REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the twenty-ninth week of 2023, a total of 20 disasters (floods, landslides, storms, winds, and drought) affected the region. Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam have reportedly been affected. Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported floods and landslides in West Kalimantan, East Kalimantan, Papua, Central Sulawesi, and West Sumatra; and Drought in West Java and East Java. The Philippines’ National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported flooding, landslides, storms, and winds caused by Tropical Cyclone DOKSURI. Thailand’s Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported floods and landslides in Ranong, Chumphon, Kanchanaburi, and Trat Provinces. Lastly, Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) reported storms and winds in the southern parts of Viet Nam.
HIGHLIGHT:
According to the PAGASA, Tropical Cyclone (TC) DOKSURI (Philippine name: Egay), currently in Typhoon Category, further intensifies while moving westward over the Philippine Sea. As of the forecast on 24 July at 1000 HRS UTC+7, at most Tropical Cyclone Wind Signal no. 2 (minor to moderate threat to life and property) was raised over Catanduanes, central and eastern portion of Isabela, eastern portion of Albay, eastern portion of Camarines Sur, northern portion of Aurora, eastern portion of Quirino, eastern and central portion of Cagayan, and the northern portion of Camarines Norte. Further, DOKSURI is forecast to track west northwestward in the next 12 hours before turning northwestward and head closer to the landmass of Northern Luzon towards the Luzon Strait. DOKSURI is forecast to cross the Luzon Strait and make landfall or pass very close to the Babuyan Islands-Batanes area between 25-26 July, and may exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on 27 July.
As of 24 July, NDRRMC reported the following: 3.3K families (11.2K persons) affected and 1.2K persons displaced (348 persons inside 5 evacuation centres); for damages, 7 houses were reportedly damaged, and 3 road sections are currently not passable). Around 79 persons were pre-emptively evacuated in Region 6. As of reporting, NDRRMC is on RED Alert for Tropical Cyclone DOKSURI. The AHA Centre will continue to closely monitor the situation and stands ready to support the affected member state if the need arises.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) showed medium to high 7-day average rainfall spreading across Southern Lao PDR; Northern Cambodia; Sumatra, Kalimantan, and Papua in Indonesia; Southern Myanmar; the Philippines; Southern and Northeastern Thailand; and southern and northern parts of Viet Nam. As of reporting, apart from TC DOKSURI, INVEST 91W has persisted approximately 2,100 km Southeast of Davao Oriental, the Philippines. Global forecast models are in agreement that INVEST 91W will continue to meander slowly towards the north-northwest for the next 24 hours before picking up speed towards the northwest after 2 days, while ensembles are predicting a northeastward track before recurving to the northwest along a similar timeline. The potential for the development of a significant Tropical Cyclone within the next 24 hours is LOW (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Nine (9) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Semeru (alert level III), Ibu (alert level II), and Anak Krakatau (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 3), Taal (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Indonesia’s Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over the northern half of the Philippines; drier conditions are predicted over much of the southern ASEAN region; warmer than usual temperature is expected over much of the Maritime Continent and northern Mainland Southeast Asia. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a moderate increase in chance for a very heavy rainfall event to occur in Northern Philippines; and very likely in much of the equatorial region, and a moderate increase in chance in northern parts of Mainland Southeast Asia for extreme hot conditions. El Niño conditions are likely to be established during July – August 2023. During July and August, El Niño events tend to bring drier conditions to much of the southern ASEAN region.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS, DSWD;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
