REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the forty-sixth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experience 26 significant disasters, including droughts, floods, landslides, storms, and winds-related events. Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam were affected by these disasters. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported drought, flooding, storms, and wind-related events in Aceh, West Java, Central Java, East Java, East Kalimantan, West Nusa Tenggara, West Sulawesi, South Sulawesi, West Sumatra, and North Sumatra. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported that since the beginning of week 46, Tropical Cyclones TORAJI, USAGI, and MAN-YI have affecting Region 1, 2, 3, 5, MIMAROPA, and CAR. Meanwhile, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) in Thailand reported flooding in Yala. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) also reported storms and winds in Quang Ngai.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to PAGASA, Tropical Cyclones TORAJI (local name Nika), USAGI (local name Ofel), and MAN-YI (local name Pepito) have been impacting the Philippines since the beginning of Week 46. TORAJI made its initial landfall on 11 Nov, USAGI on 14 Nov, and MAN-YI on 17 Nov. As of 18 November at 0000 HRS UTC+7, MAN-YI has exited the Luzon landmass and left the Philippine Area of Responsibility around 1500 HRS UTC+7 on the same day. According to NDRRMC, as of 18 Nov at 0700 HRS UTC+7, a total of 11 cities and municipalities have declared a state of calamity, with 8 in Region 2, 1 in Region 3, and 2 in CAR. The impact of these cyclones has affected approximately 295.6K families (about 1.15 million people) across Regions 1, 2, 3, 5, MIMAROPA, and CAR. Currently, around 685K individuals remain internally displaced, with 104.8K families (approximately 446.2K people) inside 2,717 evacuation centers. The disasters have resulted in significant damage, with 7,838 houses affected—437 of which were totally damaged. Additionally, 272 road sections and 101 bridges have been impacted. The estimated damages amount to approximately 8.15M USD, encompassing losses in housing, agriculture, livestock, poultry, fisheries, infrastructure, and other assets. Assistance totaling around 547K USD has been provided to the affected communities by DSWD, LGUs, OCD, NGOs, and other partners.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has shown a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across the Philippine Sea, extending to the Visayas and Luzon. This rainfall is associated with the development of Tropical Cyclones TORAJI, USAGI, and MAN-YI. Significant rainfall has also been recorded in Indonesia, Malaysia, southern and central Thailand, and central Viet Nam. As of this reporting period, Tropical Cyclone MAN-YI is located outside the Philippine Area of Responsibility and is forecasted to continue moving westward or west-southwestward. It is expected to weaken further and may become a remnant low by 20 Nov over the Viet Nam East Sea (JTWC, PAGASA, NCHMF).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Eight (8) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Currently, Mount Lewotobi Laki-laki remains at alert level IV, the highest alert level for volcanoes in Indonesia, and continues to erupt (PVMBG). Additionally, Mount Ibu (alert level III) and Semeru (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over the southern Maritime Continent and parts of southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia; and warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent, apart from the southern region, and southern coastal parts of Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance for very heavy rainfall event to occurs over northern Viet Nam; and small increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occurs over parts of the equatorial region, the Philippines, the equatorial region, northern Laos, and Viet Nam. La Niña conditions developing, with La Niña conditions likely during November 2024 – February 2025.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF;
Various news agencies.
