REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the twentieth week of 2023, a total of 5 disasters (floods, landslides, and wind-related) affected regions in Indonesia and Myanmar. Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported floods caused by moderate to heavy rainfall and landslides due to unstable soil conditions in North Sumatra, Central Java, West and South Sulawesi.
HIGHLIGHT:
On 16 May, BNPB reported that the flooding in Pekalongan City and Demak Regency has resulted in 18K families (63K persons) and 10.3K houses affected. Local disaster management agencies have carried out necessary actions, continue to monitor, and assess the situation.
Over the course of the aftermath of Tropical Cyclone MOCHA, significant damages have been reported to be mainly sustained by houses and infrastructures. In response to the series of rapid intensifications and predicted severe damages by the cyclone, pre-emptive evacuation was conducted. As a testament to its intensity and nature, cyclone-associated severe winds and rainfall resulted in widespread damages and flooding and internal displacement of a significant number of populations from areas along its path and even in areas hundreds of kilometres away. Latest confirmed casualties have reached more than a hundred and damage and loss data have increased substantially in terms of buildings (reaching multiple hundred thousand), and livestock. Estimated damage and loss costs have reached more than a million US Dollars according to reports from authorities. Details are available in the AHA Centre Situation Update.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Sumatra, North Kalimantan, and Papua in Indonesia; Peninsular Malaysia: and North of The Philippines. According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC), currently, there are two active tropical cyclone advisories for the region. As of reporting, Tropical Cyclone FABIEN has run its course and has weakened considerably, as the remnants of the system migrates to the south. Another tropical cyclone, being referred to as TY 02W (MAWAR), is forecasted to move westward towards the Philippines.
GEOPHYSICAL:
One (1) significant earthquakes (M?5.0) was recorded by Thailand’s Meteorological Department (TMD). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Mount Ili Lewotolok (alert level II), and Mount Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week drier conditions are predicted over most of the central Maritime Continent. Drier conditions are also predicted over much of Mainland Southeast Asia. Warmer than usual conditions are expected over much of Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of the western Maritime Continent. Wetter conditions are predicted over most parts of the Philippines. There is a moderate increase in chance of very heavy rainfall over central and northern Philippines. There is a small increase in chance of extreme hot conditions in the parts of the eastern Maritime Continent.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Thailand: DDPM;
Various news agencies.
