OVERVIEW: According to PAGASA, Tropical Cyclone NOKAEN has intensified into a tropical storm while over the Philippine Sea east of Bicol Region. As of 0900H UTC+7, the centre of Tropical Cyclone NOKAEN has been located based on all available data over the coastal waters of Baras, Catanduanes.
STRENGTH, EXTENT, & MOVEMENT: According to PAGASA’s Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 13 issued at 1000H UTC+7:
Maximum sustained winds at 85 km/h with gustiness up to 115 km/h, minimum central pressure at 994 hPa, moving northwestward at 25 km/h. Strong to gale-force winds extend outwards up to 400 km from the centre.
FORECAST: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin No. 13 issued at 1000H UTC+7:
- TRACK: NOKAEN will move generally northwestward today before slowly turning northward to northeastward tomorrow (18 Jan). From tomorrow onwards, NOKAEN is forecast to move slowly in a looping pattern over the sea east of Southern Luzon. A further westward shift in the forecast track may result in a possible landfall over Catanduanes. Furthermore, changes in forecast track over the succeeding bulletins is possible.
- INTENSITY: NOKAEN is forecast to remain as a tropical storm while moving over the sea east of Southern Luzon. However, further intensification to severe tropical storm is not ruled out. This tropical cyclone will then weaken into a tropical depression by Tuesday (20 Jan) afternoon or evening due to the effects of the surge of the northeast monsoon.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WING SIGNALS IN EFFECT:
- TCWS No. 2 Warning lead time 24 hours, range of wind speeds: 62 to 88 km/h (Beaufort 8 to 9) is raised over the following areas: The eastern portions of Camarines Norte, the eastern and central portions of Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar.
- TCWS No. 1 Warning lead time 36 hours, range of wind speeds: 39 to 61 km/h (Beaufort 6 to 7) is raised over the following areas: The eastern portion of Quezon including Polillo Islands, Marinduque, the eastern portion of Romblon (Cajidiocan, Magdiwang, San Fernando), the rest of Camarines Norte, the rest of Camarines Sur, and Masbate, Eastern Samar, Samar, Biliran, the northern portion of Leyte, and the northern portion of Cebu, including Bantayan Islands.
HAZARDS:
Severe Winds – The wind signals warn the public of the general wind threat over an area due to the tropical cyclone. Local winds may be slightly stronger/enhanced in coastal and upland/mountainous areas exposed to winds. Winds are less strong in areas sheltered from the prevailing wind direction.
- Minor to moderate impacts from gale-force winds are possible within any of the localities where Wind Signal No. 2 is hoisted.
- Minimal to minor impacts from strong winds are possible within any of the areas under Wind Signal No. 1.
- The Northeast Monsoon and the periphery of NOKAEN will also bring strong to gale-force gusts over the following areas (especially in coastal and upland areas exposed to winds): Today: Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, northern and eastern mainland Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Aurora, Quezon, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Aklan, Capiz, northern Cebu, Eastern Visayas, and Dinagat Islands; Tomorrow (18 January): Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Aurora, Quezon, Marinduque, Romblon, Bicol Region, and Northern Samar; Monday (19 January): Batanes, Cagayan, Isabela, Ilocos Norte, Abra, Aurora, Polillo Islands, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, and Catanduanes.
Heavy Rainfall – Heavy rainfall outlook due to Tropical Cyclone NOKAEN and the Southwest Monsoon is issued for the following areas today:
- >200 mm: Catanduanes
- 100-200 mm: Camarines Sur, Albay, Sorsogon, and Northern Samar
- 50-100 mm: Quezon, Camarines Norte, Masbate, Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran. Tomorrow noon to Monday noon (19 Jan): Quezon, Camarines Norte, Catanduanes, and Camarines Sur.
- According to PAGASA, the amount of rainfall may cause the following impacts:
- >200mm rainfall: Widespread incidents of severe flooding and landslides expected.
- 100-200mm rainfall: Numerous flooding events are likely especially in moderate to highly susceptible areas. Landslide likely in moderate to highly susceptible areas.
- 50-100mm rainfall: Localised flooding is possible mainly in areas that are urbanised, low-lying, or near rivers. Landslide possible in highly susceptible areas.
Coastal Inundation
- There is a minimal to moderate risk of storm surge with peak heights reaching up to 2.0 m within the next 48 hours over the low-lying or exposed coastal communities of Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Northern Samar, Eastern Samar, Samar, and Biliran.
ANTICIPATED RISK:
- Since further intensification to severe tropical storm is not ruled out, raising of Wind Signal No. 3 is possible.
- Heavy rainfall associated with the cyclone may exacerbate lahar and sediment-laden streamflow risks at Mt. Mayon (PHIVOLCS), which remains at Alert Level 3 (increased tendency towards a hazardous eruption), with possible escalation to Alert Level 4 (intense unrest). As of 16 Jan, around 5K people have been displaced, including 4K currently accommodated in 12 evacuation centres.
- Weak La Niña is present in the tropical Pacific. Based on the latest forecast, La Niña is likely to persist until the first quarter of 2026. La Niña increases the likelihood of above normal rainfall conditions and increased occurrence of tropical cyclone development in the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR). During this season, rain-bearing weather systems may bring occasional heavy rainfall, particularly over the eastern sections of the country. (PAGASA)
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- The NDRRMCOC raised its Alert Status to BLUE in connection with Tropical Cyclone NOKAEN, coordinating with concerned regional offices and local authorities for tropical cyclone preparedness and response.
- NDRRMC and PAGASA conducts regular press briefings to update the public about the developments of the weather conditions and preparations for the potential impacts of the tropical cyclone.
- PHIVOLCS continues to closely monitor Mt. Mayon and provides regular advisories on the volcanic activity and associated hazards with the incoming tropical cyclone.
The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor the situation in coordination with NDRRMC Philippines, and remains ready to provide assistance should the need arise.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
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