REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the eleventh week of 2025, the ASEAN region faced a series of 55 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, wind-related incidents, and droughts, impacting Indonesia and Thailand. According to Indonesia’s Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), these events were reported in Aceh, North Sumatra, West Sumatra, South Sumatra, Bangka Belitung, Riau, West Java, Central Java, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, East Nusa Tenggara, West Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, Gorontalo, West Sulawesi, and Central Sulawesi. In Thailand, Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported storms and wind-related incidents affecting Phetchabun, Chaiyaphum, Nong Bua Lamphu, Yasothon, Si Sa Ket, Surin, Sukhothai, Tak, Lampang, Loei, Ubon Ratchathani, Uthai Thani, Krabi, Nakhon Sawan, and Nong Khai.
HIGHLIGHT:
Indonesia continues to experience hydrometeorological disasters due to persistent heavy rainfall and river overflows. In the eleventh week of 2025, several cities and regencies have reported new incidents, as documented by BNPB. According to the reports, more than 4K families (approximately 13K persons) have been affected, with over 1.4K people displaced due to flooding, landslides, storms, and strong winds. The impacted areas include Tasikmalaya City, Tasikmalaya, Bandung Barat, Sumedang, Bandung, Cimahi, Bandung City, Cirebon, and Indramayu. The reported damages include approximately 3.8K houses, bridges, 42 roads, 18 educational facilities, 6 healthcare facilities, 23 places of worship, 27 other public facilities, and 123 hectares of agricultural areas. In response to the situation, relevant ministries and government agencies are actively engaged in emergency relief efforts, including logistical support, evacuation operations, and medical assistance. Additionally, BNPB, in collaboration with government agencies such as BPBD Jakarta and West Java, continues to implement weather modification operations to help mitigate the impact of ongoing rainfall. According to BMKG forecasts, heavy rainfall is expected to persist in Jakarta, its surrounding areas, and West Java between 11-20 March 2025, prompting continued efforts to reduce risks and support affected communities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across the Maritime Continent, which includes Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, and Malaysia. As of this report, a tropical disturbance (INVEST 91S), located approximately 630 km south-southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia, is being closely monitored and assessed for its potential development into a tropical cyclone (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), and Thai Meterological Department (TMD). Mount Ibu (alert level III), Dukono (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), Raung (alert levelII), Semeru (alert level II), and Marapi (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Mayon (alert level 1) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are expected across much of the Maritime Continent in the coming week, while drier conditions are forecasted over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. Additionally, cooler-than-usual temperatures are anticipated over central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, as well as much of the Malay Peninsula, whereas warmer conditions are predicted in parts of the eastern equatorial region. For the regional assessment of extreme weather events, there is a moderate increase in chance of very heavy rainfall occurring in the central Philippines and the southern Malay Peninsula, and a small increase in chance over the Maluku Islands, Nusa Tenggara Islands, and northern coastal areas of Borneo. Furthermore, there is a small increase in chance of extreme heat conditions in parts of Sulawesi and Papua. La Niña conditions are now present. La Niña conditions tend to bring wetter than average conditions to much of the ASEAN region during the intermonsoon period.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD
Various news agencies.
