FLASH UPDATE #2 – Southwest Monsoon, Tropical Cyclones PRAPIROON (Butchoy) and GAEMI (Carina)
Country under monitoring: Philippines
OVERVIEW:
According to PAGASA, at 0400H UTC+7 24 July, Typhoon GAEMI (Carina) further intensified as it headed towards Taiwan. Since 11 July 2024, the Southwest Monsoon, enhanced by TC PRAPIROON (Butchoy) and TC GAEMI has brought moderate to heavy rains over different provinces in the country. At 1600H UTC+7, PAGASA elevated the level of TC GAEMI to Super Typhoon as it continued to track northwestward. Meanwhile, the Southwest Monsoon continued to bring heavy to intense rainfall over most of western, central, and northern regions of Luzon, including the National Capital Region. At 2200H UTC+7, PAGASA reported that GAEMI has weakened into a typhoon as it looped near the coast of Taiwan.
MOVEMENT & INTENSITY: According to PAGASA’s update at 2200H UTC+7, 24 July:
Maximum sustained winds of 175 km/h near the centre and gustiness of up to 215 km/h moving westward at 15 km/h.
FORECAST:
According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin 21 for GAEMI, Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal are currently raised in the following:
TCWS 2 (Minor to moderate threat to life and property): Batanes
TCWS 1 (Minimal to minor threat to life and property): Babuyan Islands, the northern portion of mainland Cagayan and the northern portion of Ilocos Norte
HAZARDS:
Heavy Rainfall – According to PAGASA, GAEMI is now less likely to directly bring heavy rainfall over any portion of the country. However, the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by GAEMI will bring moderate to intense rainfall over various localities in the western portion of Luzon today through Saturday:
- July 25: the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by GAEMI will bring heavy to intense rains (100-200 mm) over Zambales, La Union, Pangasinan, and Benguet while moderate to heavy rains (50-100 mm) are expected over Metro Manila, Bulacan, Pampanga, Cavite, Batanes, Babuyan Islands, rest of Ilocos Region, Abra, Bataan, and Occidental Mindoro
- July 26: moderate to heavy rains (50-100 mm) may be expected over Zambales, Bataan, Pangasinan, and Benguet
- July 27: moderate to heavy rains (50-100 mm) are possible over Zambales and Bataan
Severe Winds – The Southwest Monsoon enhanced by CARINA will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds):
- 25 July: Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, the eastern portion of Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, Western Visayas, Negros Occidental, and Northern Samar
- 26 July: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Nueva Vizcaya, Quirino, the eastern portion of Isabela, Central Luzon, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, Bicol Region, and Western Visayas.
- 27 July: Batanes, Ilocos Region, Zambales, Bataan, Marinduque, Romblon, Lubang Island, and Kalayaan Islands.
IMPACTS: Based on NDRRMC situation report as of 24 July, the following impacts hade been recorded:
- 883K affected population (180K families) in 15 regions
- 612K displacements; 90 evacuation centres have been activated
- 8 fatalities, 2 injuries, 1 missing
- 245 damaged houses (80 partially, 53 totally)
- 96 road sections, 13 bridge sections, 11 seaports, and 1 airport affected
- 1.4K hectares of agricultural land affected, of which 352 ha have no chance of recovery
- Related incidents reported: 12 landslides, 423 floods, toppled and uprooted trees, maritime incident, drowning, liquefaction, water spout, and strong winds.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- NDRRMC conducted Pre-Disaster Risk Assessment (PDRA) Analysts and Core Group Meetings on 20 and 21 July 2024.
- On 22 July, the NDRRMOC Alert Status was raised to RED Aletrt due to the combined effects of Tropical Cyclone GAEMI (Butchoy), PRAPIROON (Carina), and Southwest Monsoon.
- As of reporting Pinamalayan (Oriental Mindoro), Jose Abad Santos (Davao Oriental), Kabacan (Coatabato), Pikit (Cotabato), and the National Capital Region (NCR) were declared under the State of Calamity.
- As of 24 July at 0700 HRS UTC+7, a total of 29.1M USD worth of assistance has been provided to affected communities over Regions 6, 7, 10, 12, MIMAROPA, and CARAGA. A total of 49.2M USD worth of standby stockpiles and standby funds prepositioned and available from DSWD and OCD (of which 43M USD worth are Food and Non-Food Items and 6.2M USD worth are standby funds).
- The search and rescue or retrieval operations for the missing persons are ongoing amid the heavy rainfall due to the southwest monsoon enhanced by GAEMI and PRAPIROON. In addition, a total of 4,467 Search Rescue and Retrieval (SRR) personnel on Standby from BFP and PCG.
- 1.3M USD worth of medical logistics available from DOH Central Office, and CHDs 2, 6, 8, and 10.
- PAGASA continuously monitors and provides weather updates and advisories to all stakeholders. Emergency Alert and Warning Messages were also disseminated to affected provinces.
- As of 24 July, the AHA Centre has maintained coordination with the NDRRMC as the Centre prepares to dispatch DELSA relief items from the DELSA Satellite Warehouse in Quezon City, the Philippines. The NDRRMC requested an amount of 2.5K ASEAN Family Kits, 12.5K Personal Hygiene Kits, 2.5K Shelter Repair Kits, 1 Generator Set, 2 Water Filtration Units, 2 Telescopic Lighting with Generator, and a Water Tank with 5K litre capacity worth 372.4K USD for dispatch and distribution to the affected communities.
- The United States, Australia, China, and Canada Embassies in Manila have expressed their sympathies and offered assistance to the Philippine Government. Additionally, the Japanese Ambassador, EU Ambassadors, and United Arab Emirates have conveyed messages of condolences to the Philippines.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA;
Verified news media agencies;
