FLASH UPDATE #1 – Tropical Cyclone YINXING (Marce)
Country under monitoring: Philippines
OVERVIEW: According to PAGASA, Tropical Cyclone YINXING (local name Marce), currently at typhoon level, is expected to make landfall and traverse Babuyan Islands or the northern portions of mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and Apayao or pass very close to these areas from tomorrow afternoon to Friday (8 November) early morning. At 1200 HRS UTC+7, YINXING remains slowly moving over the waters east of Cagayan, with the centre of the eye estimated based on all available data at 295 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (18.0°N, 124.4°E).
STRENGTH & MOVEMENT: According to PAGASA as of 1300 HRS UTC+7, YINXING has maximum sustained winds of 150 km/h near the centre, gustiness of up to 185 km/h, and central pressure of 970 hPa. Strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 680 km from the centre. YINXING is moving westward slowly.
FORECAST: According to PAGASA as of 1300 HRS UTC+7:
- TRACK: YINXING is forecast to move generally west northwestward slowly today (6 November) over the waters east of Cagayan before gradually accelerating westward tomorrow (7 November) through Saturday (9 November) over the Babuyan Channel and the northern portion of the West Philippine Sea. On the forecast track, YINXING will make landfall and traverse Babuyan Islands or the northern portions of mainland Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, and Apayao or pass very close to these areas from tomorrow afternoon to Friday (8 November) early morning. YINXING may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) region on Friday evening. The surge of the northeasterly wind flow will result a more southwestward movement during the weekend;
- INTENSITY: YINXING is expected to continue intensifying and may reach its peak intensity today before its passage over the Babuyan Channel. Slight weakening is expected due to possible interaction with the terrain of mainland Luzon, although YINXING will remain as a typhoon throughout its passage within the PAR region. The surge of the northeasterly wind flow will trigger a continuous period of weakening during the weekend;
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS: PAGASA has raised TCWS in the following areas:
- TCWS No. 3 in the northeastern portion of mainland Cagayan
- TCWS No. 2 in Batanes, the rest of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of Isabela, Apayao, the northern portion of Kalinga, the northern portion of Abra, Ilocos Norte, and the northern portion of Ilocos Sur
- TCWS No. 1 for the rest of Ilocos Sur, La Union, the northwestern portion of Pangasinan, the rest of Abra, the rest of Kalinga, Mountain Province, Ifugao, Benguet, the rest of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, and the northern portion of Aurora
HAZARDS:
- Heavy Rainfall
- Tomorrow: Intense to torrential (>200 mm) in Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte; heavy to intense (100-200 mm) in Batanes and Abra; moderate to heavy (50-100 mm) in Isabela, Ilocos Sur, Kalinga, Pangasinan, and Mountain Province.
- Friday (8 Nov): Intense to torrential (>200 mm) in Apayao, Ilocos Norte, and Cagayan; heavy to intense (100-200 mm) in Ilocos Sur, Abra, and Batanes; moderate to heavy (50-100 mm) in Kalinga, La Union, Pangasinan, Benguet, and Mountain Province
- Severe Winds
- Moderate to significant impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 3.
- Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where TCWS no. 2 is hoisted.
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under TCWS No. 1.
- The highest Wind Signal which may be hoisted during the occurrence of YINXING is Wind Signal No. 4.
- Coastal Inundation
- There is a high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak surge heights exceeding 3.0 m above normal tide levels in the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, and La Union.
ANTICIPATED RISKS:
- Under these conditions, flooding and rain-induced landslides are likely, especially in areas that are highly or very highly susceptible to these hazards as identified in hazard maps and in areas with significant antecedent rainfall.
- Based on the forecasted track of TC YINXING, the areas at risk have recently been severely impacted by Tropical Cyclone KONG-REY.
- Latest model track forecasts (ECWMF, UKM) indicate that YINXING may continue moving westward and may approach Central Viet Nam
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- The NDRRMCOC is on RED Alert Status ICOW TC YINXING, in addition to the impacts of Tropical Cyclones TRAMI and KONG-REY.
- The Inter-Agency Coordinating Cell (IACC) has reconvened as the Philippine Government prepares for TC YINXING.
- On 5 Nov, Secretary of National Defense and OCD Chair Gilberto Teodoro led the NDRRMC Preparedness Meeting for TC YINXING. Frontline agencies have been mobilized; forced evacuations are urged in high risk areas.
- The Mines and Geoscience Bureau has disseminated the list of barangays that are highly susceptible to rain-induced landslides and flood in provinces along the path of TC YINXING.
- PAGASA releases regular tropical cyclone bulletins and conducts press briefing to inform the public about the updates and developments on TC YINXING.
- PAGASA continues to closely monitor and release regular updates and advisories.
- Relevant authorities and concerned local governments closely monitor updates and coordinate with PAGASA and other ministries.
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION: As of reporting, the NDRRMC is also responding to the impacts of Tropical Cyclones TRAMI (Kristine) and KONG-REY (Leon). As of 6 Nov at 0700 HRS UTC+7, NDRRMC reported 8.9M affected persons (2.3M families), 711K displaced persons, 151 dead persons, 21 missing persons, and 131 injured. Approximately 257M USD worth of damage has been reported. Data collection on the impacts and damages are still ongoing. For the detailed impact report, please refer to NDRRMC’s Situation Report for TC TRAMI (Kristine) and KONG-REY (Leon).
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global);
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA;
Verified news media agencies
