REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the forty-second week of 2024, the ASEAN region experience 24 significant disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, wind-related events, and volcanic activity. Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, and Viet Nam were affected by these disasters. Additionally, the impacts of Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone YAGI are still being reported in Thailand. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported flooding, storms, and wind-related events in West Kalimantan, Aceh, Central Java, North Sumatra, Sukabumi, and Central Kalimantan, while volcanic activity related disasters were reported in East Nusa Tenggara. In Malaysia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Selangor and Melaka. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) has reported the flooding, storms, and landslides in Bukidnon, Region XII, BARMM, and Oriental Mindoro. Meanwhile, according to Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) Southwest Monsoon and YAGI in Thailand has impacted 47 provinces since week 33 of 2024. Lastly, Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) also reported floods and landslides in Yen Bai, Lao Cai, Binh Thuan, and An Giang.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, heavy rainfall resulted to overflowing of the rivers in the northern provinces of Sumatra. Consequently, widespread flooding have been reported in the provinces of Aceh, North Sumatra, and Riau. According to BNPB, the flooding have affected a total of 34K persons, and damaged about 5K houses, 11 schools, 4 worship places, and 307 hectares of crops.
Meanwhile, in Thailand, the DDPM has reported that the widespread flooding and landslides caused by the Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone YAGI since week 33 of 2024 have expanded to 47 provinces. These events have affected 256.4K households, with 57 fatalities and 28 injuries. As of 20 October, flooding persists in a total of 5 provinces, (Lamphun, Uthai Thani, Suphan Buri, Phra Nakhon Si Ayutthaya and Nakhon Pathom). A total of 13 districts, 136 sub-districts, 757 villages, and 31,550 households remain affected. Relevant government authorities have carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (Sumatra, Central Java, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua), Lao PDR (northern and southern), Malaysia, Myanmar (northern, central, and lower parts), Philippines, Thailand (northern, central, southern), and Viet Nam (central and southern). As of this reporting period, two Tropical Disturbances (Tropical Depression 22W with local name KRISTINE in the Philippines, and INVEST 97W) are being monitored over the West Pacific Ocean, TD 22W is expected to develop intensify further as it approaches the northern Philippines landmass in the coming days. Meanwhile, Tropical Disturbance INVEST 98B is also being monitored over the Indian Ocean for its potential for development into a significant tropical cyclone. (DMH Myanmar, PAGASA, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
One (1) significant earthquake (M>5.0) was recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over the northeastern Maritime Continent, while drier conditions are predicted over most of the southern ASEAN region. Warmer than usual temperature is also predicted over most of the southern ASEAN region. There is a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall over southern Mainland Southeast Asia (southern Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, southern Viet Nam) and the Philippines. There is a moderate increase in chance of extreme hot conditions over much of the equatorial region and a small increase over parts of the Philippines and southern Maritime Continent La Niña conditions are likely from October – November 2024 onwards.
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Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Myanmar: DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.