REGIONAL SUMMARY:
In the twentieth week of 2025, the ASEAN region experienced a total of 44 significant disasters, including floods, landslides, and wind-related disasters, which affected Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported impacts of these events in East Java, East Kalimantan, North Sumatra, South Sulawesi, West Sulawesi, East Nusa Tenggara, Banten, North Kalimantan, Central Java, West Java, Jakarta, West Papua, and North Maluku. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) recorded flooding and landslides in Northern Mindanao, BARMM, and Region XII. Meanwhile, Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported flooding in Ban Rai, Uthai Thani.
HIGHLIGHT:
In the Philippines, the Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) brought heavy rainfall over the southern parts of the country. According to the NDRRMC, several provinces in Mindanao experienced widespread flooding and rain-induced landslides on 15 May 2025. These events resulted to one death and affected 79.6K people (39.9K families) in Lanao del Norte, Misamis Oriental, Maguindanao del Sur, and Cotabato. In addition, the widespread flooding displaced 78.2K people in Maguindanao del Sur. Reported damages include 35 houses, of which 20 houses were totally damaged. Concerned authorities immediately responded and implemented necessary measures to manage the situation and provide assistance to affected communities.
Additionally, updated impact information on the M7.7 Mandalay Earthquake in Myanmar, based on DDM Myanmar report as of 18 May at 18:30 hrs utc+7, indicates that a total of 3,727 fatalities have been recorded, with 81 individuals missing and 5,104 others injured. Approximately 507,989 people have been affected, including 28.5K displaced persons currently residing in 106 evacuation centres, and 266.2K individuals who have sought shelter with relatives. Reported damages include the approximately 11.6K houses (totally damaged) and over 39.6K houses (partially damaged), 2,597 schools, 753 hospitals, 10,613 offices and other buildings, as well as over 100 bridges and 412 roads. The estimated economic losses are approximately USD 1.7 billion. Data collection and validation are ongoing.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (Sumatra, Java, Kalimantan, Maluku, Sulawesi, and Papua), Lao PDR, Malaysia, central to southern Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Viet Nam. As of this reporting period, there is no active tropical cyclone warning being monitored in the region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Five (5) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH), and Thailand Meterological Department (TMD), and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Ibu (alert level II), Dukono (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level IV), Semeru (alert level II), Raung (alert level II), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), and Marapi (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Kanlaon (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 1), and Bulusan (alert level 1) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, warmer than usual temperatures are predicted over parts of the central and western Maritime Continent. There is a small increase in chance of extreme hot conditions predicted over much of Sumatra, particularly in the north and south. Based on the ASEANCOF-24 consensus outlook, ENSO neutral conditions are now present. However, the La Niña conditions earlier in the year may still have a moderating effect on temperatures in Southeast Asia.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Myanmar: DDM, DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Various news agencies.
