OVERVIEW:Tropical Cyclone KALMAEGI (locally named “Tino” in the Philippines and “Storm No. 13” in Viet Nam) made landfall over five areas in central Philippines (Southern Leyte, Cebu, Negros Occidental, Guimaras, and Iloilo City) with typhoon category strength. As of 0900H today, the centre of KALMAEGI was located about 190km west of Coron, Palawan, now heading towards Viet Nam (PAGASA). According to NCHMF forecast as of 1100H UTC+7, KALMAEGI may make landfall over the area of Quang Ngai to Dak Lak in the evening of 6 November 2025. Meanwhile, another tropical cyclone, currently designated as TC 32W (which will be named FUNG-WONG), is being monitored by PAGASA approximately 1,835 km east of Northeastern Mindanao, the Philippines as of 0900H UTC+7, outside the Philippines Area of Responsibility (PAR).
MOVEMENT AND STRENGTH:
- Tropical Cyclone KALMAEGI: According to PAGASA, KALMAEGI is currently moving West Northwestward at 20 km/h. Maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 180 km/h, central pressure of 970 hPa, and strong to typhoon-force winds extend outwards up to 300 km from the centre.
- Tropical Cyclone 32W: According to PAGASA, 32W is currently moving eastwards at 10 km/h. Maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h near the center, gustiness of up to 70 km/h, central pressure of 1,002 hPa, and strong winds extend outwards up to 450 km from the centre.
FORECAST: As of 12 pm at 5 Nov 2025 (PAGASA, NCHMF):
- Tropical Cyclone KALMAEGI will continue moving west northwestward over the West Philippine Sea until it exits the PAR tonight or 6 November early morning. Within the next 24 hours (by 1000H on 6 Nov), KALMAEGI is forecasted to be located approximately 340 km east-southwest of Quy Nhon (Gia Lai), Viet Nam, moving northwest at around 25 km/h, with strong winds up to level 14 (150-166 km/h). KALMAEGI is anticipated to maintain its west-northwestward track, moving over the sea areas between Quang Ngai and Dak Lak in the evening of 6 November, with strong winds up to level 13 (134-139 km/h).
- Tropical Cyclone 32W is forecast to move erratically in the next 12 or 24 hours. Afterwards, it will begin moving northwestward on 6 Nov then turn west northwestward. 32W is forecast to enter the PAR on 7 Nov late evening or 8 Nov morning. There is an increasing chance of landfall for 32W on 10 Nov over Northern or Central Luzon, the Philippines. 32W is forecast to rapidly intensify and may reach typhoon category on 7 Nov and super typhoon category on 8 Nov. It may also make landfall at or near its peak lifetime intensity.
HAZARDS:
- Philippines
According to PAGASA, KALMAEGI is forecast to bring 100–200 mm of rainfall over Palawan, potentially causing widespread flooding in urban, low-lying, and riverine areas, as well as landslides in susceptible zones. Rainfall of 50–100 mm is also expected over Occidental Mindoro, Antique, and Aurora, which may lead to localised flooding and possible landslides.
At most Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal (TCWS) No. 4 is in effect over the northernmost part of Palawan (El Nido), while TCWS No. 3 is raised over San Vicente, Taytay, and the Calamian Islands (see full list). Additionally, the northeast monsoon surge, shear line, and trough of KALMAEGI are expected to bring strong to gale-force gusts across several parts of the Philippines.
- Viet Nam
According to NCHMF, Coastal areas from Hue City to Dak Lak may experience a storm surge of 0.3–0.6 metres. From 6–7 Nov, areas from Da Nang to Dak Lak will experience very heavy rainfall of 200–400 mm, with some locations exceeding 600 mm. Regions from southern Quang Tri to Hue, Khanh Hoa, and Lam Dong are forecast to receive heavy rainfall of 150–300 mm, with some areas exceeding 450 mm. Rainfall is expected to gradually decrease from 8 Nov. From 7–8 Nov, regions from northern Quang Tri to Thanh Hoa will have moderate to heavy rain, totaling 50–150 mm, with localised areas exceeding 200 mm. There is also a warning of intense rainfall exceeding 200 mm within 3 hours in some areas.
From the evening of 6 Nov, coastal areas from southern Quang Tri to Da Nang, and the eastern parts of Quang Ngai to Dak Lak, will experience winds strengthening to levels 6–7 (39-61 km/h), later increasing to levels 8–9 (62-74 km/h), and levels 10–12 (89-117 km/h) near the storm centre (particularly over eastern Quang Ngai–Dak Lak), with gusts up to levels 14–15. From the night of 6 Nov, the western parts of Quang Ngai to Dak Lak will have winds increasing to levels 6–7 (39-61 km/h), and up to level 8 (62-74 km/h) near the storm centre, with gusts up to level 10.
Due to the wide circulation of KALMAEGI, there is a high risk of thunderstorms, tornadoes, and strong gusts of wind both before and during landfall.
REPORTED IMPACTS:
- Philippines:
According to the NDRRMC, as of 5 Nov at 1100H (UTC+7), Tropical Cyclone KALMAEGI have affected approximately 318,020 families (1,107,819 persons). Of these, around 125,219 families (428,127 persons) are currently being accommodated in 4,805 evacuation centres, while 46,616 families (149,801 persons) are receiving assistance outside evacuation centres across Regions 5, 6, MIMAROPA, NIR, 7, 8, and CARAGA, with a total of 50 persons dead (for validation), 10 persons injured (for validation), and 13 persons missing (for validation).
Initial reports indicate impacts to 27 road sections (15 remains impassable) and 5 bridges (3 remains impassable), along with 111 damaged houses—of which 10 are totally damaged and 101 are partially damaged. A total of 73 cities/municipalities experiences power outages (with 29% restored), 1 reported water supply interruptions (0% restored), and 8 reported communication line disruptions (0% restored).
ANTICIPATED RISKS:
- Extended forecast suggests re-intensification over the East Sea and another potential landfall over Central Viet Nam where widespread flooding and numerous landslides are still being monitored. As of 5 Nov 2025, VDDMA reported 47 deaths, 8 missing, and 130 injured due to these disasters. In addition, 108 houses collapsed, 694 houses were damaged, and 44,258 houses remained inundated.
- 5-day rainfall forecast indicate significant rainfall may also affect Cambodia and southern Lao PDR.
- According to ASMC, La Nina conditions are predicted to become established and may last until at least end of 2025, with some models indicating until March 2026. Effects include strong monsoon activity and above-normal rainfall. (PAGASA)
- According to PAGASA, 2 or 3 tropical cyclones may form in November and 1 or 2 tropical cyclones in December 2025.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- Philippines: NDRRMOC maintains RED alert in response to the effects of TC KALMAEGI. Authorities have pre-emptively evacuated about 260K individuals from high risk areas. Inter-Agency Coordinating Cells have been activated to ensure faster coordination, timely information sharing, and immediate support to operations as the situation has continued to develop. Data collection and damage assessments are underway. PAGASA continues close monitoring of the weather disturbances, conducts regular briefings, and regularly releases early warnings and advisories
- Viet Nam: VDDMA is working closely with all relevant ministries on proactive measures to mitigate potential effects of Tropical Cyclone KALMAEGI while also responding to the widespread flooding and landslides in Central Viet Nam. VDDMA is ensuring the safety of dams and reservoirs and prepare response measures to minimize damage from the incoming TC. NCHMF and VDDMA are closely monitoring and releasing regular updates and advisories on the developing weather disturbances.
The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor the situation in coordination with the NDRRMC, VDDMA, and other potentially affected ASEAN Member States, and remains ready to provide assistance should the need arise.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
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