OVERVIEW: Tropical Cyclone FENGSHEN made four landfalls over the landmass of Luzon, Philippines from 18 to 19 October 2025, as reported by NDRRMC and PAGASA. According to NCHMF, as of 1300H UTC+7 today, the centre of Tropical Cyclone FENGSHEN was located about 450 km east-northeast of Da Nang.
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT: According to NCHMF, at 1400H UTC+7, the strongest winds near the centre are level 9-10 (75-102 km/h) gusting to level 12, and central pressure of 992 hPa, moving westward at 20 km/h.
FORECAST: According to NCHMF Storm News at 1400H UTC+7:
- In 24 hours (1300H on 22 October), FENGSHEN will be located about 145 km east northeast of Da Nang, moving west-southwest at 10-15 km/h, with winds at level 9 and gusts up to level 11.
- In 48 hours (1300H on 23 October), FENGSHEN will continue to move west southwest direction at 10-15 km/h, moving inland through the area from Quang Tri to Da Nang, gradually weakening into a tropical depression. It will further weaken into a low pressure area over Southern Lao PDR.
HAZARDS:
- Heavy Rainfall: According to NCHMF, from 22 to 27 October 2025, there will be widespread and persistent heavy rains that may last for days, with some areas having very heavy rain, in the area from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai. There is a very high risk of flash floods and landslides in mountainous areas; flooding in low-lying and urban areas.
- Strong Winds: From the afternoon of October 22, coastal provinces from Quang Tri to Da Nang will have winds gradually increasing to level 6, sometimes level 7, gusting to level 8-9.
ANTICIPATED RISKS:
- According to NCHMF, Heavy rain in the Central region is likely to last until the end of October 2025.
- According to PAGASA, La Nina conditions are present in the Tropical Pacific. Higher chances of above normal rainfall in October 2025 to February 2026 are expected, most especially along the eastern section of the country. This can be due to increased chance of tropical cyclone activity and combinations of rain-bearing weather systems, which may cause floods, flashfloods and rain-induced landslides in susceptible areas.
- Under the influence of Tropical Cyclone FENGHSENG, heavy rainfall may also be experienced in parts of Cambodia, Central and Southern Lao PDR, and Northeastern Thailand.
- An area of convection, INVEST 97W, is being monitored about 435 km north northeast of Itbayat, Batanes, Philippines. Initial forecast tracks indicate potential southwestward movement over the coming days. Currently, the potential for this system to develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours is medium (PAGASA).
IMPACTS:
- PHILIPPINES – According to the NDRRMC Situation Report for the effects of Tropical Cyclone FENGSHENG (“Ramil”) as of 21 October 2025, the following impacts have been recorded:
- 7 deaths, 1 injury, 2 missing individuals
- 25,029 displaced population, of which 13,403 people were served in 261 evacuation centres
- 27 road sections, 28 bridge sections affected (11% passable to all vehicles)
- 66 seaports affected (20% operational)
- 48 flooded areas
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- PHILIPPINES
- NDRRMOC maintains RED alert as response operations continue for the M6.8 Earthquake in Cebu, the M7.4 and M6.8 Earthquakes in Davao Oriental, and the effects of Tropical Cyclone FENGSHEN.
- NDRRMC-OCD through the OCD Regional Offices leads the whole of government response efforts in affected provinces. Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment are underway.
- PAGASA conducts regular press briefings and issues regular warnings and advisories. NDRRMC and PAGASA continue to monitor and release advisories and early warning information developing weather disturbances.
- VIET NAM
- The VDDMA coordinates proactive preparedness measures for the incoming Tropical Cyclone while also coordinating response efforts in the localities affected by Tropical Cyclone MATMO. On 20 October 2025, the Prime Minister, the National Steering Committee for Civil Defense, and the General Staff of the Ministry of National Defense issued official dispatches directing relevant agencies and local forces to proactively implement measures in preparation for the potential effects of Tropical Cyclone FENGSHEN (Storm No. 12 locally).
- The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment ensures dam safety for provinces facing the storm and managed the discharge of the Hoa Binh Hydropower Reservoir to protect downstream areas.
- Authorities organized a continuous 24/7 watch and disseminated the delivery of 6.8 million text message warnings to at-risk citizens across the provinces from Ha Tinh to Quang Ngai and Gia Lai. VDDMA and NCHMF continue to monitor and issue regular updates.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA, DSWD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
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