REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the seventh week of 2025, the ASEAN region experienced 21 disasters, including volcanic activity, floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters across Indonesia and the Philippines. According to Indonesia’s Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), various provinces such as Aceh, North Sumatra, South Sumatra, West Java, Central Java, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, and South Sulawesi experienced flooding, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters. Additionally, volcanic activity was reported for Lewotobi Laki-laki Volcano in Flores Timur, East Nusa Tenggara. Meanwhile, the Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported ongoing flooding and landslides in Region VIII and MIMAROPA since the sixth week.
HIGHLIGHT:
BNPB Indonesia has reported significant flooding due to heavy rainfall across 14 sub-districts and 66 villages in Maros Regency, South Sulawesi Province. According to BNPB, approximately 185K persons have been affected and displaced by the flooding, with two fatalities and one person missing. The reported damages include 3.5K hectares of agricultural areas, roads between Makassar and Maros, and other public facilities. Relevant authorities have taken necessary actions to address the situation.
Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the NDRRMC has reported flooding and landslides since 9 February in MIMAROPA, affecting around 29.5K families (107K persons) and displacing around 12.8K people (2.8K of whom are in 27 evacuation centers). There have been six fatalities (for validation), and one person missing (for validation). The damages include 29 road sections, five bridges, and 92 houses (78 partially and 14 totally damaged). As of the report on 15 February at 1700 HRS UTC+7, three cities/municipalities in Palawan have been declared under a State of Calamity.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across the Maritime Continent, which includes Brunei, Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines. As of this report, Tropical Cyclone TALIAH are being monitored. According to the latest forecast models, TALIAH is not expected to directly affect weather conditions in ASEAN. Additionally, another weather disturbance (INVEST 93W) east of Peninsular, Malaysia, is currently being investigated for potential development into a tropical cyclone (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Following notable volcanic activity at Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki from 5-13 February, Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) has raised the Volcano Alert Level from III to IV, the highest alert level for volcanoes in Indonesia.
As of reporting, Lewotobi Laki-laki (Alert Level IV), along with Ibu (Alert Level III) and Semeru (Alert Level II) in Indonesia, have shown recent volcanic activity according to PVMBG. In the Philippines, Kanlaon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Mayon (alert level 1) volcanoes have also reported recent volcanic activity, as per PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over much of the Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall events over northern Sulawesi, the Maluku Islands, the eastern, southern, and southeastern coasts of Mainland Southeast Asia, and a moderate increase in chance over northern and central Philippines. Additionally, there is a small increase in chance of extreme hot conditions over Papua. La Niña-like conditions is now present. La Niña conditions tend to bring wetter than average conditions to much of the Maritime Continent at the seasonal timescale during the Northeast Monsoon period, and to much of the ASEAN region during the subsequent intermonsoon period.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS, DSWD;
Various news agencies.
