REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the forty-sixth week of 2025, a total of 49 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related incidents affecting Indonesia and Viet Nam. In Thailand, flooding that began in Week 47 across 19 provinces continued to be reported by Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM). Meanwhile, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) in the Philippines continued to report ongoing disaster situations associated with Tropical Cyclones KALMAEGI and FUNG-WONG. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) recorded multiple events across several provinces, including Aceh, West Java, Central Java, East Java, South Kalimantan, Central Kalimantan, North Kalimantan, Lampung, Maluku, West Nusa Tenggara, Central Sulawesi, North Sulawesi, and North Sumatra. In Viet Nam, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported flooding and landslides in Ho Chi Minh City, Da Nang, Khanh Hoa, Quang Tri, and Hue.
HIGHLIGHT:
NDRRMC continues to report the impacts of Tropical Cyclones KALMAEGI and FUNG-WONG, which have affected the Philippines since Week 45. As of 17 November at 0500H UTC+7, casualties from KALMAEGI have increased to 250 deaths, 502 injuries, and 111 missing. Approximately 5.18M people (1.45M families) have been affected across Regions V, VI, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, NIR, VII, VIII, X, and CARAGA, with 225K people displaced in 637 evacuation centres and 147K people displaced outside evacuation centres. A total of 217 road sections (60 still not passable) and 21 bridges (7 still not passable) have been affected, along with 265K damaged houses (228K partially damaged and 37K totally damaged). Meanwhile, as of 17 November at 0500H UTC+7, the impacts of Tropical Cyclone FUNG-WONG have risen to 26 deaths, 47 injuries, and 2 missing, with 6.89M people (1.95M families) affected across Regions I, II, CAR, III, NCR, CALABARZON, MIMAROPA, V, VI, NIR, VIII, IX, X, XII, CARAGA, and BARMM. A total of 394K people have been displaced in 5,092 evacuation centres, while 143K people remain displaced outside evacuation centres. Additionally, 785 road sections (165 still not passable) and 74 bridges (27 still not passable) have been affected, along with 266K damaged houses (240K partially damaged and 26K totally damaged).
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall over Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste, and Viet Nam. An area of convection (INVEST 97S) has also persisted south of the ASEAN region, located approximately 410 km southeast of Dili, Timor-Leste. Forecast models are in fair agreement that INVEST 97S will continue to develop over the next 1 to 2 days while tracking slowly east-northeastward. In the following 48–72 hours, it is expected to strengthen and shift its movement toward the southeast (BMKG, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level II) and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over much of the southern and southeastern Maritime Continent, as well as over southern and southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia; and warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over parts of the western and central equatorial region as well as over parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall conditions over central and southern Viet Nam, southern Lao PDR, southern Cambodia, southern Thailand, parts of Sulawesi and Nusa Tenggara islands; and there is a small increase in chance of extreme hot conditions over parts of the equatorial region. A negative IOD is currently present. La Niña conditions are predicted for October – December 2025.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
