REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the fourth week of 2026, a total of 32 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including earthquakes, floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related hazards, affecting Indonesia and the Philippines. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported incidents across Banten, Jakarta, West Java, Central Java, East Java, North Maluku, and West Nusa Tenggara. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) and Department of Social Welfare and Development (DSWD) reported impacts from a M5.2 earthquake in Sultan Kudarat (Region XII), as well as flooding in Davao de Oro (Region XI).
HIGHLIGHT:
In Indonesia, a landslide triggered by high-intensity rainfall occurred at approximately 0230H UTC+7 in Cisarua Sub-district, West Bandung Regency, West Java Province. According to BNPB, as of 25 Jan at 2300H UTC+7, a total of 17 casualties have been reported, and search and rescue (SAR) operations are ongoing, with 23 people rescued and 74 persons still reported missing as of the reporting time. Approximately 666 people remain displaced across 2 evacuation centres, and 52 houses have been reported as heavily damaged. Response efforts include coordination between relevant authorities, joint emergency response and search operations involving BPBD, BASARNAS, and other relevant agencies, on-site support and monitoring, continued search efforts for missing persons, provision of basic needs for displaced populations, and ongoing data collection and needs assessments.
The Vice President of Indonesia, accompanied by the Coordinating Minister for Human Development and Culture, the Head of BNPB, the Head of BASARNAS, the Minister for Women’s Empowerment and Child Protection (PPPA), the Vice Governor, and the Chief of Police, conducted a visit to the affected area. Weather Modification Operations (OMC) are being implemented until 27 January 2026 to reduce further rainfall risks. Joint response teams, local government officials, and community members continue data verification and area sweeps to confirm the presence of additional casualties, and all figures remain subject to change as evacuation, search operations, and displacement assessments are ongoing.
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across southern parts of Sumatra, Java, Bali, Nusa Tenggara Islands, Maluku, and Papua (Indonesia), Sarawak (Malaysia), and Mindanao and Visayas (the Philippines). As of this reporting, there is no active tropical cyclone being monitored in the ASEAN region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Ten (10) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG) and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Mount Marapi (alert level II), Semeru (alert level III), Ili Lewotolok (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Tall (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 3), Bulusan (alert level 1), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, there is no notable increase in chance of very heavy rainfall as well as extreme hot conditions. La Niña conditions are present and are predicted to weaken in February-March 2026. The typical impact of La Niña on Southeast Asia is wetter-than-average rainfall conditions, including for much of the Maritime Continent during December to February.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS, DSWD
Various news agencies.
