REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the third week of 2026, a total of 35 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters affecting Indonesia and the Philippines. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported incidents across Banten, West Java, Central Java, East Java, West Nusa Tenggara, North Sulawesi, South Sumatra, and North Sumatra. In the Philippines, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported impacts from Tropical Cyclone NOKAEN which caused flooding, landslides, storms, and strong winds in Regions V (Bicol), VIII (Eastern Visayas), and XIII (CARAGA).
HIGHLIGHT:
In the Philippines, from 15 Jan 2026, Tropical Cyclone NOKAEN (locally named “Ada”) brought moderate to very heavy rainfall, accompanied by thunderstorms and strong winds, affecting the Bicol, Eastern Visayas, and CARAGA Regions. As of 19 Jan at 0700H (UTC+7), the NDRRMC reported flooding in 187 areas, along with several rain-induced landslides and rockfall incidents. These events resulted in two reported fatalities (for validation) and two injuries (for validation), with approximately 33.1K people displaced, about half of whom were accommodated in 273 evacuation centres. In total, around 260.6K people were affected across seven provinces. Reported damages include three houses (two totally damaged), 80 road sections, and three bridges. Authorities continue to provide immediate assistance to affected communities, while damage assessments and data collection remain ongoing
The AHA Centre continues to closely monitor the situation and remains ready to provide assistance should the need arise
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across southern Indonesia, the Philippines, and Timor-Leste. The high rainfall observation over the Philippines and the Philippine Sea is brought by the effects of Tropical Cyclone NOKAEN, while above average rainfall in southern Indonesia. As of the reporting period, Tropical Cyclone NOKAEN is being monitored as a tropical depression over the Philippine Sea, while INVEST 97S over the Timor Sea has a low potential of developing into a tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours. (BMKG, PAGASA).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Seven (7) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH) of Myanmar, the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), and the Thailand Meteorological Department (TMD). Mount Ili Lewotolok (alert level III), Semeru (alert level III), Marapi (alert level II), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 2), Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 3), and Bulusan (alert level 1) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier conditions are forecast over the equatorial region, with warmer-than-usual temperatures expected across parts of the central and eastern Maritime Continent and cooler-than-usual conditions over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the northeastern Maritime Continent. The outlook initialised on 16 Jan 2026 indicates no notable increase in the likelihood of very heavy rainfall in the coming week, but a moderate increase in the chance of extreme warm temperatures over the central and eastern Maritime Continent, including southern half of Borneo, Sulawesi, western parts of Papua, the southern Philippines, and the Maluku Islands. La Niña conditions are present and are predicted to weaken in February-March 2026. The typical impact of La Niña on Southeast Asia is wetter-than-average rainfall conditions, including for much of the Maritime Continent during December to February.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Myanmar: DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS, PAGASA;
Thailand: TMD;
Various news agencies.
