ASEAN Risk Monitor and Disaster Management Review (ARMOR)

Rendering 2023 Disastergram: Is ASEAN going to the right path for Sustainable Resilience?

Southeast Asia continues to present itself as the region most prone to natural disasters. With the effects of climate change becoming more tangible, Southeast Asia, given its geography, will face it’s full force. But beyond the relentless droughts, earthquakes, floods, typhoons and tsunamis, the nature of disasters is evolving, to the extent new threats such as the recent Covid19 pandemic have emerged. But with these disasters not only continuing to plague humanity, but also growing in its ability to threaten both urban and rural populations, Southeast Asia’s ability to withstand these challenge, and whether this resilience is sustainable, will be put to the test.

In alignment with the ASEAN Vision 2025 on Disaster Management, ASEAN endeavours to enhance its capacity to respond effectively to disasters and demonstrate global leadership in disaster management by 2025. The AHA Centre, in its mission to support ASEAN’s endeavours in disaster response and management, introduces the 4th edition of the ASEAN Risk Monitor and Disaster Management Review (ARMOR), titled: “Rendering 2023 Disastegram: Is ASEAN going to the right path for Sustainable Resilience”

The 4th edition of ARMOR, through the contributors in this edition, will underline the importance of strengthening sustainable disaster resilience in Southeast Asia, and offer suggestions and improvements that can be made to existing approaches and initiatives. The contributions offer multifaceted insights that encompasses culture, education, the use of data and technology, as well as government policies to highlight the steps needed to achieve sustainable disaster resilience in the region.

Building Sustainable Resilience: Navigating Systemic Risks, Enhancing Resilience: elaborates on the concept of Sustainable Resilience which was introduced by the President of Indonesia with aims to address complex issues and strengthen climate and disaster resilience while aligning with global agendas.

ASEAN Disaster Risk Sustainable Resilience: Incorporating Sustainable Development Goals into ASEAN Riskscape assesses the latest disaster risk of the ASEAN region and incorporates the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as components to build resilience. The assessment seeks to understand the impact of sustainable development efforts on the ASEAN Riskscape.

The Disaster-Threat Passivity Phenomenon: A Concept Analysis investigates human passivity and indifference towards the threat of disasters. In particular, it investigates the reasons for human passivity and offers cross-dimensional solutions to address it.

Towards Better Information for Improved Disaster Risk Management in Southeast Asian: Informal Settlements recognises the exacerbated threat and risks disasters have to informal settlements in Southeast Asia and studies how the use of nature-based solutions may benefit these communities. The article also explores how technology can be utilised to evaluate and support nature-based solutions , through the use of low-cost environmental sensors, IT tools for citizen space and satellite remote sensing.

Enhancing Sustainable Disaster Management Solutions on Displacement in Southeast Asia using Data-Driven Approaches: using Data-Driven Approaches compiles varying forms of data to assess the impact disasters have on displacement across different Southeast Asian nations. By collecting and analysing data, the article also identifies factors and areas the targeted Southeast Asian nations have to take into consideration in mitigating disaster-induced displacement.

Catalysing Adaptive Social Protection for Sustainable Resilience – in Southeast Asia: Gaps, Stakeholders, and Policy Mechanisms: draws attention to lapses in ASEAN member state’s approaches to Adaptive Social Protection. It highlights the importance of involving multi-sector stakeholders, accompanied by all-encompassing socio-economic data, in the design and planning of programmes catered to enhancing social protection, disaster-risk reduction and climate change adaptation strategies. It also recommends adopting Disaster-Risk Financing to encourage greater protection from and facilitate human adaptability and resilience towards disasters.

Unveiling the ASEAN-Civil Society Partnership: Navigating Disaster Resilience through Collaboration: identifies the areas ASEAN and ASEAN member states have collaborated with Civil Society Organisations on, specifically in relation to disaster risk reduction and management. The article underlines how these partnerships has contributed to improvements in the region’s Disaster Resilience, but also offers recommendations for greater ASEAN-Civil Society interactions.

Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction in Rakhine State, Myanmar: examines the benefits of Community-Based Disaster Risk Reduction (CBDRR) strategies in improving disaster preparedness and response and enhancing sustainable disaster resilience. Noting the challenges faced in Rakhine State, it encourages greater involvement of ASEAN, international organisations and local stakeholders in Community-based Disaster Risk Reduction.

Anticipatory Action for Disaster Management and Sustainable Resilience: Lessons from ASEAN Countries. reinforces the need for Anticipatory Action as a key mechanism of Disaster Risk Reduction and Management. It reflects on actions disaster management stakeholders in Southeast Asia can take to advance the Anticipatory Action agenda, in order to consolidate and build-on the region’s disaster resilience.

Policy Research for Policy Proposal for the People: Drought Modelling for Post Disaster Needs Assessment in Thailand endeavors to construct a drought assessment model tailored for application within the context of Post-Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNA). The Thai National Research Council supported this research as a pilot project in four Northeastern provinces: Nakhon Ratchasima, Chaiyaphum, Buriram, and Surin. The study’s core concept involves the development of a drought model that harnesses satellite imagery and indices in conjunction with in-depth interviews to extract socio-economic factors, thereby enhancing the quality of outcomes for policymaking.

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When Disasters and Pandemic Collide: What does it mean to ASEAN, now and into the future?

With the publication of the third edition of the ASEAN Risk Monitor and Disaster Management Review (ARMOR) – titled When Disasters and Pandemic Collide: What does it mean to ASEAN, now and into the future? – the AHA Centre continues to provide well-researched and in-depth analysis of issues relating to disaster management in the ASEAN region. ARMOR has now established itself as a regular source of knowledge, seeking to share information on innovations and best practices on disaster management and crisis management in what is one of the most disaster-prone regions in the world.

In the study of disaster management, it is not sufficient to produce research for research sake, simply adding to the many journals of interest only to academics. It is essential that such research is made available, as a comprehensive and readily available source of reference to support development and implementation of disaster management policy.

With this in mind, and with the active contributions from academia and disaster management professionals, ARMOR aimed to provide critical data and intelligence in an accessible format to policymakers and officials, as well as to practitioners in the field. By doing so, ARMOR plays its part in fulfilling its role of supporting the implementation of the ASEAN Vision 2025 on Disaster Management.

Given the nature of the health crisis endured globally and in the ASEAN region as a result of COVID-19 in the past years, the contributors in this edition bring highlights to how the current pandemic affected disaster management policymaking. This edition not solely focuses on the COVID-19 pandemic, but also deals with innovative methods, including the latest information and communication and satellite technology, that can be used to speed up the analysis of real-time data and the cross-border provision of aid during disasters, in anticipation of future pandemics.

Disaster and Pandemic: The Exacerbating Effects of COVID-19 on ASEAN’s Disaster Riskscape examines the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on disaster risk and disaster management and emergency response in the ASEAN region, in particular how the pandemic worsened the disaster riskscape of the ASEAN region, and how the region adapted its disaster management practices to cope with the pandemic.

Leveraging Artificial Intelligence for Enhanced Flood Emergency Response, Amidst COVID-19 Pandemic illustrates how the UN Satellite Centre’s (UNOSAT) FloodAI programme can provide up-to-date imagery of flood-prone areas. The imagery is processed by a deeplearning model to generate flooding maps and update operational dashboards. This allows decision makers to optimise the response to flooding in a much shorter timeframe than through human-based analysis, thus reducing the loss of life and mitigating damage.

ASEAN Single Window: Towards More Efficient & Faster Facilitation of Customs Clearance explains how the ASEAN Single Window, a regional initiative that combines the direct exchange of data between ASEAN Member States can be used to synchronise the data exchange across borders in order to expedite and streamline cargo clearance and shipment release throughout the region in times of disaster, especially during pandemic-induced mobility restrictions.

As Local as Possible – COVID-19 impacts on localisation efforts and humanitarian response: Opportunities for the AHA Centre discusses the leveraging of localisation in disaster management. Taking as its theme “as local as possible, as international as necessary” the study determines how localisation has evolved, particularly amid the COVID-19 pandemic; defines the role of the AHA Centre in operationalising local efforts and analysing sustainable methodologies; and reflects on adaptations of the broader ASEAN humanitarian system.

This edition also includes a special feature article on Emergency Response in a Pandemic: the Singapore COVID-19 Experience, which provides a synopsis of how the Singapore Civil Defence Force coped with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on its operations at home and in the wider region through its Operation Lionheart, outlining the many practical measures taken and adaptations made to ensure continuity of operations.

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Time is Running Out: Why ASEAN Must Act Now against Climate Emergencies

This 2nd edition of the ASEAN Risk Monitor and Disaster Management Review (ARMOR), Time is Running Out: Why ASEAN Must Act Now against Climate Emergencies, aims to advance the publication’s objective of providing authoritative information specifically regarding the ASEAN region. The region has a growing need for critical analysis and synthesis of data to inform policy decisions and disaster management operations. With ARMOR, the AHA Centre addresses this need and supports the implementation of the ASEAN Vision 2025 on Disaster Management by taking ownership of knowledge, ensuring application of disaster management science, and providing a platform for emerging researchers to contribute collectively to disaster management in the region. The AHA Centre also acts as the network coordinator for developing disaster management standards and facilitating a platform for knowledge exchange for the next generation of regional disaster management leaders.

The 1st edition of ARMOR, Bridging Science & Decision Making, provided a baseline that the 2nd edition builds on to identify changes and patterns that occurred over the past year, leading to evidence-based conclusions and recommendations for specific Member States and their individual circumstances. The 2nd edition uses both historical data and the most up-to-date information, trends, and risk profiles of the ASEAN countries with regards to climate change and disasters. ARMOR bridges the gap between science and policy by consolidating knowledge from the data, showcasing best practices, and inspiring further innovations in the areas of risk monitoring and disaster management. This includes highlighting the latest research tools and initiatives that ASEAN countries can employ to improve their data collection and analysis, as well as make informed decisions in policy development.

Real and Present Danger: What Does a 1.5°C Increase Mean to ASEAN? summarises the latest assessments and outlook of climate change impacts in the ASEAN region and includes overviews of important points from subsequent chapters.

The Threat-Multiplier: Climate Change and Disaster Riskscape in ASEAN builds on the importance of disaster risk assessment in the region, outlining how each country’s risk profile has changed over time and since the previous ARMOR report.

Food at Risk: The Repercussions of Climate Change and Drought in the Lower
Mekong Region explores the relationship between drought and food insecurity in the Lower Mekong region, demonstrating how the available tools in the affected countries can help improve decision-making processes and address impacts of drought resulting from climate change.

Understanding Drought: When to Sound the Alarm? discusses the challenges posed by drought and how to apply a proactive approach through the use of risk assessments, early warning services, risk financing, and adaptive capacity.

One Year Down: The State of ASEAN’s Flood and Drought Early Warning Systems evaluates the implementation of early warning systems for flood and drought in the ASEAN region and proposes a model for assessing them.

When Early Actions Save Lives: Anticipating Instead of Reacting with Forecast-based Financing discusses how the region can address the various impacts of climate change through a proactive approach called Forecast-based Financing rather than relying on traditional reactive approaches.

Three Weeks’ Notice: Forecasting Extreme Weather Events with Subseasonal-to- Seasonal Climate Prediction illustrates the potential applications for disaster preparedness of bridging shorter-term weather forecasts with seasonal predictions in the ASEAN region.

Where to Go? Finding Durable Solutions for Disaster-Displaced Persons in Southeast Asia addresses the indirect consequences of climate change by discussing durable solutions to population displacement in Southeast Asia.

Finally, Policies Tackling Climate Risks: Is ASEAN Moving to the Right Direction? turns to national and regional policies in ASEAN, discussing how they fit into the bigger picture of modern climate agreements and frameworks.

This 2nd edition of ARMOR represents a vital second step in establishing a consistent initiative in the ASEAN region. The AHA Centre recognises the many contributions from numerous individuals and organisations that made this publication possible and hopes that future editions of ARMOR will continue to prove the value of such collaborations in addressing the regional challenges of climate change.

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Bridging Science and Decision Making

The ASEAN Risk Monitor and Disaster Management Review (ARMOR) is important for several reasons. Firstly, until this point there has been no authoritative publication that provides risk profile information specifically regarding the ASEAN region. Secondly, with an ever-growing body of accumulated knowledge and information on disaster in the region, there is an urgent need to provide critical analysis and synthesis that can inform policy making and disaster management operations, both within the region and outside. Finally, ARMOR will importantly become the first regular publication to showcase best practices, trends and innovations in disaster management in ASEAN.

ARMOR aims to fill these gaps. It aims to consolidate knowledge related to risk monitoring and disaster management within the ASEAN region, and seeks to provide a space for the sharing of best practices and latest research and analysis, while showcasing innovations and inspiring disaster managers and researchers across the region and the world.

To achieve this status, ARMOR will serve several functions. First, the publication will provide the most up-to-date risk profiles, data and trend analyses pertaining to natural disasters and climate risks, based on the latest monitoring and research initiatives, to inform decision making and policy development within ASEAN. Secondly, ARMOR will facilitate the sharing of best practices and lessons learnt from past operations, while also seeking to bridge the gap between research and operations within the region.

Accordingly, ARMOR supports the implementation of the ASEAN Vision 2025 on Disaster Management, by taking ownership of knowledge and ensuring application of relevant disaster management science for the region. It will also provide a platform for aspiring researchers and practitioners to contribute to this regional vision, and ensure collective efforts for ASEAN to become a pioneer in disaster management. These aims are also in line with the role of the AHA Centre as the network coordinator in developing disaster management-related standards, providing a platform for exchange of knowledge and best practices, and developing the next generation of regional disaster management leaders.

This first edition of ARMOR will cover a wide range of topics. Chapter 1 on the Trillion Dollar Multi-Hazard Risk Landscape in Southeast Asia will describe the risk profiles of each country in ASEAN. Chapter 2 on Most-at-Risk Cities in ASEAN That Must be Watched will discuss the findings from research regarding cities in ASEAN that face considerable risks of disaster. Chapter 3 on Why Climate Change Matters for ASEAN explores the potential threats that climate change will bring to the ASEAN region, particularly in terms of water, food, and health security. Chapter 4 on the State of Early Warning System in ASEAN provides a snapshot of the current early warning system within ASEAN, and how it was tested in recent disasters. Chapter 5 Natech: The Silent and Potentially Deadly Threat in ASEAN discusses the growing potential risk of Natech (technological incidence/disasters triggered by natural hazards) in the ASEAN region, and how ASEAN can work to mitigate such risks.

Chapter 6 on Application of Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) for Drought Monitoring proposes an innovative way to accurately and immediately identify drought events, that can be utilised by policy makers to engage in early and significant interventions. Chapter 7 on Regional Knowledge Hub for Disaster Management: Strategy, Policy and Practice in ASEAN proposes options and strategies for the AHA Centre to fully realise its role as a knowledge hub for disaster management. Chapter 8 on Regional Centrality and the Shift of Humanitarian Landscape: The Case of ASEAN discusses the evolving roles of the AHA Centre by comparing two uniquely different emergency response operations – super typhoon Haiyan and the earthquake and tsunami in Central Sulawesi.

Chapter 9 on Achieving the ASEAN 2025 Vision for Disaster Management: Lessons from a Worthy Journey looks back on some of the key lessons learned from ASEAN’s experience in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, and discusses options for ASEAN to explore and move forward. Chapter 10 on Utilisation of Space-based Information for Supporting Emergency Response and Recovery was written based on actual emergency response experiences in which space-based information was utilised alongside direct field observation to inform operational decision making.

The first step of something new is always special, but is also often the most challenging. The AHA Centre could not manage this first step without the support from numerous individuals who contributed their time and energy to ensure the launch of the first ARMOR publication. The AHA Centre is grateful for this support and contribution, and looking forward to continuing this collaboration into future editions of ARMOR.

ASEAN Risk Monitor and Disaster Management Review (ARMOR)

Rendering 2023 Disastergram: Is ASEAN going to the right path for Sustainable Resilience?

When Disasters and Pandemic Collide: What does it mean to ASEAN, now and into the future?

Time is Running Out: Why ASEAN Must Act Now against Climate Emergencies

Bridging Science and Decision Making

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