecast confidence cone. It must also be emphasized that the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone, especially the portion wherein USAGI will be moving northeastward.
- INTENSITY: USAGI is forecast to steadily intensify within 24 hours and possibly make landfall during its peak intensity. Its landfall will trigger a weakening trend, which will continue for the rest of the forecast period.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS: PAGASA has raised TCWS in the following areas:
- TCWS No. 2 in Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the northern and eastern portions of Isabela, Apayao, and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte
- TCWS No. 1 in Batanes, the rest of Isabela, Quirino, the northern portion of Nueva Vizcaya, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, the rest of Ilocos Norte, and the northern portion of Aurora
HAZARDS:
- Heavy Rainfall
- Tonight to tomorrow evening (14 November): Intense to torrential (>200 mm) in Cagayan and Isabela; heavy to intense (100-200 mm) in Apayao and Kalinga; moderate to heavy in Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, and Aurora.
- Tomorrow evening to Friday evening (15 November): Intense to torrential (>200 mm) in Batanes and Cagayan; heavy to intense (100-200 mm) in Ilocos Norte; moderate to heavy in Apayao and Abra.
- Severe Winds
- Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where TCWS no. 2 is hoisted.
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under TCWS No. 1.
- The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of USAGI is Wind Signal No. 4.
- Coastal Inundation
- There is a moderate to high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights reaching 1.0 to 3.0 m in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, and northern Aurora.
ANTICIPATED RISKS:
- Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in areas with significant antecedent rainfall.
- Due to high antecedent rainfall, areas near slopes and mountain ranges are at higher risk of landslides or mudflows. PAGASA warns of ground saturation due to consecutive typhoons that brought heavy to torrential rainfall in Northern Luzon.
- PAGASA is also closely monitoring Tropical Cyclone MAN-YI which is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) tomorrow.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- The NDRRMC-OCD leads relief and preparedness efforts which are being intensified following the series of tropical cyclones that are affecting the Philippines.
- NDRRMC-OCD instructs its regional offices to maintain real-time communication with PAGASA and ensure the immediate dissemination of critical information from the national government.
- The Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) proactively supplies and replenishes food packs to areas affected be recent tropical cyclones and to be potentially affected by the incoming typhoons.
- The Mines and Geoscience Bureau and the NDRRRMC-OCD continues to disseminate the list of barangays that are highly susceptible to rain-induced landslides and flood in provinces that are forecast to be affected by the incoming tropical cyclones.
- PAGASA continues to urge residents of Northern Luzon to exercise caution on risk of landslides in areas where the ground is already saturated due to consecutive tropical cyclones.
- PAGASA releases regular tropical cyclone bulletins and conducts press briefing to inform the public about the updates and developments on the weather disturbance.
- Relevant authorities and concerned local governments closely monitor updates and coordinate with PAGASA and other ministries.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: As of reporting, the NDRRMC is also responding to the impacts of the following tropical cyclones:
- Tropical Cyclones TRAMI (Kristine) and KONG-REY (Leon): NDRRMC Situation Report dated 10 November at 0700 HRS UTC+7 recorded 9.6M affected persons (2.4M families), 617K displaced persons, 160 dead, 21 missing persons, and 135 injured in Regions 1, 2, 3, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, 5, 6, 8, 9, 11, 12, CARAGA, BARMM, CAR, and NCR.
- Tropical Cyclone YINXING (Marce): NDRRMC Situation Report dated 13 November at 0700 HRS UTC+7 recorded 387.5K affected persons (110.8K families), 265 currently displaced persons, one missing, and one injured in Regions 1, 2, and CAR.
- Tropical Cyclone TORAJI (Nika): NDRRMC Situation Report dated 13 November at 1900H UTC+7 recorded 208.3K affected persons (55.9K families), 38.6K displaced persons, and two injuries in Regions 1, 2, 3, 5, and CAR
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global);
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA;
Verified news media agencies