REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the eighth week of 2026, a total of 27 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including droughts, floods, landslides, storms, and strong winds in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, as well as Kanlaon volcanic activity. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported incidents across West Java, Central Java, East Java, West Kalimantan, West Nusa Tenggara, North Sumatra, and Yogyakarta. In Malaysia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding situations in Sabah and Sarawak. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) reported flooding incidents in Regions XI, XII, and CARAGA, as well as volcanic activity at Kanlaon Volcano in NIR. In Thailand, Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported storms and strong winds in Nan, Phayao, Chiang Mai, and Mae Hong Son. In addition, Civil Protection Authority (CPA) of Timor-Leste reported flooding in Dili, with data collection on impacts and damages currently ongoing.
HIGHLIGHT:
In the Philippines, continuous moderate to heavy rainfall associated with a shear line caused flooding in several parts of the Davao Region on 19 February 2026. The same weather system continued to bring significant rainfall on 20 February 2026, resulting in further flooding, triggering landslides, and forcing the evacuation of residents in several areas of the CARAGA Region (PAGASA, DSWD). As a result of these conditions, according to DSWD, as of 23 February 2026 at 0500H UTC+7, around 197.8K families (740.7K persons) have been affected across 469 barangays in Regions XI and CARAGA, with around 27K families (10K persons) are currently taking temporary shelter in 74 evacuation centres. In terms of damages, reports indicate that 80 houses were damaged, including 27 totally damaged and 53 partially damaged houses. Relevant authorities have undertaken the necessary response actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Brunei Darussalam, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Timor-Leste. As of this reporting, tropical disturbance INVEST 91B, is currently under monitoring for its potential development over the Bay of Bengal (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Six (6) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and Jabatan Meteorologi Malaysia (JMM). Among them, a M6.8 earthquake with a depth of 678 km and an epicentre located in the waters off Kota Kinabalu, Sabah, Malaysia, was reported by JMM on 22 February at 1157H UTC+7, reported by AEIC with a magnitude of 7.0 and a depth of 630 km. As of this reporting, no significant impacts or damages have been reported from the earthquake. Mount Marapi (alert level II), Semeru (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 3), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over parts of the northeastern Maritime Continent; and drier than usual conditions are predicted over much of the western and central equatorial region. For the regional assessment of extremes, a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall is predicted over parts of northeastern Borneo; and a small increase in chance of extreme hot conditions is predicted for parts of the equatorial region, in particular parts of Peninsular Malaysia, central Sumatra, Sulawesi, southern Philippines and the Maluku Islands. La Niña conditions are predicted to weaken in February 2026 and transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in March 2026. Models predict the ENSO-neutral conditions to persist at least until May 2026, with either ENSO-neutral continuing or El Niño conditions developing in June-July 2026.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); ASEAN Earthquake Information Centre (AEIC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA, JMM;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS, DSWD;
Thailand: DDPM;
Timor-Leste: CPA;
Various news agencies.
