OVERVIEW: According to NDRRMC, Tropical Cyclone BUALOI made landfall in six areas in the Eastern Visayas, Bicol, and MIMAROPA Regions in the Philippines from around midnight until noon (PST) of 26 September 2025, leaving widespread destruction along its path. BUALOI then continued to track in a generally west-northwestward direction towards the Viet Nam East Sea. According to NCHMF, as of 0100H of 28 September 2025, the centre of BUALOI was located about 16.0N, 110.8E, in the area west of Hoang Sa special zone, about 270km east of Da Nang City
STRENGTH, INTENSITY, MOVEMENT: According to NCHMF, the strongest wind near the centre of Tropical Cyclone BUALOI is level 12 (118-133km/h), gusting to level 15, and minimum central pressure at 975 hPa. It is moving fast at 30 km/h (nearly twice the average speed) towards the west northwest direction with a wide area of influence.
FORECAST:
According to NCHMF Storm News at 0100H UTC+7:
- At 1300H, 28 September: BUALOI will continue moving west northwestward at about 30 km/h and likely to strengthen on the sea of Ha Tinh to Hue City, about 140 km east of Quang Tri. Winds will be at level 12-13 with gusts up to level 16.
- At 0100H, 29 September, BUALOI will maintain its west northwestward movement at 30 km/h on mainland in the vicinity of Nghe An to Ha Tinh provinces with winds at level 9-10 and gusts up to level 13.
- At 1300H, 29 September, BUALOI will maintain its direction, slowing to 20-25 km/h while moving further inland and weakening into a tropical depression then low pressure area over Northern Lao PDR.
HAZARDS:
LAO PDR: According to DMH Lao PDR,
- The influence of Tropical Cyclone BUALOI and southwest monsoon will bring light to moderate thunderstorms with heavy to very heavy rainfall accompanied by strong winds in each region including Vientiane Capital. Continuous heavy rainfall for days may cause landslides, flash floods, and urban flooding.
THAILAND: According to TMD,
- Due to the influence of Tropical Cyclone BUALOI, a strong monsoon trough will pass over the lower northern, upper central, and northeastern regions of Thailand from 28–30 September 2025. Combined with the prevailing strong southwest monsoon over the Andaman Sea and the Gulf of Thailand, this will bring widespread heavy rainfall, with very heavy rain in some areas of the Northern and Northeastern regions along the storm’s edge, as well as in the Eastern and Western Southern regions. The heavy and accumulated rainfall may trigger flash floods, mudslides, and river overflows, especially in hillside communities, areas near waterways, low-lying zones, and locations already experiencing flooding.
VIET NAM: According to NCHMF,
- Strong winds and rough seas: Strong winds of level 8-9 and up to level 13 near the centre of the storm, with gusts up to level 16; Waves reaching up to 6–10m and up to 8m near the storm’s centre. Very dangerous for vessels in the North & Central East Sea, Gulf of Tonkin, and Thanh Hoa–Quang Ngai waters. On land, from Thanh Hoa to Northern Quant Tri, winds will gradually increase to level 6-7 up to level 10-12 (wind force can knock down trees, houses, electric poles, causing very heavy damage) and gusts up to level 14 near the storm’s centre. Coastal areas from Quang Ninh–Ninh Binh and South Quang Tri–Hue City will have winds at level 6-7 (trees shake, difficult to go against the wind), and gusts up to level 8-9.
- Storm surge: Coastal areas and islands from Ninh Binh tp Ha Tinh will have storm surges from 0.5-1.5m high, especially from South Thanh Hoa to North Ha Tinh, where surges may reach 1.0-1.5m high. The risk of flooding of dykes, coastal roads, and river mouths due to storm surges and waves is very high on the evening 28 September 2025.
- Heavy rainfall: From 28-30 September 2025, in the North and the area from Thanh Hoa to Quang Ngai, there is a possibility of widespread heavy rain with total rainfall ranging from 100-300mm, locally over 450mm; in the Northern Delta, South Phu Tho and from Thanh Hoa to North Quang Tri, the total rainfall is from 200-400mm, locally over 600mm. Warning of the risk of heavy rain (>200mm/3 hours)
- Current conditions: Heavy to very heavy rainfall have been observed in the past 24 hours under the influence of Tropical Cyclone BUALOI. According to VNDMS, water levels are starting to rise in the Central Region while some stations in the North (Thanh Hoa) have already exceeded alarm levels.
ANTICIPATED RISKS:
- According to the MOWRAM of Cambodia, heavy to very heavy rainfall in the upper Sekong, Sesan, and Sre Pok river basins in Lao PDR and Viet Nam may affect the lower basins in Cambodia and may cause flooding in Ratanakiri, Mondulkiri, and Stung Treng provinces. MRC 5-day forecast indicates about 4 stations (Cambodia – Stung Treng, Kratie; Lao PDR – Pakse; Thailand – Khong Chiam) to reach Alarm-level from 28 September to 2 October 2025.
- According to PAGASA’s Tropical Cyclone (TC) – Threat Potential, a tropical cyclone like vortex (TCLV-1) is forecast to develop over the eastern boundary of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) with a low likelihood of TC formation until 2 October 2025. In Week 2 (3-9 October), this TCLV (1) will move towards Luzon with an increased likelihood (moderate) of TC development. Meanwhile, another TCLV (2) is expected to form over the northeastern boundaries of PAR with a low likelihood of TC genesis.
IMPACTS:
PHILIPPINES: According to the NDRRMC Situation Report No. 24 issued on 27 September 2025 at 2300H UTC+7, the combined effects of Tropical Cyclones MITAG, RAGASA, and BUALOI have caused the following impacts:
- 26 deaths, 33 injuries, and 14 missing persons
- 2,652,834 affected population (697,323 families) in 16 regions, 62 provinces, and 619 municipalities
- 255,871 displaced population, of which 132,002 people are being served in 2,331 evacuation centres
- 615 flooded areas and 40 related incidents (landslides, tornadoes/destructive winds, collapsed structure, storm surge, etc.)
- 261 road sections and 50 bridge sections affected (37% passable to all vehicles)
- 8,916 damaged houses (7,297 partially damaged, 1,619 totally damaged)
- Approximately USD 29.9M worth of damage and losses in agriculture and infrastructure.
- 53 cities/municipalities were declared under the State of Calamity
According to OCD, identified needs include shelter repair kits, construction materials, family kits, and hygiene kits.
VIET NAM: According to VDDMA, due to the influence of Tropical Cyclone BUALOI, areas in the Central Region have experienced heavy rainfall in the past 24 hours. Hue City has recorded heavy to very heavy rainfall and many residential areas and major traffic routes have been severely inundated. As of the afternoon of 27 September, water levels rose rapidly causing serious disruption to local communities
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
LAO PDR: NDMO Lao PDR and DMH are closely monitoring the tropical cyclone and associated hazards, providing regular updates and advisories. NDMO Lao PDR coordinates preparedness measures with relevant authorities.
PHILIPPINES: NDRRMOC maintains *RED* alert status as it continues to coordinate and lead response operations in areas affected by TCs MITAG, RAGASA, and BUALOI. Ongoing actions include debris clearing, search and rescue operations, and the distribution of food and non-food relief items. Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDANA) teams have also been mobilised. A total of 407,450 individuals were pre-emptively evacuated and have started to return home with the support of authorities.
THAILAND: DDPM continues to respond to the flooding in 13 provinces while also monitoring and preparing for potential impacts of the incoming tropical cyclone. DDPM and TMD provides advisories and regular updates to warn the public and prepare for the potential impacts of TC BUALOI.
VIET NAM: Following the Prime Minister’s directive and Deputy Prime Minister’s guidance, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment has instructed provincial authorities to urgently strengthen storm and flood preparedness. VDDMA coordinates the implementation of key measures including recalling and securing vessels, evacuating at-risk populations, safeguarding dikes and reservoirs, ensuring communication and supplies, and deploying forces and equipment for rapid response, and close coordination with local authorities.
The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor the situation, in coordination with the affected and potentially affected ASEAN Member States, and stands ready to provide support should the need arise.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS);
Cambodia: MOWRAM;
Lao PDR: NDMO, DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC-OCD, PAGASA;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
Verified news media agencies
