OVERVIEW:Tropical Cyclone MATMO continues to move west northwestward towards Southern China. According to NCHMF, as of 1300H of 5 October 2025, the centre of MATMO was located about 20.8 N, 110.6 E, in the sea east of Leizhou Peninsula in China, about 290km East Southeast of Mong Cai, Quang Ninh in Viet Nam.
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT: According to NCHMF, the strongest wind near the centre of Tropical Cyclone MATMO is level 12-13 (118-149km/h), gusting to level 16. Moving west northwest at about 20-25km/h.
FORECAST: According to NCHMF Storm News at 1100H UTC+7 today:
- At 0100H, 6 October: MATMO will continue moving west northwestward at about 20-25 km/h with winds at level 10 and gusts up to level 13 on the coastal areas of Quang Ninh province, Viet Nam and Guangxi, China.
- At 1300H, 6 October, MATMO will maintain its west northwestward movement at 20 km/h with winds reduced to level 6-7 and gusts to level 6, in the mountainous area of Northern Viet Nam.
- At 0100H, 7 October, MATMO will maintain its direction and speed while weakening into a low pressure area over the mountainous areas of northwest Viet Nam.
HAZARDS:
NCHMF forecasts the following hazards associated with Tropical Cyclone MATMO:
- Rough seas: In the northwest area of North East Sea, waves of up to 6.0-8.0m will be extremely destructive and may sink large ships. The sea north of Bac Bo Gulf (including Bach Long Vy, Van Don, Co To, Cat Hai and Hon Dau Island) will have waves up to 4.0-5.0m high which will be very dangerous for ships..
- Strong winds: In the coastal areas from Quang Ninh to Hung Yen and Lang Son provinces, winds will range from level 6-10, with gusts up to level 11-12. Winds can break tree branches, blow off roofs, and damage houses. Other areas that may experience strong winds are the inland areas of the Northeast (up to level 5), communes/wards in the Northeast of Quang Ninh (up to level 10, gusts up to level 13); the remaining communes/wards of Quang Ninh and coastal areas of Hai Phong City (up to level 9, gusts up to level 11); coastal communes/wards of Hung Yen province and northern border communes of Lang Son province (up to level 8, gusts up to level 10; northeastern Bac Ninh province (formerly Bac Giang province) (up to level 7, gusts up to level 9).
- Storm surge: Coastal areas and islands in Quang Ninh-Hai Phong provinces will have storm surges of 0.4-0.6m. There are risks of flooding in low-lying coastal areas and river mouths due to rising water and large waves from the afternoon and evening of 5 October.
- Heavy rainfall: From tonight to the night of 7 October, the mountainous and midland areas of the North will have heavy rain, with common rainfall from 150-250mm, locally with very heavy rain over 400mm. Warning of the risk of heavy rain (>150mm/3 hours); The Northern Delta and Thanh Hoa areas will have moderate to heavy rain with common rainfall of 70-150mm, locally with very heavy rain over 200mm. Hanoi area is less likely to be affected by TC MATMO. However, NCHMF forecasts thunderstorms, whirlwinds and strong gusts, as well as moderate to heavy rains from early morning of 6 October to the end of 7 October (common rainfall of 70-120mm, locally over 150mm).
- Thunderstorms and tornadoes: Due to the influence of the wide TC circulation, thunderstorms, tornadoes and strong gusts of wind both before and during the storm’s landfall are possible
ANTICIPATED RISK:
- La Niña Alert: According to PAGASA, most climate models combined with expert judgements suggest 70% chance of La Niña forming in October-December (OND) 2025 season and is likely to persist until December 2025 – February 2026 (DJF 2025-26) season. With this development, the PAGASA ENSO Alert and Warning System is now raised to La Niña Alert.
- Tropical Cyclone HALONG: PAGASA is currently monitoring Tropical Cyclone HALONG in the Western Pacific Ocean. As of 0700H today, the centre of HALONG was estimated about 2,175km east northeast of Extreme Northern Luzon. Maximum sustained winds at 65km/h and gusts up to 80km/h, moving west southwestward slowly
IMPACTS: As of 5 October 2025 0500H UTC+7, the NDRRMC reported the following impacts of Tropical Cyclone MATMO in the Philippines:
- 20.5K displaced population
- 225K affected population (70.6K families)
- 98 flooded areas
- 98 road sections, 34 bridges affected
- 13 damaged houses
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- PHILIPPINES – NDRRMOC maintains RED alert as response operations continue in regions affected by TCs MITAG, RAGASA, BUALOI, and the Southwest Monsoon while also coordinating response to the impacts of M6.9 Earthquake in Cebu and TC MATMO (local name “Paolo”). Prior to its impacts, the authorities have pre-emptively evacuated about 6.5K have people from high risk areas. PAGASA continues to closely monitor and issue regular updates. PAGASA is also on La Nina Alert as it continues to closely monitor ENSO conditions.
- VIET NAM – VDDMA continues to respond to the impacts of Tropical Cyclone BUALOI while also coordinating preparedness measures for Tropical Cyclone MATMO. Localities continue to review, update, summarize the damage and organise efforts to overcome the effects of tropical cyclones while also implementing the directives and proactive measures against the potential effects of the incoming tropical disturbance. NCHMF continues to closely monitor the weather disturbances and releases regular updates and advisories.
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS);
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
Verified news media agencies
