REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the thirty-third week of 2026, a total of 17 disaster events were reported across ASEAN, including droughts, floods, landslides, storms, an earthquake, and wind-related events that affected Indonesia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported drought, storm, earthquake, and wind-related disasters in Southeast Sulawesi, West Java, North Sumatra, Southwest Aceh, and East Nusa Tenggara. In Lao PDR, the National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) reported flooding and storms in eight provinces, namely Luang Namtha, Borkeo, Xaiyaboury, Borlikhamxay, Khammouane, Savannakhet, Sekong, and Champasak. In Myanmar, the Department of Disaster Management (DDM) reported flooding in Ayeyarwady and Kayin. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported the continuing effects of the enhanced Southwest Monsoon combined with Tropical Cyclones “Luis” and KUJIRA, which caused flooding, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters in Regions I, II, III, IVA, IVB, V, VI, IX, CAR, and NCR, with impacts beginning in Week 31. In Thailand, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported flooding in Chiang Rai. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported storms and wind-related disaster in Cao Bang in Northern Viet Nam.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, a M7.7 earthquake struck East Nusa Tenggara on 15 August 2026, causing significant impacts across several districts. According to BNPB, as of 17 August 2026, the earthquake resulted in 56 fatalities and 277 injuries, including 79 seriously injured, 1 moderately injured, and 197 lightly injured. Approximately 1,528 families have been affected, with 11,675 people displaced, including 9,507 people staying in centralised evacuation sites and around 2,168 people self-evacuating. The earthquake damaged approximately 4,674 houses, including 2,806 heavily damaged, 727 moderately damaged, and 1,141 lightly damaged, as well as health, educational, government, and public facilities, roads, and bridges. 341 aftershocks, including events up to M6.2, were recorded. In response, national and local authorities have activated emergency command posts and established National Assisting Posts in Labuan Bajo and Maumere, while search and rescue, relief distribution, damage assessment, and restoration of critical infrastructure are ongoing.
The AHA Centre continues to coordinate closely with BNPB and remains ready to provide assistance should the need arise.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
During the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high seven-day average rainfall across areas north of the Equator. High average rainfall observed across western regions of the Philippines, coastal areas of Myanmar, and Lao PDR were associated with the prevailing Southwest Monsoon. As of this report, INVEST 94W and INVEST 95W located about 1,170 km east and 390 km northwest of Northern Philippines, respectively, are being monitored for potential development into tropical cyclones (PAGASA, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Nineteen (19) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Analk Krakatau (alert level III), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 2), Bulusan (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter-than-usual conditions are expected across much of the northern ASEAN region, except over parts of southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia, while drier-than-usual conditions are forecast across much of the southern ASEAN region. Warmer-than-usual temperatures are expected over much of ASEAN, except across most of Mainland Southeast Asia and the southern Maritime Continent. There is a moderate increase in the likelihood of extreme rainfall over Lao PDR and parts of northern Viet Nam, with a slight increase over parts of central and southern Myanmar, northern Thailand, and central and northern Philippines. Meanwhile, a moderate likelihood of extreme hot conditions is forecast over Sumatra, Borneo, and the Malay Peninsula, with a slight increase across southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia, northern Myanmar, southern Thailand, southern Philippines, Sulawesi, and Papua. El Niño conditions are expected to very likely become strong in August–September 2026, which is typically associated with drier-than-normal conditions across much of the Maritime Continent during this period.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); ASEAN Earthquake Information Centre (AEIC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Lao PDR: NDMO Lao PDR;
Myanmar: DDM;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
