REGIONAL SUMMARY:
During the sixth week of 2026, a total of 23 disaster events were reported across the ASEAN region, including earthquakes, floods, landslides, and wind-related hazards, affecting Indonesia and the Philippines. In Indonesia, Badan Nasional Penanggulangan Bencana (BNPB) reported incidents across Bangka Belitung, Banten, West Java, Central Java, East Java, East Kalimantan, Lampung, West Nusa Tenggara, South Sulawesi, South Sumatra, and Yogyakarta. Meanwhile, in the Philippines, the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC) reported impacts from Tropical Cyclone PENHA (“Basyang”) in Regions VI, NIR, VII, CARAGA, and XI.
HIGHLIGHT:
A low-pressure area located east of Northeastern Mindanao, the Philippines, developed into a tropical depression on 3 February that was later named Tropical Cyclone PENHA (“Basyang” locally in the Philippines). PENHA subsequently made landfall over Surigao del Sur on 5 February and Bohol on 6 February (PAGASA). PENHA weakened into a low-pressure area on 7 February; however, in combination with a shear line, it continued to bring significant rainfall over several areas of the Philippines.
According to NDRRMC, TC PENHA has affected several regions in the Philippines, including VI, NIR, VII, CARAGA, and XI. As of 7 February at 0500H UTC+7, PENHA has impacted approximately 128K families (456K persons), with 4.2K families (11.5K persons) displaced across 206 evacuation centres (ECs) and 6.5K families (24K persons) displaced outside ECs in Regions VI, NIR, VII, CARAGA, and XI. Reported casualties include 3 fatalities (for validation). Reports of damages include 3 affected road sections (still impassable), 2 bridges (still impassable), and 445 damaged houses (407 partially and 38 totally damaged).
HYDRO-METEO-CLIMATOLOGICAL:
For the past week, data from the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC) indicated medium to high 7-day average rainfall across Indonesia and Malaysia, as well as the Philippines which associated with the development of Tropical Cyclone PENHA. Tropical Cyclone PENHA ( “Basyang”) reportedly weakened into a low-pressure area on 7 February (PAGASA). As of this reporting, there is no active tropical cyclone being monitored in the ASEAN region (JTWC).
GEOPHYSICAL:
Five (5) significant earthquakes (M>5.0) were recorded by Indonesia’s Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi, dan Geofisika (BMKG), Thai Meteorological Department (TMD) and Myanmar’s Department of Meteorology and Hydrology (DMH). Mount Marapi (alert level II), Semeru (alert level III), and Ibu (alert level II) in Indonesia, and Tall (alert level 1), Mayon (alert level 3), and Kanlaon (alert level 2) volcanoes in the Philippines reported recent volcanic activity according to Pusat Vulkanologi dan Mitigasi Bencana Geologi (PVMBG) and the Philippines Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS).
OUTLOOK:
According to the ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC), for the coming week, wetter conditions are predicted over most of the northeastern Maritime Continent; and drier than usual conditions for this time of the year are predicted over most of the central Maritime Continent. La Niña conditions are present and are predicted to weaken in February-March 2026. The typical impact of La Niña on Southeast Asia is wetter-than-average rainfall conditions, including for much of the Maritime Continent during December to February.
Sources:
ASEAN Disaster Monitoring & Response System (DMRS); ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ASMC); Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC);
Indonesia: BNPB, BMKG, PVMBG;
Philippines: NDRRMC, PHIVOLCS, DSWD
Myanmar: DMH;
Thailand: TMD;
Various news agencies.
