OVERVIEW: According to PAGASA, at 0100H UTC+7 today, the low pressure area (INVEST 92W) developed into a tropical depression and was given the local name “VERBENA.” Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2 at 0700H UTC+7 indicates that Tropical Cyclone VERBENA maintains its strength as it continues to move westward over the Philippine Sea. It was located based on all available data at 290 km east of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte.
STRENGTH AND MOVEMENT: According to PAGASA, Verbena has maximum sustained winds of 45 km/h near the centre, gustiness of up to 55 km/h, and central pressure of 1002 hPa, moving westward at 20 km/h. Strong to gale force winds extend outwards up to 200 km from the centre.
FORECAST: According to PAGASA Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2:
- TRACK: VERBENA will move generally west northwestward and will make landfall or pass close over northeastern Mindanao this afternoon before crossing Visayas and the northern portion of Palawan from today until Wednesday (26 November). It will then emerge over the West Philippine Sea by Wednesday morning.
- INTENSITY: VERBENA may slightly intensify prior to making landfall over northeastern Mindanao but will likely cross the Philippine landmass as a tropical depression. Once it emerges over the West Philippine Sea, it is then forecast to intensify further into a tropical storm.
PAGASA emphasizes that heavy rainfall, severe winds, and storm surge may still be experienced in localities outside the landfall point and the forecast confidence cone. Furthermore, the track may still shift within the limit of the forecast confidence cone.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WIND SIGNALS (TCWS):
- TCWS No. 1 (Minimal to minor threat to life and property): The southern portion of Occidental Mindoro, the southern portion of Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, the northern portion of Palawan including Cuyo and Calamian Islands, mainland Masbate, the central and southern portions of Eastern Samar, the central and southern portions of Samar, Biliran, Leyte, Southern Leyte, Cebu, Camotes Islands, Bohol, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Iloilo, Capiz, Aklan, Antique including Caluya Islands, Guimaras, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte including Siargao and Bucas Grande Islands, the northern portion of Surigao del Sur, Agusan del Norte, the northern portion of Agusan del Sur, Camiguin, and the northeastern portion of Misamis Oriental.
HAZARDS:
- Heavy Rainfall: According to PAGASA Weather Advisory No. 17, the following areas are forecast to receive significant rainfall from today until Wednesday (26 November) due to Tropical Cyclone Verbena and the Shear Line:
- 100-200mm: Today – Eastern Samar, Samar, Leyte, Biliran, Southern Leyte, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, and Dinagat Islands; Tomorrow (25 November) – Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Romblon, Oriental Mindoro, Leyte, Biliran, Cebu, Negros Occidental, Aklan, Capiz, and Iloilo; on Wednesday (26 November) – Occidental Mindoro, Cagayan, Isabela, and Aurora. Numerous flooding events are likely, especially in areas that are highly urbanized, low-lying, or near rivers. Landslide likely in moderate to highly susceptible areas.
- 50-100mm: Today – Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Catanduanes, Albay, Sorsogon, Masbate, Capiz, Iloilo, Guimaras, Negros Occidental, Negros Oriental, Cebu, Bohol, Siquijor, Northern Samar, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Misamis Oriental, Bukidnon, Camiguin, Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, and Quezon; Tomorrow (25 November) – Batangas, Occidental Mindoro, Marinduque, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Palawan, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar, Southern Leyte, Bohol, Negros Oriental, Siquijor, Antique, Guimaras, Dinagat Islands, Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino, Apayao, Kalinga, Aurora, and Quezon; on Wednesday (26 November) – Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Cavite, Batangas, Laguna, Oriental Mindoro, Marinduque, Palawan, Romblon, Aklan, and Antique. Localised flooding is possible mainly in areas that are urbanized, low lying, or near rivers. Landslide possible in highly susceptible areas.
- Rain-Induced Landslides and Flooding: A total of 13,983 barangays were identified at risk of rain-induced landslides and flooding based in PAGASA’s 72 hr rainfall forecast. (MGB)
ANTICIPATED RISK:
- Forecast track will pass through areas affected by recent tropical cyclones. Increased vulnerabilities may exacerbate impacts of Tropical Cyclone Verbena.
- Forecast track indicate that Verbena may reach the Viet Nam East Sea off the coast of the Central Region which has been severely affected by numerous landslides and widespread flooding that has exceeded historical records. Significant rainfall from Tropical Cyclone Verbena may further exacerbate the flooding situation in Central Viet Nam.
PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE:
- NDRRMOC elevated its alert status from WHITE to BLUE in relation to Tropical Cyclone VERBENA.
- The Mines and Geosciences Bureau (MGB) has released the list of barangays susceptible to rain-induced landslides and flooding based on PAGASA Rainfall Data GSM (100mm) and WRF (150mm) 72 hour model to inform the public and local authorities, supporting localised preparedness and response for the incoming tropical cyclone.
- PAGASA conducts regular press briefings and issues regular warnings and advisories to
- NDRRMC and PAGASA continues to monitor and release advisories and early warning information Tropical Cyclone VERBENA.
The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor the situation in coordination with the NDRRMC Philippines and other potentially affected ASEAN Member States, and remains ready to provide assistance should the need arise.
DATA SOURCES
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS), ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet), ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC);
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, MGB;
Verified news media agencies
