REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the twelfth week of 2026, a total of 27 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including floods, storms, and wind-related disasters in Indonesia, Thailand, and Viet Nam. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported incidents across East Java, East Nusa Tenggara, North Sulawesi, West Java, North Kalimantan, North Maluku, Riau, West Nusa Tenggara, and Maluku. In Thailand, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported storms and strong winds in Ratchaburi, Nong Bua Lamphu, Kalasin, Tak, Nakhon Phanom, Amnat Charoen, and Chaiyaphum. Likewise, in Viet Nam, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) also reported storms and wind-related disasters that affected Lai Chau, Lao Cai, and Dien Bien.
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, persistent heavy rainfall caused major rivers to overflow and triggered flooding in Malinau Regency. According to BNPB, floods combined with debris affected approximately 5K families (about 43K people) across 13 villages in five sub-districts. The floods impacted around 5K houses, at least 23 education facilities, and government offices, disrupting local services and livelihoods. Authorities conducted rapid assessments, coordinated response efforts, and provided immediate assistance to affected communities. According to the latest update from BNPB, floodwaters have receded and residents have since returned to their normal activities.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Indonesia, Myanmar (northern and eastern areas), and Timor-Leste. The high rainfall accumulation in eastern portions of Indonesia reflected the development of Tropical Cyclone NARELLE. As of this report, the remnant low-pressure system of TC NARELLE is being monitored over northwestern Australia. It is forecast to move southwestward, with a high likelihood of re-developing into a tropical cyclone over the Indian Ocean (BMKG).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Two (2) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level II), and Marapi (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Taal (alert level 1), Bulusan (alert level 1) Mayon (alert level 3), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, drier-than-usual conditions are expected across southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia and the northeastern Maritime Continent, with drier conditions also persisting over parts of the western and central equatorial region. Warmer than usual temperatures are forecast over parts of the western Maritime Continent. The likelihood of very heavy rainfall across the region remains low, and there is a slight increase in chance of extreme heat over parts of the Malay Peninsula, central Sumatra, western Kalimantan, and the northern tip of Myanmar. Meanwhile, La Niña conditions are expected to continue to weaken and are expected to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in March 2026. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) has remained above the positive threshold since February 2026.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Disaster Information Network (ADINet); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); ASEAN Earthquake Information Centre (AEIC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
