FLASH UPDATE #3 – Tropical Cyclone YAGI & Southwest Monsoon
Countries under monitoring: Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam
OVERVIEW: According to the NCHMF, at 2200 HRS UTC+7, the centre of Tropical Cyclone YAGI was located at about 20.1 N and 109.7 E, about 300km from Quang Ninh. It has slightly weakened after making landfall over Hainan, China the afternoon of 6 September. It is forecast to make another landfall over the shores of Quang Ninh in Viet Nam in the afternoon of 7 September.
FORECAST: As of 2200 HRS UTC+7, TC YAGI will continue to move west-northwestward direction at 15-20 km/h. TC YAGI is forecasted to make initial landfall over provinces of the northern region of Viet Nam in the afternoon of 7 September, and is expected to continue to move west-northwestward over the Lao PDR – Viet Nam border and start to weaken on the evening of 8 September (NCHMF). According to the Mekong River Commission (MRC), heavy rainfall is forecast for several provinces in Mainland Southeast Asia and TC YAGI is expected to affect the Lower Mekong Basin from 8 September.
INTENSITY & STRENGTH: Level 14 (150 -166 km/h), gust level 17 (NCHMF).
MOVEMENT: Moving west-northwest at about 15-20 km/h.
HAZARDS:
CAMBODIA
- According to MOWRAM, TC YAGI will affect southwest monsoon condition over Cambodia. This situation may result in heavy rainfall with thunderstorms, lighting, and wind gust over several provinces in Lowlands (Banteay Meanchey, Battambang, Pursat, Siem Reap, Kampong Chhnang, Kampong Thom, Kampong Cham, Tbong Khmum, Prey Veng, Svay Rieng, Kandal, Takeo, and Phnom Penh), Highlands (Kampong Speau, Pailin, Oddar Meanchey, Preah Vihear, Stung Treng, Kratie, Ratanakkiri, Mondukiri, Cardamom Mountains), and Coastal (Kohh Kong, Sihanoukville, Kampot, Kep, and Bokor) Areas in Cambodia.
LAO PDR
- Heavy Rain in the next 24 hours in Vientiane, Khammuane, Saravane, Savannakhet, Attapeu, Sekong, and Champasak (MRC)
- The Northern Part of Lao PDR is anticipateed to experience heavy rain from 7 to 9 Sep due to the impact of TC YAGI (MRC).
- According to the ASEAN DMRS, at most 7.6-15.2 cm of Tropical Cyclone-associated rainfall is possible over Northern Lao PDR.
MYANMAR
- Estimated rainfall impacts of TC YAGI may extend to Myanmar over the state/regions bordering Lao PDR and Thailand (ASEAN DMRS)
PHILIPPINES
- According to PAGASA, the Southwest Monsoon continues to affect several areas over Pangasinan, Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, CAR, MIMAROPA, Cavite, Batangas, Batanes, the rest of Ilocos Region, Central Luzon, Bicol Region, Cagayan Valley, and CALABARZON. Flood warning currently raised in the western sections of Luzon. Possible flashfloods and landslides during moderate to severe rainshowers and thunderstorms.
THAILAND
- From 7-8 September, some areas in the North and the upper Northeast, and the East are forecast to have heavy rain and strong winds due to the effects of TC YAGI. (TMD)
- In Northeast, Central regions including Bangkok and its vicinity, the East and the South, heavy rainfall and accumulated rain may cause flash floods and forest runoff, especially on hillsides near waterways and lowlands (TMD).
VIET NAM
- According to NCHMF, from midnight of 6 Sept, the coastal areas from Quang Ninh to Thanh Hoa and several areas over Northeast Regions may experience strong winds.
- Storm surges are also expecting over the areas from Thank Hoa to Quang Ninh (NCHMF).
- From September midnight of 6 to 9 September, heavy rainfall is also affecting Northern Region and Than Hoa with a total of rainfall around 100-350 mm, in some places may over 500 mm. The heaviest rainfall over Northeast Regions will be concentrated on 7 September, and Northwest Region from 7-8 September.
- Due to the influence of the wide circulation of TC YAGI, thunderstorms and tornadoes may be occurs over several areas from Thanh Hoa to Thua Thien Hue (NCHMF).
- According to the ASEAN DMRS, at most widespread damage (TAOS) over Northern Region of Viet Nam; and at most 22.9-30.5 cm of Tropical Cyclone-associated rainfall is possible over Northern of Viet Nam.
IMPACTS AND DAMAGES:
PHILIPPINES
Based on NDRRMC Situation Report issued on 6 September 2024 at 1900H UTC+7, the effects of TC YAGI and the Southwest Monsoon had caused the following impacts and damages:
- 2.14M affected population (557.98K families) in 10 regions, 37 provinces, 275 cities/municipalities
- 20 deaths, 18 injuries, 28 missing persons,
- 11.1K families (41.9K persons) displaced, of which 8.35K families (31.26K persons) inside 404 evacuation centres,
- 7K damaged houses (of which 458 are totally damaged)
- 159 road sections and 32 bridge sections were affected (75% are still passable to all vehicles)
- An estimated 23.1M USD worth of damages (houses, agriculture, infrastructure, and other assets)
- 39 cities/municipalities under state of calamity
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
Cambodia
- MOWRAM of Cambodia are closely monitoring the development of weather and issue regular weather updates.
- Early warning information and advisories are proactively provided to the public and communities at risk of the potential effects of the monsoon rains and TC YAGI.
- Preah Vihear Provincial Department of Water Resources and Meteorology also closely monitor the reservoir dam status due to the possibility of heavy rainfall increasing water level in this area
- NCDM Cambodia closely monitor the development of TC YAGI and proactively coordinates with relevant agencies to prepare for potential effects of TC YAGI.
Lao PDR
- DMH of Lao PDR are closely monitoring the development of weather and issue regular weather updates.
- Early warning information and advisories are proactively provided to the public and communities at risk of the potential effects of the monsoon rains and TC YAGI.
- NDMO Lao PDR closely monitor the development of TC YAGI and proactively coordinates with relevant agencies to prepare for potential effects of TC YAGI.
Philippines
- In the Philippines, the NDRRMCOC maintains RED Alert Status ICOW with TC YAGI and the Southwest Monsoon.
- NDRRMC issued memoranda for 1) EPR Protocols, and 2) activation and standby status of National Response Clusters ICOW TC YAGI and Southwest Monsoon.
- Emergency alert and warning messages were disseminated to affected provinces.
- Regular coordination meetings are conducted by NDRRMC, regional and local authorities, PAGASA and related agencies
- Continuous monitoring and dissemination of warnings and advisories are being conducted.
- 171,383 FNFIs provided (170,591 of which are FFPs, 792 pcs hygiene kits, laminated sacks, kitchen kits, rice, and sleeping kits among others) were provided to affected families in Regions NCR, II, III, CALABARZON, V, VI, VII, and VIII.
- A total of 712 Search, Rescue, and Retrieval (SRR) personnel deployed to regions I, II, III, CALABRZON, MIMAROPA, V, VI, BARMM, CAR, and NCR.
- 25 logistics assets deployed from OCD, AFP, DSWD, WFP, BFP, and DPWH.
- 113 personnel were deployed to monitor and disseminate public service announcements/updates from LGUs as well as messages from warninig and actions agencies using social media, website, and other messaging platforms
Thailand
- TMD are closely monitoring the development of weather and issue regular weather updates.
- Early warning information and advisories are proactively provided to the public and communities at risk of the potential effects of the monsoon rains and TC YAGI.
- DDPM Thailand closely monitor the development of TC YAGI and proactively coordinates with relevant agencies to prepare for potential effects of TC YAGI, as well as respond to ongoing flooding and landslides situations over 26 provinces. As of the report on 6 Sep at 1800 HRS UTC+77, flooding still persists in 5 provinces.
Viet Nam
- Quang Ninh province plans to complete the evacuation of people in aquaculture areas to safe places, and the bracing of houses, factories, equipment, and trees before 1600H UTC+7 on 6 September;
- Hai Phong City plans to evacuate people from apartment buildings, dilapidated houses, low-lying areas, and water transport vehicles to their anchorages, and to complete the evacuation of aquatic and seafood cages before 8:00 p.m. on September 6; direct schools to be evacuation sites for students to have a day off from 1200H on 6 September, and for the remaining schools to have a day off from 7 September 7;
- Thai Binh province plans to evacuate 2,871 coastal aquaculture workers in Thai Thuy and Tien Hai districts to safety before TC YAGI makes landfall;
- Nam Dinh province plans to evacuate 734 workers in aquaculture huts to safety before the TC YAGI makes landfall;
- Ninh Binh province has evacuated 374 workers/218 huts outside Binh Minh III dike to a safe place; has notified 2,311 people/1,401 households farming aquatic products within the scope of Binh Minh II – Binh Minh III dike to be ready to relocate and take shelter from the tropical cyclone.
- In Viet Nam, coastal provinces and cities from Quang Ninh to Phu Yen proactively respond to TC YAGI near the East Sea according to Official Dispatch No. 6475/CD-BNN-DD dated 2 September of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development. In addition, the Prime Minister issued Official Dispatch No. 86/CD-TTg dated 3 September directing urgent response TC YAGI and floods. (VDDMA).
- The Prime Minister issued Official Dispatch No. 86/CD-TTg dated 3 September and No. 87/CD-TTg dated 5 September, 2024 directing focused emergency response to TC YAGI and post-storm floods.
- On 6 September, 2024, a working delegation of Government leaders and the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development inspected and directed storm response: 1) The working delegation of Deputy Prime Minister Tran Hong Ha inspected and directed in Quang Ninh and Hai Phong, 2) The working delegation of Minister Le Minh Hoan inspected and directed in Nam Dinh and Thai Binh.
- Ministries and branches have sent telegrams directing their subordinate units to proactively respond to the storm; the Ministry of Foreign Affairs has sent diplomatic notes to countries and territories requesting to create conditions and support for fishermen to take shelter.
- The NCHMF provides early storm forecast bulletins to serve response direction.
- The Department of Dyke Management and Natural Disaster Prevention and Control has increased its 24/7 duty; provided advice and direction, and deployed storm response; the Departments of Irrigation and Crop Production have issued written instructions and inspected storm response work in localities.
- Coastal provinces and cities from Quang Ninh to Binh Dinh and the North proactively deploy storm response according to the Prime Minister’s Telegrams, of which 22 provinces and cities have issued deployment Telegrams.
- Localities organize on-duty shifts, monitor forecast and warning information and deploy storm response; send working groups directly to the scene to inspect and review response work; deploy measures to ensure dike safety and downstream safety when operating hydroelectric reservoirs.
- Direct the fisheries sector and local authorities to coordinate with border guards to organize information, count, and call on ships operating at sea to know the storm’s developments so they can proactively move to avoid it.
- Review response plans in case of strong storms making landfall, focusing on evacuating people, ensuring safety of dikes, dams, aquaculture and protecting production, including:
The AHA Centre will continue to monitor for further developments and issue necessary updates.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Cambodia: NCDM, MOWRAM;
Lao PDR: NDMO Lao PDR, DMH;
Myanmar: DDM;
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
Verified news media agencies;
