OVERVIEW:At 1300H UTC+7 on 24 September, RAGASA was located at approximately 21.5°N; 112.6°E, about 510 km east of Mong Cai (Quang Ninh). The maximum sustained winds near the centre reached NCHMF level 14 (150–166 km/h), with gusts above level 17, or equivalent to Typhoon level or Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson scale. RAGASA is moving in a west-northwesterly direction at a speed of around 20 km/h (NCHMF).
FORECAST:
- By 1300H UTC+7 on 25 September, RAGASA is expected to move west at around 20 km/h, and gradually weakening. Its centre will be at 21.6°N – 107.8°E, over the mainland east of Quang Ninh. Maximum sustained winds are forecast at Level 8-9, with gusts up to Level 11.
- By 1300H UTC+7 on 26 September, RAGASA will move west at around 20 km/h, weakening into a tropical depression and then into a low-pressure area. Its centre will be at 21.4°N–103.3°E, over the land area of north-western Northern Viet Nam.
HAZARDS:
- LAO PDR: According DMH Lao PDR, Ragasa will bring heavy to very heavy rainfall over northern, central, and southern parts of the Lao PDR between 24 and 27 September 2025, including Phongsaly, Houaphanh, Luang Namtha, Oudomxay, Xayabouly, Luang Prabang, Vientiane Province, Vientiane Capital, Borikhamxay, Khammouane, Savannakhet, Salavan, Champasak, Sekong, and Attapeu.
- PHILIPPINES: According PAGASA, while RAGASA is currently outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR), another tropical cyclone, BUALOI (locally referred to as Opong), together with Southwest Monsoon, will continue to affect conditions in the Philippines. Regions including Sorsogon, Northern Samar, and Marinduque are expected to face potential impacts such as widespread severe flooding and landslides. In addition, other areas across Regions III, V, VIII, NCR, CALABARZON, and MIMAROPA may also experience flooding and landslides, particularly in locations that are moderately to highly susceptible to these hazards.
- THAILAND: According to TMD, under the influence of RAGASA, the monsoon trough crossing the northern and upper north-eastern regions of Thailand, together with the strengthening southwest monsoon over the Andaman Sea, Thailand, and the Gulf of Thailand, will become more active during 24–26 September 2025. This will result in increased rainfall, with heavy to very heavy rain in many areas of the northern, north-eastern, central, and eastern regions, as well as in Bangkok and its vicinity. Heavy to very heavy rainfall and accumulated rain, which may cause flash floods, runoff, and river overflows, particularly in foothill areas, near waterways, lowlands, and flood-prone zones.
- VIET NAM: According to the NCHMF, on 25 September coastal areas from Quang Ninh to Hung Yen are expected to experience strengthening winds of Level 6–7, increasing to Level 8–9 near the centre, with gusts reaching up to Level 11. Further inland across the north-eastern region, winds are forecast at Level 5, locally up to Level 6, with gusts of Level 7–8. Heavy to very heavy rainfall is anticipated from the night of 24 September until 26 September across the Northern Region, Thanh Hóa, and Nghe An, generally ranging from 100–250 mm, with some areas likely to exceed 400 mm. This poses a high risk of flooding in low-lying areas, flash floods in small rivers and streams, and landslides in mountainous terrain. In addition, due to the extensive circulation of RAGASA, thunderstorms, tornadoes, and strong gusty winds are expected to occur both before and during landfall.
REPORTED IMPACTS:
PHILIPPINES:
- According to the NDRRMC, as of 24 September at 0500H (UTC+7), the combined effects of the southwest monsoon, Tropical Cyclones MITAG (locally named “Mirasol”) and, RAGASA (locally named “Nando”) have affected approximately 156,197 families (692,707 persons). Of these, around 8,344 families (24,958 persons) are currently being accommodated in 615 evacuation centres, while 4,723 families (14,663 persons) are receiving assistance outside evacuation centres across Regions 1, 2, CAR, 3, NCR, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, 5, 6, 9, and BARMM, with a total of 4 persons dead (for validation), 11 persons injured (for validation), and 1 persons missing (for validation).
- Initial reports indicate impacts to 166 road sections (49 remains impassable) and 34 bridges (8 remains impassable), along with 128 damaged houses—of which 17 are totally damaged and 111 are partially damaged. A total of 82 cities/municipalities experiences power outages (with 45% restored), 5 reported water supply interruptions (40% restored), and 4 reported communication line disruptions (25% restored).
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- LAO PDR: DMH Lao PDR is closely monitoring RAGASA and regularly releases warning and advisories. NDMO Lao PDR is also closely monitoring the situations and coordinates with relevant agencies for the potential impacts of RAGASA in Lao PDR.
- PHILIPPINES: As of reporting, NDRRMOC is on RED Alert (Day 8) due to the impacts of the southwest monsoon, Tropical Cyclones MITAG and RAGASA. The NDRRMC continues to monitor the situation in close coordination with its member agencies and regional offices, and has activated the National Inter-Agency Coordination Cell together with selected National Response Clusters to support ongoing response operations.
- THAILAND: TMD and DDPM are closely monitoring RAGASA development and regularly releases updates. In parallel, DDPM is coordinating ongoing response efforts to address the flooding situation in Thailand. As of reporting, DDPM has reported flooding in 16 provinces, affecting 63 districts and 392 sub-districts.
- VIET NAM: On 23 Sep, the Prime Minister issued Official Telegram No. 171/CD-TTg directing Ha Tinh northwards to urgently prepare for RAGASA, building on an earlier directive (No. 170/CD-TTg, 22 September) covering Quang Ngai northwards, emphasising the highest level of readiness and proactive measures. On 23 Sep, Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha chaired an online coordination meeting with provinces from Quang Ninh to Ha Tinh and relevant ministries. The National Civil Defence Steering Committee and the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment issued instructions on preparedness and dyke safety. Key ministries, including Defence, Public Security, Health, Science and Technology, Construction, Industry and Trade, and Education and Training, also issued directives. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs requested support from regional embassies to facilitate safe shelter and assistance for Vietnamese vessels. Meanwhile, NCHMF has provided regular storm updates since 19 September, and VDDMA has maintained 24/7 monitoring. In partnership with Zalo Viet Nam, 16.8 million advisory messages and preparedness guidelines have been disseminated nationwide.
The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor the situation, in coordination with the affected and potentially affected ASEAN Member States, and stands ready to provide support should the need arise.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Lao PDR: NDMO, DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
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