REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the thirty-third week of 2024, the ASEAN region faced 11 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, and drought. Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam were affected by these disasters. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported flooding in Aceh, East Kalimantan, West Sulawesi, North Sulawesi, and Southwest Papua, as well as drought in West Java. Meanwhile, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) in Thailand reported flooding over Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Nan, Phayao, Rayong, and Phuket. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) recorded storms, flooding, and landslides in Dien Bien, Tuyen Quang, Yen Bai, and Cao Bang.
HIGHLIGHT:
From 16-18 August, the Southwest Monsoon caused floods and flash floods in six provinces of Thailand, including Chiang Rai, Chiang Mai, Nan, Phayao, Rayong, Phuket. According to the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM), these events have affected more than 2.58K families or around 12K persons. As of 19 August at 0600 HRS UTC+7, the flooding situation still persist in two provinces (Phayao and Chiang Rai) and have affected more than 1.07K families. Meanwhile in Indonesia, prolonged heavy rainfall caused flooding situations in Sorong (Southwest Papua) since 13 August. According to Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB), as of 14 August at 1900 HRS UTC+7 impact and damages reports are as follows: 3K families affected, and 3K houses, 1 bridge, and agriculture areas. Relevant government authorities have carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (Northern Sumatra, Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua), Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. As of reporting, Tropical Cyclone JONGDARI (Dindo) was estimated based on all available data at 670 km northeast of Itabayat, Batanes (outside Philippines Area of Responsibility). JONGDARI is forecast to move over the Sea towards the Korean Peninsula and is unlikely to directly affect the weather condition in ASEAN (PAGASA, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over much of the equatorial region; drier conditions are predicted to persist over the southern Maritime Continent; and warmer than usual temperature is predicted over much of central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a moderate increase in chance over central and eastern parts of the equatorial region, and small increase in chance over central Myanmar, western Maritime Continent for very heavy rainfall conditions; and there is a moderate increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occur over Parts of central and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia, and the northern Philippines. La Niña conditions are expected to develop during August-September 2024 (ASMC).
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
