REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the thirty-fourth week of 2024, the ASEAN region faced 24 disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, strong winds, and drought. Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam were affected by these disasters. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported flooding and landslides in North Maluku, Central Sulawesi, West Kalimantan, West Sulawesi, Aceh, Gorontalo, West Nusa Tenggara, and North Sumatra, as well as drought in West Java. The National Disaster Management Office (NDMO) of Lao PDR reported flooding in Xayaburi. In Malaysia, Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported flooding in Negeri Sembilan, Perak, Sarawak, and Selangor. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported flooding in Maguindanao del Sur. The Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) in Thailand reported flooding and landslides that began in Week 33 in Chiang Mai, Chiang Rai, Lampang, Nakhon Si Thammarat, Nan, Phayao, Phetchabun, Phrae, Phuket, Ranong, Rayong, Sukhothai, Udon Thani, and Yala. Lastly, the Viet Nam Disaster and Dyke Management Authority (VDDMA) recorded storms, flooding, strong winds, and landslides in Bac K?n, Cao Bang, Hoa Bình, Ha Giang, Ha Noi, Lao Cai, Nghe An, Dien Bien, Lam Dong, Thai Nguyen, Tay Ninh, and Vinh Phuc.
HIGHLIGHT:
The wet conditions that persisted in Mainland Southeast Asia and equatorial Maritime Southeast Asia resulted to fatal disasters in the region. In Indonesia, heavy rainfall triggered a flash flood in Ternate, North Maluku that resulted to 13 deaths and 6 missing persons. BNPB reported that search and rescue operation is ongoing for the missing individuals. Meanwhile, in Thailand, the monsoon trough and Southwest Monsoon continued to bring moderate to very heavy rainfall that had resulted to widespread flooding since Week 33. The flooding which initially affected 6 provinces, expanded to 13 provinces this week. In addition, continuous rainfall triggered flashfloods and landslides that caused 22 deaths, and 19 injuries. According to DDPM, about 30.9K households had been affected, of which 11.9K had remained affected as of this reporting period. Relevant government authorities have carried out necessary actions to address the situation.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicates a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across most of mainland Southeast Asia including Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia (Northern Sumatra, Kalimantan, North Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua), Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam. As of 0300H UTC+7 today, Tropical Cyclone SHANSHAN was estimated based on all available data at 1,490 km east northeast of extreme Northern Luzon (outside Philippines Area of Responsibility). SHANSHAN is tracking north-northwestward towards Japan and is unlikely to directly affect the weather condition in ASEAN (PAGASA, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Seven (7) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Marapi (alert level II), Semeru (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1), Taal (alert level 1), Kanlaon (alert level 2), and Bulusan (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted to continue over the eastern half of the equatorial region, with drier conditions predicted to develop over much of the western half. Elsewhere, wetter conditions are predicted over much of central and southern Mainland Southeast Asia and the Philippines, while drier conditions are predicted to persist over the southern Maritime Continent. Warmer temperatures are predicted over the western, southern, and eastern Maritime Continent. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance of very heavy rainfall over southern Myanmar, southern Thailand and coastal parts of Cambodia. Meanwhile, there is a small increase in chance for extreme hot conditions over much of the Maritime Continent, apart from the equatorial region. Over the western and southern Maritime Continent, an increase in chance of extreme hot conditions is predicted, along with less than average rainfall. La Niña conditions are expected to develop during August-September 2024 (ASMC).
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Lao PDR: NDMO;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PAGASA, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Viet Nam: VDDMA;
Various news agencies.
