REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the twenty-ninth week of 2026, a total of 18 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including droughts, floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters in Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. In Indonesia, the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported drought in Central Java, West Java, Banten, and West Nusa Tenggara, and floods in Northern Sumatra and West Sumatra. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported floods, landslides, and storms in Regions IX and XII. In Thailand, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported flooding in Chiang Rai. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported storms, wind-related disasters, flooding, and landslides in Lai Chau, Dien Bien, Lao Cai, Son La, and Ca Mau.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Viet Nam, widespread flooding, flash floods, and landslides occurred following days of heavy rainfall, with the most severe impacts reported in the northern provinces of Lai Chau, Lao Cai, Dien Bien, and Son La. According to VDDMA, as of 19 July, authorities reported 5 fatalities, 3 missing persons, and 10 injuries. Approximately 761 houses were affected, including 36 destroyed, 391 damaged, 140 requiring emergency relocation, and 194 impacted by flooding and landslides. The disaster also damaged about 707 ha of rice and other crops, killed or swept away 250 livestock and poultry, and triggered numerous landslides that disrupted major national and provincial roads, affecting transportation across the region. The total estimated economic loss has reached approximately VND 362.5B (about USD 13.8M). Authorities continue search and rescue operations, deliver relief assistance, clear landslide debris, and restore access to affected communities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high seven-day average rainfall across Cambodia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. High rainfall intensity concentrated across the western section of the Philippines is consistent with the prevalence of the Southwest Monsoon. Conversely, lighter precipitation and generally drier conditions were observed across the southern Maritime Continent. As of this report, there is no low pressure area is being monitored for possible tropical cyclone formation in the region (PAGASA, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), Dukono (alert level II), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 3), Bulusan (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), in the coming week, drier-than-usual conditions are expected across much of the equatorial region and parts of the southwestern Maritime Continent. Warmer-than-usual temperatures are forecast across much of the western and central Maritime Continent, most of southern Mainland Southeast Asia, and parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent. There is also a slight increase in the likelihood of extreme rainfall over western Myanmar, the southwestern Philippines, and southwestern Timor Island. Meanwhile, extreme heat conditions are expected to be likely over southern Sumatra and western Cambodia, with a moderate likelihood extending across the southern half of Thailand, the rest of Cambodia, southwestern Borneo, and southern Sulawesi. A slight increase in the likelihood of extreme hot conditions is also forecast over Papua, northern Sumatra, southern Borneo, the northern Philippines, and much of southern Mainland Southeast Asia. El Niño conditions are expected to persist throughout the second half of 2026, with models indicating a high likelihood of strong conditions from August to September. These conditions are typically associated with drier-than-normal weather across much of the Maritime Continent.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); ASEAN Earthquake Information Centre (AEIC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS, PAGASA;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
