FLASH UPDATE #2 – Tropical Cyclone 16W (INVEST 98W)
Countries under monitoring: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Philippines, Thailand, Viet Nam
OVERVIEW: INVEST 98W (previously TC GENER in the Philippines) has left the Philippine Area of Responsibility and has tracked westward toward the Viet Nam East Sea. According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) bulletin issued at 0500H UTC+7 on 19 September, TC 16W strengthened into a tropical storm. NCHMF reported that as of 0700H UTC+7, strong winds were already experienced specifically in the following areas: Con Co (Quang Tri), there were strong winds of level 6, gusting to level 8; at Hoanh Son (Ha Tinh), there were strong winds of level 6, gusting to level 8; at Dong Hoi (Quang Binh), there were strong winds of level 7. In addition, from the night of 18 September, moderate rain, heavy rain, and in some places very heavy rain were experienced in the North and Central Central regions, specifically: Hoa Bac (Da Nang) 152mm; Bach Ma (Thua Thien Hue) 270mm, Huong Phu (Thua Thien Hue) 249mm; Drakrong (Quang Tri) 112mm. At 0700H UTC+7 today, the centre of TC 16W was at approximately 17.5 degrees North latitude; 108.7 degrees East longitude, approximately 190 km east of Quang Binh-Quang Tri.
STRENGTH & MOVEMENT: According to NCHMF, as of 19 September at 0700H UTC+7, the strongest wind near the center of the storm was level 8 (62-74 km/h), gusting to level 10; moving mainly westward at a speed of approximately 20 km/h.
FORECAST: According to Viet Nam’s NCHMF :
- On 19 September at 1300H, TC 16W will move westward at about 20-25 km/h, on coastal waters from Quang Binh to Thua Thien Hue with level 8 intensity and level 10 gusts.
- On 19 September at 1900H, TC 16W will continue moving westward at 20 km/h, on land in the area from Quang Binh to Quang Tri with level 6 intensity and level 10 gusts.
- On 20 September at 0700H, it will move west northwest at 15-20km/h, gradually weakening into a low pressure area over central Lao PDR.
HAZARDS & ANTICIPATED RISKS:
- Cambodia
- MOWRAM Cambodia forecasts that under the influence of these weather disturbances, over the next week, the upper Mekong River in Cambodia will continue to rise and will flow into the canals and lowland.
Lao PDR
- According to DMH Lao PDR, TC 16W is forecast to impact the southern Lao provinces of Khammouane and Savannakhet between 20-21 September.
- Heavy rainfall and strong winds are anticipated in the affected provinces
- Light to moderate rain is expected across other parts of Lao PDR
- Flooding and disruptions are possible due to the heavy precipitation
Thailand
- According to Thailand Meteorological Department (TMD), TC 16W, in addition to the fairly strong southwest monsoon trough across the lower North, Central, and Northeast regions will bring more rain to Thailand.
- From 19-23 September, there will be heavy to very heavy rain with strong winds in the North, Northeast, Central, including Bangkok and its vicinity, the East, and the South.
- In addition, from 19-22 September, the strong southwest monsoon will cover the Andaman Sea, the South, and the Gulf of Thailand. This will cause heavy to very heavy rain in some areas of the South.
- TMD cautions people in the forecasted areas to beware of the dangers of heavy to very heavy rain and accumulated rain, which may cause flash floods and forest runoff, especially in areas on hillsides, near waterways, and lowland.
Viet Nam
- According to NCHMF, in the morning of 19 September, the western sea area of ??the North East Sea (including the Hoang Sa archipelago) has strong winds of level 6-7 (39-61km/h), gusts of level 9 (75-88km/h), waves 2.0-4.0m high, rough seas.
- Coastal provinces from Ha Tinh to Da Nang need to be on guard against storm surges of 0.3-0.5m high, combined with high tides and big waves causing landslides of sea dykes and embankments, and flooding in low-lying areas in the evening of 19 September.
- Vessels operating in the above-mentioned dangerous areas are susceptible to the effects of storms, whirlwinds, strong winds, large waves, high tides and storm surges.
- From the morning of 19 September, the coastal mainland from Ha Tinh to Quang Nam will have winds gradually increasing to level 6-7, the area near the storm’s eye will have winds of level 8 (62-74km/h), gusting to level 10 (89-102km/h) ; deep inland, there will be gusts of level 6-7.
- Strong thunderstorms ahead of the storm are expected to occur which may have impacts such as trees falling, and roofs, and billboards being blown into the air.
- From 19 September to 20 September, in the North Central and Central regions, there will be heavy to very heavy rain with average rainfall from 100-300mm, locally over 500mm. NCHMF warns of heavy rain (>150mm/6 hours) in the area from Quang Tri to Da Nang on 19 September.
- On September 19, the Central Highlands and the South will have moderate rain, heavy rain and thunderstorms, locally very heavy rain with average rainfall from 20-40mm, some places over 70mm.
- Heavy rain leads to flooding in urban areas with high population density because water cannot drain quickly.
IMPACTS & DAMAGES:
Philippines
Based on NDRRMC Situation Report issued on 18 September 2024 at 0700H UTC+7, the following impacts of the combined effects of the trough of TC BEBINCA (update from Flash Update No. 1 for TC BEBINCA), TC GENER (now TC 16W), and the Enhanced Southwest Monsoon have been recorded:
- 597.87K affected population (133.70K families) in 12 regions, 37 provinces, 228 cities/municipalities
- 20 deaths, 11 injuries, 14 missing persons,
- 97.26K persons (25.88K families) displaced, of which 16.93K families (63K persons) are inside 618 evacuation centres
- 930 damaged houses (of which 141 are totally damaged)
- 92 road sections and 11 bridge sections were affected (46% are still passable to all vehicles)
- An estimated 75.57 USD worth of damages (houses, infrastructure, and other assets)
- 28 related incidents (rain-induced landslides, tornado, others)
- 48 seaports affected (19% operational); 2 airports affected (100% operational);
- 592 cities/municipalities with class suspension and 82 cities/municipalities with work suspension
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
Cambodia
- On 18 September, His Excellency Hun Manet, Prime Minister of the Kingdom of Cambodia gave a message about the preparation of the rescue of the people in case of flood.
- MOWRAM issued a notification on the flood situation in the Mekong river and advisory for authorities and people along the river to increase vigilance and closely monitor the water levels along the river.
- Relevant ministries, institutions, and local authorities, and communities along the Mekong River should be informed and must increase their vigilance to avoid potential effects of these conditions.
- The MOWRAM is continuously closely monitoring the developments of the weather and floods.
Lao PDR
- The DMH Lao PDR issued official notice on Tropical Depression (16W) and weather conditions and urged local authorities and communities to prepare for potential emergencies and follow any advisories issued.
- DMH Lao PDR advised the public, particularly the residents in the Southern Provinces to take precautionary measures, follow instructions from local authorities, and be prepared for the incoming tropical depression.
- DMH and NDMO Lao PDR are closely monitoring the development of weather and issue regular updates and advisories.
Philippines
- In the Philippines, the NDRRMCOC maintains BLUE Alert Status ICOW with the Enhanced Southwest Monsoon, TC GENER (TC 16W), and TC PULASAN.
- NDRRMC and relevant authorities have immediately responded and provided assistance to affected communities.
- Local authorities facilitated pre-emptive evacuation of vulnerable sectors in areas at risk.
- The NDRRMC disseminated Emergency Alert and Warning Messages to affected provinces.
- Continuous coordination with OCDROs and NDRRMC Member-Agencies.-Conducted Weather Updates on 11, 12, and 13 September 2024 regarding the weather situation.
- Activated Virtual EOC since 02 September 2024
- PAGASA conducted regular press briefings about the tropical disturbances and the Southwest Monsoon.
- PAGASA continues to monitor and release regular updates and advisories.
- Localised rainfall and flood warning are regularly issued in affected areas/areas at risk.
- Authorities are closely monitoring and coordinating with the relevant agencies for proactive measures related to the weather disturbances.
Thailand
- The TMD in Thailand issues early warning information and regular updates and advisories on TC 16W.
- TMD cautions people in the aforementioned areas should be careful of the dangers of heavy to very heavy rain and accumulated rain, which may cause flash floods and forest runoff, especially in areas on hillsides, near waterways and lowlands.
- DDPM closely monitors the development of the weather systems and regularly releases reports, advisories, and implements proactive measures against hazards related to the weather disturbances.
Viet Nam
- The Prime Minister issued Official Dispatch No. 98/CD-TTg dated 18 September 2024 and Official Dispatch No. 97/CD-TTg dated 17 September 2024 on responding to tropical depressions that are likely to strengthen into storms
- On 18 September 2024, Deputy Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development Nguyen Hoang Hiep chaired a meeting with ministries, branches and provinces and cities from Ninh Binh to Binh Dinh on responding to the tropical depression that is likely to strengthen into a storm.
- The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development issued telegram No. 6851/CD-BNN-DD dated 16 September 2024 to coastal provinces and cities from Quang Ninh to Binh Thuan on responding to tropical depression near the East Sea.
- The Ministries of National Defense, Public Security, Industry and Trade, and Transport have issued telegrams directing their subordinate units to proactively respond to the storm.
- The NCHMF provides early forecast bulletins for tropical depression to serve response direction.
- News agencies and newspapers regularly report on natural disaster developments and direction and response work.
- Localities have issued directives; organized on-duty shifts, monitored forecast and warning information and deployed responses to storms and natural disasters.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Cambodia: NCDM, MOWRAM;
Lao PDR: NDMO Lao PDR, DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
Verified news media agencies
