Time is Running Out: Why ASEAN Must Act Now against Climate Emergencies
This 2nd edition of the ASEAN Risk Monitor and Disaster Management Review (ARMOR), Time is Running Out: Why ASEAN Must Act Now against Climate Emergencies, aims to advance the publication’s objective of providing authoritative information specifically regarding the ASEAN region. The region has a growing need for critical analysis and synthesis of data to inform policy decisions and disaster management operations. With ARMOR, the AHA Centre addresses this need and supports the implementation of the ASEAN Vision 2025 on Disaster Management by taking ownership of knowledge, ensuring application of disaster management science, and providing a platform for emerging researchers to contribute collectively to disaster management in the region. The AHA Centre also acts as the network coordinator for developing disaster management standards and facilitating a platform for knowledge exchange for the next generation of regional disaster management leaders.
The 1st edition of ARMOR, Bridging Science & Decision Making, provided a baseline that the 2nd edition builds on to identify changes and patterns that occurred over the past year, leading to evidence-based conclusions and recommendations for specific Member States and their individual circumstances. The 2nd edition uses both historical data and the most up-to-date information, trends, and risk profiles of the ASEAN countries with regards to climate change and disasters. ARMOR bridges the gap between science and policy by consolidating knowledge from the data, showcasing best practices, and inspiring further innovations in the areas of risk monitoring and disaster management. This includes highlighting the latest research tools and initiatives that ASEAN countries can employ to improve their data collection and analysis, as well as make informed decisions in policy development.
Real and Present Danger: What Does a 1.5°C Increase Mean to ASEAN? summarises the latest assessments and outlook of climate change impacts in the ASEAN region and includes overviews of important points from subsequent chapters.
The Threat-Multiplier: Climate Change and Disaster Riskscape in ASEAN builds on the importance of disaster risk assessment in the region, outlining how each country’s risk profile has changed over time and since the previous ARMOR report.
Food at Risk: The Repercussions of Climate Change and Drought in the Lower
Mekong Region explores the relationship between drought and food insecurity in the Lower Mekong region, demonstrating how the available tools in the affected countries can help improve decision-making processes and address impacts of drought resulting from climate change.
Understanding Drought: When to Sound the Alarm? discusses the challenges posed by drought and how to apply a proactive approach through the use of risk assessments, early warning services, risk financing, and adaptive capacity.
One Year Down: The State of ASEAN’s Flood and Drought Early Warning Systems evaluates the implementation of early warning systems for flood and drought in the ASEAN region and proposes a model for assessing them.
When Early Actions Save Lives: Anticipating Instead of Reacting with Forecast-based Financing discusses how the region can address the various impacts of climate change through a proactive approach called Forecast-based Financing rather than relying on traditional reactive approaches.
Three Weeks’ Notice: Forecasting Extreme Weather Events with Subseasonal-to- Seasonal Climate Prediction illustrates the potential applications for disaster preparedness of bridging shorter-term weather forecasts with seasonal predictions in the ASEAN region.
Where to Go? Finding Durable Solutions for Disaster-Displaced Persons in Southeast Asia addresses the indirect consequences of climate change by discussing durable solutions to population displacement in Southeast Asia.
Finally, Policies Tackling Climate Risks: Is ASEAN Moving to the Right Direction? turns to national and regional policies in ASEAN, discussing how they fit into the bigger picture of modern climate agreements and frameworks.
This 2nd edition of ARMOR represents a vital second step in establishing a consistent initiative in the ASEAN region. The AHA Centre recognises the many contributions from numerous individuals and organisations that made this publication possible and hopes that future editions of ARMOR will continue to prove the value of such collaborations in addressing the regional challenges of climate change.
Bridging Science and Decision Making
The ASEAN Risk Monitor and Disaster Management Review (ARMOR) is important for several reasons. Firstly, until this point there has been no authoritative publication that provides risk profile information specifically regarding the ASEAN region. Secondly, with an ever-growing body of accumulated knowledge and information on disaster in the region, there is an urgent need to provide critical analysis and synthesis that can inform policy making and disaster management operations, both within the region and outside. Finally, ARMOR will importantly become the first regular publication to showcase best practices, trends and innovations in disaster management in ASEAN.
ARMOR aims to fill these gaps. It aims to consolidate knowledge related to risk monitoring and disaster management within the ASEAN region, and seeks to provide a space for the sharing of best practices and latest research and analysis, while showcasing innovations and inspiring disaster managers and researchers across the region and the world.
To achieve this status, ARMOR will serve several functions. First, the publication will provide the most up-to-date risk profiles, data and trend analyses pertaining to natural disasters and climate risks, based on the latest monitoring and research initiatives, to inform decision making and policy development within ASEAN. Secondly, ARMOR will facilitate the sharing of best practices and lessons learnt from past operations, while also seeking to bridge the gap between research and operations within the region.
Accordingly, ARMOR supports the implementation of the ASEAN Vision 2025 on Disaster Management, by taking ownership of knowledge and ensuring application of relevant disaster management science for the region. It will also provide a platform for aspiring researchers and practitioners to contribute to this regional vision, and ensure collective efforts for ASEAN to become a pioneer in disaster management. These aims are also in line with the role of the AHA Centre as the network coordinator in developing disaster management-related standards, providing a platform for exchange of knowledge and best practices, and developing the next generation of regional disaster management leaders.
This first edition of ARMOR will cover a wide range of topics. Chapter 1 on the Trillion Dollar Multi-Hazard Risk Landscape in Southeast Asia will describe the risk profiles of each country in ASEAN. Chapter 2 on Most-at-Risk Cities in ASEAN That Must be Watched will discuss the findings from research regarding cities in ASEAN that face considerable risks of disaster. Chapter 3 on Why Climate Change Matters for ASEAN explores the potential threats that climate change will bring to the ASEAN region, particularly in terms of water, food, and health security. Chapter 4 on the State of Early Warning System in ASEAN provides a snapshot of the current early warning system within ASEAN, and how it was tested in recent disasters. Chapter 5 Natech: The Silent and Potentially Deadly Threat in ASEAN discusses the growing potential risk of Natech (technological incidence/disasters triggered by natural hazards) in the ASEAN region, and how ASEAN can work to mitigate such risks.
Chapter 6 on Application of Breaks for Additive Season and Trend (BFAST) for Drought Monitoring proposes an innovative way to accurately and immediately identify drought events, that can be utilised by policy makers to engage in early and significant interventions. Chapter 7 on Regional Knowledge Hub for Disaster Management: Strategy, Policy and Practice in ASEAN proposes options and strategies for the AHA Centre to fully realise its role as a knowledge hub for disaster management. Chapter 8 on Regional Centrality and the Shift of Humanitarian Landscape: The Case of ASEAN discusses the evolving roles of the AHA Centre by comparing two uniquely different emergency response operations – super typhoon Haiyan and the earthquake and tsunami in Central Sulawesi.
Chapter 9 on Achieving the ASEAN 2025 Vision for Disaster Management: Lessons from a Worthy Journey looks back on some of the key lessons learned from ASEAN’s experience in humanitarian assistance and disaster relief, and discusses options for ASEAN to explore and move forward. Chapter 10 on Utilisation of Space-based Information for Supporting Emergency Response and Recovery was written based on actual emergency response experiences in which space-based information was utilised alongside direct field observation to inform operational decision making.
The first step of something new is always special, but is also often the most challenging. The AHA Centre could not manage this first step without the support from numerous individuals who contributed their time and energy to ensure the launch of the first ARMOR publication. The AHA Centre is grateful for this support and contribution, and looking forward to continuing this collaboration into future editions of ARMOR.