REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the thirty-eighth week of 2026, a total of thirteen disaster events were reported across ASEAN, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters. In Indonesia, the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported floods and landslides in North Sumatra, West Sumatra, and Aceh. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported disaster impacts in Perak and Kuala Lumpur. In the Philippines, flooding and storms affected Nueva Ecija in Region III as reported by the Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) as part of the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC). In Thailand, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported flooding across Chiang Rai, Mae Hong Son, Chiang Mai, Lampang, Phrae, Tak, Phetchabun, Phitsanulok, Nakhon Sawan, Suphan Buri, Saraburi, Chanthaburi, Rayong, Chumphon, Ranong, Surat Thani, Krabi, Phang Nga, and Satun. Finally, in Viet Nam, floods and landslides affected Lao Cai, Phu Tho, Hanoi, Ninh Binh, Thanh Hoa, and Nghe An as reported by the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA).
HIGHLIGHT:
In Viet Nam, heavy rainfall and flooding affected several northern and central provinces, including Lao Cai, Phu Tho, Ha Noi, Ninh Binh, Thanh Hoa, and Nghe An. As of 21 September, the events resulted in 3 fatalities and damaged 119 houses including 8 collapsed houses, while approximately 5K houses remained inundated, although floodwaters had largely receded. The flooding also affected 31 schools, approximately 23.9K ha of rice and other crops, 3.9K ha of other agricultural land, 4.8K ha of aquaculture areas, and resulted in the loss of 294 livestock and 58.6K poultry. Six incidents were reported along dykes in Ha Noi, Ninh Binh, and Thanh Hoa, while landslides and flooding continued to disrupt road access in Thanh Hoa and Nghe An. In response, authorities evacuated more than 5K households (17.6K people) to safer locations, reinforced affected dyke sections, maintained 24-hour monitoring, and continued flood response and recovery operations, including drainage, road clearance, and support to affected communities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
During the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high seven-day average rainfall across Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (Sumatra, northern parts of Kalimantan), Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. As of this report, INVEST 91W, located approximately 1,960 km east of the Philippines, is being monitored for potential development into a significant tropical cyclone (PAGASA).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Ibu (alert level II), Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), and Semeru (alert level III), in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 2), Bulusan (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier-than-usual conditions are expected across most of the southern ASEAN region, while warmer-than-usual conditions are forecast across most of ASEAN. The increased likelihood of extreme temperatures is expected to persist, with the highest likelihood of extreme hot conditions over southern Borneo. A moderate increase in the likelihood of extreme hot conditions is forecast across the central, western, and eastern Maritime Continent, as well as parts of northern Mainland Southeast Asia, with a slight increase across much of central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia. El Niño conditions are expected to persist, with strong El Niño conditions forecast until at least the end of 2026. During this period, El Niño typically brings drier conditions across much of the Maritime Continent and, to a lesser extent, parts of Mainland Southeast Asia.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); ASEAN Earthquake Information Centre (AEIC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
