FLASH UPDATE #1 – Tropical Cyclone WUTIP, INVEST 94W, & Southwest Monsoon
Countries under monitoring: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam
OVERVIEW: On 6 June 2025, the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) began monitoring a low pressure area, INVEST 92W, in the east of Eastern Visayas in the Philippines. INVEST 92W moved westward, crossed the Luzon landmass as it enhanced the prevailing Southwest Monsoon. It gradually developed into a tropical depression on 10 June and further intensified into Tropical Storm WUTIP by 11 June as reported by Viet Nam’s National Centre for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF). During this period, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon continued to bring significant rainfall to central and southwestern parts of the Philippines. As of 1900 hrs UTC+7 today, the centre of TC WUTIP was located in the Hoang Sa archipelago, at 16.7°N – 111.4°E. Meanwhile, PAGASA also detected the formation of another low-pressure area, LPA06b (INVEST 94W), located 490 km east of Casiguran Aurora, Philippines.
MOVEMENT & INTENSITY: TC WUTIP maintains maximum sustained winds around 65km/h, moving West Northwestward at 15 km/h (NCHMF).
FORECAST & ANALYSIS:
- TC WUTIP – According to NCHMF, in the next 24 hrs, TC WUTIP is likely to strengthen as it moves west northwest to the sea south of Hainan Island. In 48 hours, it is expected to shift to the north-northwest direction to the vicinity west of Hainan. By the afternoon of 14 June, it is forecast to track north-northeastward, weakening over mainland China. While current track models do not indicate landfall over Viet Nam, the cone of uncertainty does not rule out a potential landfall over the Northern Viet Nam (NCHMF, JTWC).
- INVEST 94W – According to PAGASA‘s Tropical Cyclone Threat Potential forecast dated 11 June, the low pressure area is likely to move generally in the west northwestward direction. There is a medium potential for development into a tropical cyclone within 24-48 hours
HAZARDS & ANTICIPATED RISKS:
- CAMBODIA – According to the Ministry of Water Resources and Meteorology (MOWRAM), while TC WUTIP is not expected to directly impact Cambodia, its influence on the Southwest Monsoon will bring cloudy conditions, light to moderate rain, thunderstorms, and gusty winds across most of the country.
- LAO PDR – The Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) reports that TC WUTIP and the Southwest Monsoon may cause moderate to heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and thunderstorms. These conditions could lead to landslides, flash floods, and damage to trees, billboards, and power lines.
- PHILIPPINES – PAGASA forecasts moderate to heavy rainfall in the next 24–48 hours due to the Southwest Monsoon, particularly over the western parts of Central and Southern Luzon, Bicol Region, Metro Manila, Eastern and Western Visayas, and Negros Island. Flooding is likely in low-lying, urban, and river-adjacent areas, with landslides expected in moderately to highly susceptible zones. Antecedent rainfall may worsen impacts. Heavy rain near Mt. Mayon, Mt. Bulusan (Bicol), and Mt. Kanlaon (Negros) could also trigger lahar flows.
- THAILAND – The Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) advises that although TC WUTIP will not directly enter Thailand, it will strengthen the Southwest Monsoon, leading to increased rainfall in the eastern parts of the northeastern region. Some areas may experience heavy to very heavy rain and strong waves in the Andaman Sea and the upper Gulf of Thailand.
- VIET NAM – NCHMFexpects TC WUTIP to bring strong winds and high waves to the Northwest East Sea, the Hoang Sa area, offshore from Quang Tri to Quang Ngai, and the Gulf of Tonkin. Heavy to very heavy rainfall (100–250mm, exceeding 450mm in some areas) is expected in the central Central Region, and moderate to heavy rainfall (70–150mm, exceeding 200mm in some areas) in the northern Central Highlands
IMPACTS:: As of 11 June 2025, 0700H UTC+7, NDRRMC Situation Report No. 2 on the flooding and landslides from the combined effects of the INVEST 92W (now TC WUTIP) and the Southwest Monsoon recorded the following impacts:
- 16.5K affected population (4.9K families) in Regions 3, 7, 9, 11, 12, and BARMM, with 1 reported injury
- Up to 5.6K displacements and 19 evacuation centres have been activated (3.8K currently displaced, of which 3.4K are in 9 evacuation centres)
- 151 damaged houses (143 partially, 8 totally)
- 12 road sections and 3 bridge sections affected, of which 1 road section and 1 bridge are not yet passable
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- NDRRMC-OCD Philippines raised its ALERT Status to BLUE for the combined effects of INVEST 92W (now TC WUTIP) and Southwest Monsoon. A total of 70 families in high risk areas were pre-emptively evacuated in anticipation of the impacts of the severe weather conditions. NDRRMC continues to monitor the situation, disseminate advisories, and coordinate with relevant authorities and stakeholders.
- On 10 June 2025, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment of Viet Nam issued Official Dispatch No. 2969/CD-BNNMT on proactively responding to natural disasters in the East Sea and Document No. 2992/BNNMT-DD on proactively responding to heavy rains, risks of floods, inundation, flash floods, and landslides in the Central, Central Highlands, and Southern regions as reported by VDDMA Viet Nam.
- The national hydrometeorological agencies of Cambodia (MOWRAM), Lao PDR (DMH), Philippines (PAGASA), Thailand (TMD), and Viet Nam (NCHMF) are closely monitoring the weather situation and regularly providing weather updates and early warning advisories to the public.
- NCDM Cambodia, NDMO Lao PDR, NDRRMC Philippines, DDPM Thailand, and VDDMA Viet Nam, are closely monitoring the weather advisories and conducting close coordination and preparedness and response measures related to the development of these weather disturbances
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Cambodia: NCDM, MOWRAM;
Lao PDR: NDMO Lao PDR, DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: NHCMF, VDDMA;
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