OVERVIEW: According to NCHMF, Tropical Cyclone RAGASA has weakened into a low pressure area this afternoon and continues to weaken over Quang Ninh area in Northern Viet Nam. Meanwhile, according to PAGASA, as of 25 September 2025 at 1900H (UTC+7), Tropical Cyclone BUALOI (“Ompong”) intensified into a Typhoon over the Philippine Sea as it approaches Eastern Visayas. As of 2100H UTC+7, the centre of Tropical Cyclone BUALOI was estimated based on all available data including those from Guiuan Doppler Weather Radar over the coastal waters of Dolores, Eastern Samar (11.9°N, 126.0°E).
STRENGTH, MOVEMENT, & EXTENT: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin # 13, BUALOI has maximum sustained winds of 120 km/h near the centre, gustiness of up to 165 km/h, and central pressure of 975 hPa, moving west northwestward at 25 km/h. Strong winds extend outwards up to 460 km from the centre.
FORECAST:
According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #13:
- TRACK: BUALOI is forecast to make landfall over Northern Samar or the northern portion of Eastern Samar between midnight and tomorrow (26 September) early morning before heading towards Bicol Region, where it is likely to make another landfall in the vicinity of Sorsogon or Masbate tomorrow morning. Throughout tomorrow, BUALOI will move generally west northwestward near or over Sibuyan Sea and traverse the mainland and/or island provinces of Bicol Region, southern CALABARZON, and northern MIMAROPA, before emerging over the West Philippine Sea on Saturday (27 September) early morning.
- INTENSITY: As BUALOI crosses the archipelago, it will likely remain as a typhoon or severe tropical storm during the passage. Re-intensification is highly likely once BUALOI emerges over the West Philippine Sea.
- PAGASA emphasizes that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Furthermore, the track may still shift more to the north or to the south but within the limit of the forecast confidence cone
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS):
- TCWS No. 4 (significant to severe threat to life and property): Sorsogon and the eastern portion of Masbate including Ticao Island, Northern Samar, the northern and central portions of Eastern Samar, and the northern and central portions of Samar
- TCWS No. 3 (moderate to significant threat to life and property): The rest of Masbate including Burias Island, Albay, the western portion of Camarines Sur, the southern portion of Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon and the central and southern portions of Oriental Mindoro, the rest of Eastern Samar, the rest of Samar, the extreme northern portion of Leyte and Biliran.
- TCWS No. 2 (minor to moderate threat to life and property): Catanduanes, the rest of Camarines Sur, Camarines Norte, the central and eastern portions of Quezon, Laguna, Rizal, Cavite, Batangas, the rest of Oriental Mindoro, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Islands, Calamian Islands , Metro Manila, and the southern portion of Bataan, the eastern portion of Southern Leyte, the northern and central portions of Leyte, the northern portion of Cebu including Camotes and Bantayan Islands, the extreme northern portion of Negros Occidental, the northern portion of Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, and the northwestern portion of Antique including Caluya Islands, Dinagat Islands, Siargao Islands, and Bucas Grande Islands.
- TCWS No. 1 (minimal to minor threat to life and property: The central and southern portions of Isabela, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, the southwestern portion of Mountain Province, La Union, Pangasinan, Aurora, Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, Zambales, the rest of Bataan, Pampanga, Bulacan, the rest of Quezon, Cuyo Islands, and the northern portion of mainland Palawan, the rest of Southern Leyte, the eastern and central portions of Bohol, the central portion of Cebu, the northern portion of Negros Oriental, the northern and central portions of Negros Occidental, the central portion of Iloilo, and the central portion of Antique, the rest of Surigao del Norte.
HAZARDS:
Heavy Rainfall (PAGASA Weather Advisory No. 26)
- Tonight to tomorrow evening (26 September): Intense to Torrential (>200 mm) in Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Sorsogon, Masbate, Oriental Mindoro, and Romblon; Heavy to Intense (100-200 mm) in Occidental Mindoro, Quezon, Batangas, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, Camarines Sur, Albay, Marinduque, Aklan, Capiz, Cebu, Bohol, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Dinagat Islands, Antique, Iloilo, Guimaras, and Negros Occidental; Moderate to Heavy (50-100 mm) in Aurora, Laguna, Cavite, Metro Manila, Bataan, Rizal, Camiguin, Surigao del Norte, Palawan, Negros Oriental, and Siquijor.
- Tomorrow evening to Saturday evening (September 27): Heavy to Intense (100-200 mm) in Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Batangas, Cavite, and Antique; Moderate to Heavy (50-100 mm) in Laguna, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan and Iloilo.
- A total of 4,647 barangays in 215 municipalities and 18 provinces are susceptible to rain-induced landslides and flooding based on the Rainfall Data GSM (100mm) and WRF (150mm) 72-hour forecast as of 0700H UTC+7, 25 September 2025 for the whole Philippines based on the list published by the DENR-MGB.
Coastal Inundation
- Based on PAGASA Storm Surge Warning No. 6, there is high risk of life-threatening storm surge with peak heights exceeding 3.0 m within 36 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal localities of Zambales, Bataan, Metro Manila, CALABARZON, Occidental Mindoro including Lubang Island, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Romblon, Palawan, Bicol Region, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Cebu, Aklan, Antique, Capiz, Dinagat Islands, and Siargao Island.
Severe Winds
- In addition to the wind impacts indicated under the Tropical Cyclone Wind Signals, local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction. Furthermore, the Southwest Monsoon enhanced by BUALOI, will bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas not under Wind Signal (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds): Today – Ilocos Region, Cagayan Valley, Palawan, Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Caraga Region, and Davao Region; 26 September – Ilocos Region, Cordillera Administrative Region, Cagayan Valley, Palawan, Visayas, Zamboanga del Norte, Misamis Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Camiguin, Caraga Region, and Davao Region; 27 September – Luzon and Western Visayas
Lahar
- DOST-PHIVOLCS has issued a Lahar Advisory as heavy rains are expected from Tropical Cyclone BUALOI, the Bicol Region is set to experience heavy to intense rainfall from tomorrow afternoon (September 25) through Friday afternoon (September 26) which may trigger volcanic sediment flows or lahars, muddy streamflows or muddy run-off in rivers and drainage areas around Mayon Volcano, posing risks to nearby communities.
ANTICIPATED RISKS:
- Forecast rainfall may be higher in mountainous and elevated areas, Moreover, impacts in some areas may be worsened by significant antecedent rainfall.
- Areas to be affected by BUALOI include provinces that have already been affected by Tropical Cyclones MITAG and RAGASA, increasing their vulnerability to the impacts of the incoming tropical cyclone.
IMPACTS: According to the NDRRMC Situation Report No. 14 issued on 25 September 2025 at 1100H UTC+7, the combined effects of Tropical Cyclones MITAG and RAGASA have caused the following impacts:
- Casualties include 13 deaths, 17 injuries, and 2 missing persons
- 918,476 affected population (225,448 families) in 11 regions, 40 provinces, and 292 cities/municipalities
- 49,546 displaced population, of which 22,062 people are in 384 evacuation centres
- 292 flooded areas and 19 related incidents (landslides, tornadoes/destructive winds, collapsed structure, maritime incident)
- 211 road sections and 34 bridge sections affected (37% passable to all vehicles)
- 1 airport and 52 seaports affected
- 744.76 hectares of crops affected
- Approximately USD 634.9K worth of damages in agriculture and infrastructure
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- NDRRMOC maintains RED alert status as response operations areas affected by TCs MITAG and RAGASA continues while also implementing preparedness measures for Tropical Cyclone BUALOI. All response clusters have been activated and the Inter-Agency Coordinating Council (IACC) regularly convenes and coordinates the emergency response.
- According to NDRRMC, the Department of Interior and Local Government (DILG) has placed local government units on heightened alert, urging activation of Operation L!STO protocols, preemptive evacuations, and securing of evacuation centers with food, water, and medical supplies, while barangay disaster committees coordinate closely with local police, fire, and rescue units.
- A total o 16,442 people have been pre-emptively evacuated in Regions I, II, III, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, CAR, and NIR.
- Land transportation from Metro Manila to Visayas and Mindanao have been suspended. Authorities have advised the public to avoid non-essential travel in areas with TCWS.
- NDRRMC and PAGASA conduct regular press briefings to update the public about the developments of the weather conditions and response operations.
The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor the situation, in coordination with the affected and potentially affected ASEAN Member States, and stands ready to provide support should the need arise.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); Pacific Disaster Center (PDC Global); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS, MGB;
Viet Nam: NCHMF;
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