REGIONAL SUMMARY:
For the forty-ninth week of 2024, the ASEAN region experience 27 significant disasters, including floods, landslides, storms, and wind-related events. Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand were affected by these disasters. The Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) of Indonesia reported flooding, storms, landslides, and wind-related events in Aceh, Banten, West Java, Central Java, East Java, Lampung, South Sulawesi, Central Sulawesi, and North Sumatra. In the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported flooding, storms, and landslides in Region II and XIII. Additionally, monsoonal flooding that began in Week 48 continued to affect Malaysia and Thailand. In Malaysia, the Agensi Pengurusan Bencana Negara (NADMA) reported ongoing displacement of populations in Perak, Johor, Kelantan, and Melaka. Meanwhile, in Thailand, the Department of Disaster Prevention and Mitigation (DDPM) reported persistent flooding in Nakhon Si Thammarat and Songkhla.
HIGHLIGHT:
Monsoon rains have caused widespread flooding in Malaysia and Southern Thailand since week 48, as reported by NADMA and DDPM. In Malaysia, as of 9 Dec at 1500 HRS UTC+7, NADMA reported that the flooding continues to displace 80 families (264 persons) across nine evacuation centres in Perak, Johor, Kelantan, and Melaka. In Thailand, DDPM reported that the flooding persists in Nakhon Si Thammarat and Songkhla, affecting 25,086 families. Tragically, NADMA has reported 10 fatalities in Malaysia, while DDPM has reported 31 fatalities in Thailand due to these disasters.
Meanwhile, in Indonesia, prolonged heavy rainfall and river overflow have caused flooding, landslides, and storms in Banten and West Java Provinces, according to BNPB. These disasters have resulted in the loss of 20 lives, with 2 people missing, 5 injured, 19K families (65K persons) affected, and 6.6K persons displaced in Serang, Pandeglang, and Lebak in Banten, as well as Sukabumi and Lebak in West Java. Reports indicate damage to 9.6K houses, 38 bridges, 67 roads, 14 schools, 17 public facilities, 16 places of worship, and approximately 66K ha of agricultural areas. Relevant agencies are actively responding and continue to monitor and assess the situation
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) has indicated a 7-day average rainfall ranging from medium to high across Brunei Darussalam, most of Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Southern Thailand. As of this report, INVEST 91S, located approximately 1,060 km southwest of Jakarta, Indonesia, has the potential to bring heavy rainfall and strong winds to southern parts of Sumatra and Java. Additionally, INVEST 93S and 94S, situated around southern Nusa Tenggara and Southern Maluku, are also being monitored. These tropical disturbances may lead to heavy rainfall and strong winds extending to eastern parts of Java, including Bali, Nusa Tenggara, and the Maluku Islands (BMKG, JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Four (4) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), and the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS). Following recent eruption of Kanlaon Volcano on 9 Dec at 1403 HRS UTC+7, PHIVOLCS has raised the alert level of Kanlaon Volcano from Alert Level 2 (Increasing Unrest) to Alert Level 3 (Magmatic Unrest). Additionally, Mount Semeru (alert level II), Lewotobi Laki-laki (alert level IV), and Ibu (alert level III) in Indonesia, and Mayon Volcano (alert level 1) and Taal (alert level 1) in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and PHIVOLCS.
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia, parts of the northwestern and central Maritime Continent, and over parts of the southern Maritime Continent; and warmer than usual temperature is predicted over the much of the equatorial region. For the regional assessment of extremes, there is a small increase in chance over Southeastern Mainland Southeast Asia, northwestern Borneo, southern Maritime Continent and a moderate increase in chance over Malay Peninsula for very heavy rainfall event to occur; and there is a moderate increase in chance for extreme hot conditions to occur over Much of the equatorial region. Signs of La Niña conditions, with either ENSO neutral or short-lived La Niña conditions during December 2024 – March 2025.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Malaysia: NADMA;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS;
Thailand: DDPM;
Various news agencies.
