REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the twenty-ninth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experienced 16 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related disasters. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Thailand were reportedly affected by these disasters. According to the Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia, flooding, storms, and wind-related disasters were reported in South Sulawesi, Aceh, East Kalimantan, and North Maluku. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported flooding, landslides, and storms in 9 regions namely MIMAROPA, Region VI, VII, VIII, IX, X, XI, XII, CARAGA, and BARMM as the combined effects of the Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone GEAMI which started from Week 28. Meanwhile, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) Thailand flooding events in Trat, Maha Sarakham, Phetchabun, and 9 provinces in the Northern and Northeastern Regions.
HIGHLIGHT:
In the Philippines, according to PAGASA, the two tropical disturbances TC Butchoy (now with international name PRAPIROON) and TC GAEMI which both developed into significant tropical cyclones within the Philippine Area of Responsibility this week, have been enhancing the effects of the Southwest Monsoon, bringing with it prolonged heavy to intense rainfall. In Week 28, the NDRRMC has reported about 60.8K families affected and 51.6K families displaced by the floods, flashfloods, and landslides that resulted from the persistent heavy rainfall brought by the Southwest Monsoon over the western and central provinces of Mindanao. The development of TC PRAPIROON from INVEST 91W to TD 04W as it traversed the central provinces of the Philippines towards the West Philippine Sea, contributed more rainfall over these parts. Meanwhile, the development of TC GAEMI over the Philippine Sea, further enhanced the Southwest Monsoon. While TC GAEMI is not forecast to cross any major landmass in the Philippines, the extent of the tropical cyclone winds have reached the northeastern and extreme northern provinces of Luzon where Tropical Cyclone Signal No. 1 is currently raised. Furthermore, under the influence of TC GAEMI, the enhanced Southwest Monsoon has already caused flooding and landslide events over Visayas and Southern Luzon. As of this reporting period, the NDRRMC has reported about 853K persons affected, 582K displacements, 8 fatalities, 2 injuries, 1 missing person, and 149 damaged houses in 9 affected regions in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao. As of reporting, the NDRRMCOC has raised its alert level from Blue to Red for the combined effects of Southwest Monsoon and TC GAEMI. National, regional, and local disaster management authorities, as well as relevant agencies have carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
Meanwhile, Viet Nam’s National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting (NHCMF), is currently monitoring TC PRAPIROON in the northern sea area of ??the Gulf of Tonkin, about 130km East Southeast of Quang Ninh-Hai Phong. Ministries and their branches have issued telegrams directing their affiliated units to proactively respond to the tropical depression in the East Sea. Official dispatches have been issued by authorities of the provinces/cities of Quang Binh, Quang Tri, Da Nang, Quang Nam, Quang Ngai and Binh Dinh on ensuring safety for fishermen and fishing vessels operating in dangerous areas. (VDDMA, VNDMS)
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across most of ASEAN Region north of the equator, including Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (northeast parts of Kalimantan, northern parts of Sulawesi and Maluku, and Papua), Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore. Thailand, and Viet Nam. These medium to high rainfall areas were influenced by Tropical Cyclone PRAPIROON which traversed from the Pacific across the Philippines and tracked northwestward over the Viet Nam East Sea towards northern Viet Nam (NHCMF). Meanwhile, at 1600H UTC+7 today, PAGASA announced that Tropical Cyclone GAEMI has intensified into a typhoon as it continues to track slowly over the Philippine Sea in a north-northeastward direction. These tropical disturbances have been enhancing the Southwest Monsoon resulting to moderate to intense rainfall over most of the Philippines. At 2200H UTC+7, the centre of Typhoon GAEMI was estimated based on all available data 375 km East Northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan (18.5 °N, 125.2 °E ), with maximum sustained winds of 130 km/h near the center and gustiness of up to 160 km/h (PAGASA). .
GEOPHYSICAL:
Three (3) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), wetter conditions are predicted over most of northern Mainland Southeast Asia. Elsewhere, drier conditions are predicted over much of the equatorial region. Warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the Maritime Continent and parts of southern and eastern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, according to the ASMC, there is a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall over parts of central Myanmar and northern Philippines. There is an increase in chance of extreme hot conditions with very likely likelihood over the western and central Maritime Continent. There is also a moderate increase in chance of extreme hot conditions over parts of northern Mainland Southeast Asia as well as over central and southern Philippines. The ENSO state is now in neutral conditions.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCHMF, VNDMS;
Various news agencies.
