REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the thirty-eighth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experience 22 significant disasters, including floods, storms, strong winds, drought, earthquake, and the impacts of tropical cyclone SOULIK. Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Viet Nam were affected by these disasters. Additionally, the impacts of Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone YAGI are still being reported in Lao PDR, Myanmar, Thailand, and Viet Nam, while the Philippines are currently responding to the impacts of Southwest Monsoon and TCs BEBINCA, SOULIK, PULASAN. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported flooding storms, and wind-related disasters in Aceh, North Sumatra, Riau Islands, East Nusa Tenggara, and Central Sulawesi, while droughts were reported in Yogyakarta and Bali, and M4.9 were reported in Bandung and M5.6 Earthquake were reported in North Maluku. In Malaysia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding events in Perlis, Pulau Pinang, Selangor, Kedah, and Perak. Meanwhile, in addition to the impacts of Southwest Monsoon and YAGI in Thailand, Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) also reported storms and strong winds in Krabi. Lastly, Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) also reported the impacts of Tropical Cyclone SOULIK in Viet Nam.
HIGHLIGHT:
As of 23 September, the AHA Centre maintains the EOC alert level at RED Alert to support ongoing emergency response operations led by NDMO in Lao PDR, DDM in Myanmar, NDRRMC in the Philippines, DDPM Thailand, and VDDMA in Viet Nam for the impacts of Southwest Monsoon and Tropical Cyclone YAGI. As of 23 Sep, in Lao PDR, YAGI and Southwest Monsoon have impacted 1,208 villages across 106 districts in 15 provinces. According to the NDMO Lao PDR, these events have resulted in eight fatalities and affected approximately 76.1K families (185.8K people). In Myanmar, as of 23 Sep, DDM reports that YAGI and Southwest Monsoon have affected approximately 569.3K individuals, resulting in 328 fatalities and 86 people missing. In Thailand, the DDPM has reported that around 160.7K households have been affected across 33 provinces, with 46 fatalities. In Viet Nam, as of 23 Sep, VDDMA has reported that 333 individuals are either dead or missing across the Northern Region. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the NDRRMC is currently responding to the effects of the Southwest Monsoon and multiple tropical cyclones, including BEBINCA (local name Ferdie), INVEST 98W (local name Gener), Tropical Cyclone PULASAN (local name Helen), and INVEST 90W (local name Igme). As of 23 Sep, NDRRMC reported that a total of 387.8K families or 1.45M persons have been affected, with 47.9K persons displaced, 25 fatalities, 13 injuries, and eight individuals missing. For detailed information on Tropical Cyclone YAGI, please refer to the AHA Centre Situation Update.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across most of mainland Southeast Asia including Cambodia, Mao PDR, Thailand, Myanmar, and Viet Nam. Additionally, medium to high 7-day average rainfall also shows in Luzon, Malaysia (Peninsular, Sabah, Serawak, Northern Sumatra, Kalimantan, Maluku, and Papua. As of this reporting period, Tropical Disturbances INVEST 93W over Viet Nam East Sea and INVEST 91W over West Pacific Ocean under monitoring for its potential for the development into a significant tropical cyclone (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG). Mount Semeru (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over much of the Maritime Continent, with the highest likelihood over the western half of the region; and warmer than usual temperature is predicted over southern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall over parts of central and southern Maritime Continent; and small increase in chance of extreme hot conditions over southern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia and parts of Maritime Continent. La Niña conditions are predicted to develop during September – October 2024.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Lao PDR: NDMO, DMH;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Myanmar: DDM, DMH;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM, TMD;
Viet Nam: VDDMA, NCMHF;
Various news agencies.